Among that group of running backs with at least 30 attempts that we just touched on for Davis, only two backs have been less efficient than Peyton Barber. An average carry from a player in that group has generated -0.02 Rushing NEP, while Barber averages a brutal -0.23.

Yes, part of that can be attributed to the blocking in front of him, but the rest of Tampa's backs have combined to average -0.16 Rushing NEP per carry. That's still a bad mark, but it's a significant jump from Barber's.

Rookie Ronald Jones has given us just a 10-carry sample to draw from, but in his limited work, he has the edge over Barber in both Rushing NEP per carry and Rushing Success Rate (the percentage of runs on which positive NEP are generated).

A healthy scratch in the first three weeks of the season, Jones made his NFL debut in Week 4, playing 32% of the team's offensive snaps in a blowout loss while Barber played a season-low 49%.

Bucs coaches seem to be well aware of how poorly Barber is doing, as his snap share has dropped in each game this season, and that decrease in workload is exactly why we could see Jones step into a much bigger role. It's going to be an u-hill battle running in this offense, but Jones is one of the rare players sitting on the waiver wire in a lot of leagues who could be a true lead back here soon.

He also stands to see a boost in efficiency from this week's matchup. In addition to being in a plus spot for the passing game, the Bucs' rushing attack will be up against a Falcons defense that our models have ranked 29th against the run.