| Rank | Teams | nERD | Rec | Playoff Odds | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Minnesota Vikings | 2.61 | 5-3-1 | 52.8% | 20 | 4 | 0 |
| 11 | Denver Broncos | 3.1 | 3-6 | 4.5% | 17 | 10 | -1 |
| 10 | Seattle Seahawks | 3.15 | 4-4 | 32.7% | 18 | 9 | -2 |
| 9 | Carolina Panthers | 3.98 | 6-2 | 75.5% | 7 | 17 | +2 |
| 8 | New Orleans Saints | 5.52 | 7-1 | 97.1% | 3 | 26 | +1 |
| 7 | Los Angeles Chargers | 5.67 | 6-2 | 88.5% | 6 | 18 | 0 |
| 6 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 6.15 | 5-2-1 | 84.1% | 9 | 11 | 0 |
| 5 | Baltimore Ravens | 6.23 | 4-5 | 23.2% | 11 | 3 | -2 |
| 4 | Chicago Bears | 6.54 | 5-3 | 68.7% | 8 | 8 | +1 |
| 3 | New England Patriots | 7.85 | 7-2 | 99.5% | 4 | 13 | +1 |
| 2 | Kansas City Chiefs | 8.54 | 8-1 | 100.0% | 1 | 29 | 0 |
| 1 | Los Angeles Rams | 10.2 | 8-1 | 99.8% | 2 | 22 | 0 |
The New Orleans Saints got what was quite possibly the biggest win of Week 9 thanks to a 45-35 victory over the Rams.
The win gives the Saints sole possession of the league’s third-best record, but while it bumped their nERD rating from +3.93 to +5.52 (the fourth-biggest increase of the week), they actually only moved up one spot.
The Saints are Super Bowl contenders because they can do the most important thing in the NFL -- passing the ball -- better than almost anyone. They are not higher in our rankings though because they are deficient in what is probably the next most critical area: pass defense.
New Orleans came into Week 9 more than two full standard deviations above the mean in terms of passing success rate, but a standard deviation worse than average in pass defense.
This disparity was in play on Sunday as well, as Drew Brees was nearly flawless and was second in the league in Week 9 with a 61.1% passing success rate (among players with multiple pass attempts). His counterpart Jared Goff was seventh with a mark of 55.0%.
In terms of overall defense, the Saints are 26th in opponent-adjusted NEP, tied for 28th in both yards per play (6.3) and points per drive (2.6).
Unlike their division rivals in Atlanta, the New Orleans offense has been good enough to keep its bad defense from dragging the team into the middle of the pack; while the Atlanta Falcons' offense has been great, the New Orleans attack has been in another stratosphere in terms of efficiency.
At the same time, that defense has been bad enough to keep them from the upper echelons of our rankings.