This weekend's game between the New England Patriots and Tennessee Titans is not one of the projected shootouts with the total sitting at just 46.5. That's something to keep in mind. But it also may be a bit more attractive than it seems at first glance, justifying a look at some plus matchups on both sides.
Entering the game, the Patriots are ranked first in situation-neutral pace, according to Football Outsiders. That amplifies the play volume for the Titans, which is a positive for them.
The Titans, though, rank 21st on this list, which could cause some concerns around building game stacks here or getting too enthused about any of the Patriots' assets. That number, though, is actually better than where the Titans are generally perceived due to their previous coaching staff's pace-sucking ways (they were 28th in situation-neutral pace last year). There's also reason to believe it could start to improve.
As mentioned by Pat Thorman of Pro Football Focus in his weekly pace breakdown, the best way to attack both defenses in this game is through the air due to a pair of run-stuffing units. That's going to help inflate the pace a bit as incomplete passes stop the clock.
Additionally, a lot of the Titans' pace concerns seem to come from when Marcus Mariota was hurt. Two of their three slowest games this year from a seconds-per-snap perspective came in the two games Blaine Gabbert started. Whenever Blaine Gabbert is playing quarterback, you want to slow things down and cut down on the sample size of the game. The Titans did that and won both.
In Tennessee's 28-14 win on Monday night, they had their fastest pace in a win yet this year, running one play every 29.94 seconds. Their previous low mark for a win was 31.32 against the Philadelphia Eagles back in Week 4, another game where Mariota looked healthy.
Things seem to be trending up for the Titans' offense, and that figures to put them in play against the Patriots' defense. It should also force the Patriots to keep the foot on the throttle, which is beneficial for Tom Brady and company from a fantasy perspective.
There aren't many better matchups in which to air things out, either. The Titans enter this week ranked 26th in Adjusted Defensive Passing NEP per play, numberFire's schedule-adjusted metric that measures a team's ability to stop the pass. They've allowed five different wide receivers and one tight end to top the 100-yard mark against them, and two players did so on fewer than six targets.
That seems to be something Brady could exploit. With that said, though, the overall fantasy output has been fairly muted here this year.
Even in a season where quarterback scoring has been off the charts, Brady is yet to score more than 30 points, and he has topped 23 points just once. Is that actually worth $8,300 on FanDuel?
On some other slates, possibly not. If this game were played in Week 9, we absolutely would have preferred either Jared Goff or Drew Brees in what looked to be a back-and-forth affair. This slate doesn't have many of those, though, and Brady is the cheapest he has been all year. That seems to be enough to justify using him.
As far as the pass-catchers go, that'll revolve around the health of tight end Rob Gronkowski. Gronk was able to practice Wednesday, but he did the same last week before ultimately sitting. So let's go through how we should handle the team in both scenarios.
The dynamic of the Patriots' pass-catchers changed back in Week 6 when Josh Gordon's snap rate finally became that of a starter. From that game on, we have a sample of two games with Gronkowski and two games without him. This first chart looks at the two games where Gronk has played, with a "deep" target being any target at least 16 yards downfield.
| With Gronk | FanDuel Price | Overall Targets | Deep Targets | Red-Zone Targets |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James White | $7,800 | 26.3% | 11.8% | 12.5% |
| Julian Edelman | $7,300 | 22.4% | 29.4% | 50.0% |
| Rob Gronkowski | $6,900 | 15.8% | 29.4% | 12.5% |
| Josh Gordon | $6,700 | 19.7% | 17.6% | 12.5% |
And here is that same table in the two games they've played without Gronk.
| Without Gronk | FanDuel Price | Overall Targets | Deep Targets | Red-Zone Targets |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| James White | $7,800 | 24.3% | 0.0% | 28.6% |
| Julian Edelman | $7,300 | 25.7% | 15.4% | 35.7% |
| Josh Gordon | $6,700 | 24.3% | 69.2% | 21.4% |
James White and Julian Edelman appear to be in play no matter what Gronkowski's status may be. Edelman, in fact, seems to be the top play in this offense with his market share numbers being stout in both splits.
As for White, that Week 6 game featured both Gronkowski and Sony Michel -- who is also expected to return this week -- and White still had six carries and seven targets. As such, he and Edelman should be on your board regardless of the status of Gronkowski and Michel.
Josh Gordon is the guy who fluctuates the most based on Gronkowski's availability. It's worth noting that Gordon had to deal with Tre'Davious White in one of the games with Gronk, but even in the other game, Gordon had just 5 receptions for 42 yards. If Gronk sits, you're going to want to fire up Gordon for sure. He's not totally off the radar if Gronkowski plays, but it certainly would mute the enthusiasm around using Gordon.
As for Gronkowski himself, this may not be a bad time to trot him out there if he plays.
While dealing with this back injury, Gronkowski was able to play one game, which came in Week 8. In that game, Gronkowski tied a season-high with eight total targets and four deep targets. He didn't really come through on that usage, but it showed that a solid usage day is still within his range of outcomes when he's out there. Like Brady, this is the cheapest Gronkowski has been all year, so if he's able to go, it's likely worth giving him some run in tournaments.