Here, the context isn't as important with the opponent. The Bucs be trash no matter how you slice it. But the context does help you understand the early struggles of Baker Mayfield.
So far, Mayfield has started three games, and he's ranked 31st in Passing NEP per drop back out of 37 quarterbacks with at least 60 drop backs. This accounts for expected points lost on sacks and interceptions, neither of which have been entirely his fault, but the conditions leading to those sacks and picks are still in place entering this week.
With that said, Mayfield's offensive line and receivers don't deserve all the blame for this. A lot of it may come down to the opponents they have faced, as well.
In Mayfield's second start, they were hosting the Baltimore Ravens. They're second in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play this year, and that includes what they did while Jimmy Smith was suspended. Not many quarterbacks would perform well there, but Mayfield still had 18.98 FanDuel points.
The next week, the Cleveland Browns faced the Los Angeles Chargers. Their pass defense looked terrible to start the year with Joey Bosa sidelined, but a lot of those perceived struggles may have come down to the opponents they faced.
The table below splits what quarterbacks have done against the Chargers into two groups. The first is what they've done in the two games started by Patrick Mahomes and Jared Goff, the two quarterbacks leading the league in Passing NEP per drop back. The other is what they've done against the other quarterbacks they've faced.
| QBs Against Chargers | Attempts | TDs | INTs | Passing NEP/P | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goff and Mahomes | 63 | 7 | 1 | 32.77 | 56.92% |
| Other QBs | 149 | 5 | 7 | -25.77 | 42.94% |
The Chargers' defense doesn't seem as bad as it looks on paper, making Mayfield's struggles a lot easier to comprehend.
Now, Mayfield gets to square off with the Buccaneers, and they have been a get-right spot for quarterbacks all season long.
In five games, the Buccaneers have yet to hold an opposing passer to fewer than 330 yards through the air. Four of those five quarterbacks added three touchdowns passing with the lone exception being Nick Foles.
Even Mitchell Trubisky torched them for 354 yards and 6 touchdowns, and his struggles were much more pronounced entering his matchup with the Bucs than Mayfield's are. If Mayfield can't get it done here, then we can hit the panic button. But we likely shouldn't be there just yet.
Mayfield's $7,100, which is a pretty solid price on a slate where we need massive savings somewhere if we want to jam in guys like Elliott and Gurley. His pass-catchers can help push you a little further along that path.
With all the injuries Cleveland has had to its skill-position players, you do have a good idea of where the ball is going, and that's highly beneficial for DFS. That said, there are still some tough decisions to be made about which pass-catcher we should favor.
The table below shows the target shares of the top three options in the offense in the three games that Mayfield has started. A "deep" target is a target on a throw that travels at least 16 yards beyond the line of scrimmage.
| Past 3 Games | FanDuel Price | Overall Targets | Deep Targets | Red-Zone Targets |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jarvis Landry | $6,500 | 22.7% | 13.8% | 38.5% |
| David Njoku | $5,700 | 23.4% | 13.8% | 15.4% |
| Antonio Callaway | $4,800 | 18.8% | 31.0% | 23.1% |
David Njoku has the most raw targets on the team, and he plays at a position where safety is non-existent. He'll definitely be popular on Sunday, but he's worthy of investment despite that.
Jarvis Landry's matchup is ideal, and with all those red-zone targets leading to just one touchdown all year, touchdown regression is coming his way. But that's also a lower target share than we're used to seeing out of him. He's someone you can absolutely pair with Mayfield because his price is so low, but there are some legit concerns that still linger.
With Antonio Callaway, the concern isn't volume; it's coming through on that volume. Drops have plagued Callaway, and the team tried to cut back his playing time before all the injuries hit. The deep targets mean he needs to accidentally catch just one to hit, so with the price being low and playing time still a necessity, we can use Callaway in DFS.
If you want to save money at the position but are too fed up to use Callaway, then Damion Ratley deserves to be on your radar. Not only did he get eight targets last week, but three of them were deep looks, and he played 87.8% of the snaps. Ratley is a plus athlete who was explosive in college, so at $5,100, he's on the board for tournaments.