| Rank | Team | nERD | Rec | Playoff Odds | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | Buffalo Bills | -9.06 | 2-5 | 3.5% | 32 | 6 | -2 |
| 31 | Arizona Cardinals | -8.08 | 1-6 | 0.3% | 31 | 10 | -7 |
| 30 | Miami Dolphins | -6.87 | 4-3 | 22.9% | 25 | 26 | -1 |
| 29 | Tennessee Titans | -6.27 | 3-4 | 14.3% | 26 | 24 | +2 |
| 28 | San Francisco 49ers | -5.86 | 1-6 | 0.5% | 27 | 21 | 0 |
| 27 | Oakland Raiders | -5.74 | 1-5 | 0.4% | 22 | 27 | +5 |
| 26 | Detroit Lions | -4.57 | 3-3 | 24.4% | 12 | 31 | -1 |
| 25 | New York Giants | -4.24 | 1-6 | 1.3% | 23 | 25 | +1 |
| 24 | Atlanta Falcons | -3.19 | 3-4 | 20.0% | 6 | 32 | -5 |
| 23 | New York Jets | -2.32 | 3-4 | 14.8% | 28 | 3 | -2 |
Miami is above .500 and in the playoff hunt but just does not look like a good team at this point. The Dolphins have been without Ryan Tannehill, but their problems go beyond that, as they ranked 31st before his injury (plus, the passing game has actually been good with Brock Osweiler, who ranks 5th in NEP per pass and 11th in success rate among passers with at least five attempts; success rate measures the percentage of plays that yield positive NEP).
The Dolphins have been unable to run the ball, and their defense has had a hard time stopping opponents, due mostly to an inability to stop the pass. They rank 28th versus the run and 25 against the pass, per our schedule-adjusted numbers.
These struggles beg the question how Miami won four games in the first place, but this owes much to unsustainably strong performances in close games. All of their victories have come by eight points or less, including a three-point win over the Bears in Week 6.
By contrast, their defeats have come by 31, 10 and 11 points.
Miami has also been helped by a +2 turnover margin and an easier-than-average schedule, as measured by Pro-Football-Reference.com.
They obviously do not have to give those four wins back, but much of this suggests the results are outpacing the process.