Over/Under: 54.5
Buccaneers Implied Team Total: 29.00
49ers Implied Team Total: 25.50
Well, the Fitzmagic has died, but it lives on inside all of us. Regardless, this is the highest-totaled game on the main slate, so there should be fantasy goodness galore. While Nick Mullens against Jameis Winston doesn't scream shootout, both defenses are so bad that there are good plays around the board. Thankfully, offensive coordinator Todd Monken is back calling plays. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers average 29.3 points per game when he calls the offense (good for seventh-best in the league) and just three points when he doesn't.
George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers
FanDuel Price: $7,500
It's always dangerous to throw around the term 'easy money' in DFS, but this might be as close as it gets. Tampa Bay allows the second-most FanDuel points per game to tight ends. Enter San Francisco 49ers stud tight end George Kittle, who's averaging 15.8 points per game across two Nick Mullens starts and is coming off a season-high ten targets in a game where the Niners were playing catch-up down the stretch. As 3.5-point road dogs, they may face a similar script. Kittle is a great cash option as the only surefire pass-catcher on this team.
Nick Mullens, QB, San Francisco 49ers
FanDuel Price: $6,000
I didn't expect to talk up two players from the lower-totaled team, but it's absurd that Mullens is the stone minimum this week. Tampa Bay has been a top-three quarterback matchup all year and just gave up 230 yards and two touchdowns to Eli Manning. Mullens' efficiency predictably came back to earth in his last game, but he still managed 250 yards and a touchdown, and it's worth noting the Giants defense he faced has been a bottom-half quarterback matchup. Now he gets an ideal showdown against a reeling Buccaneers defense that gave up 38 points to the Giants last week. The possibility of an in-game benching makes him a tougher sell in cash, but Mullens' minimum price makes him a legitimate GPP punt this week.
Others to Consider
Given he's scored 22.1 and 32.7 points in the two games he's played start-to-finish, there's a strong argument that Jameis Winston is underpriced at $7,500. With the possibility of an in-game benching hanging over him like a cloud, he's tough to trust in cash. But the upside is prevalent as a strong-totaled home favorite in a good matchup.
Mike Evans ($7,900) was one of my favorite GPP plays last week, and boy did he smash. Considering much of that production came with Jameis under center, he's definitely in play again this week. The Niners rank as the 10th-worst pass defense per our metrics. That said, last week I loved Evans because he was underpriced and coming off two down performances, ensuring low ownership. Now his price has risen by $500 and he's coming off a big game.
Adam Humphries ($5,600) is priced far too low for how many routes he's running. Incredibly, he's also the PPR WR13 since Week 6. The Niners have allowed the most points in the league to the slot and Winston has targeted Humphries on nearly 19% of his throws, per Rich Hribar of Rotoworld. Humphries is a sneaky great play this week. You're on your own trying to decide between DeSean Jackson ($6,000) and Chris Godwin ($5,500). If forced to pick one, it's Godwin based on price and red zone role.
With O.J. Howard sadly on IR, Cameron Brate ($4,400) is firmly back on the radar as a cheap punt. He's simply priced way too low given his red zone role and likely monster snap increase with Howard out. His price should rise each week from here on out.
While the matchup is ideal for San Francisco's receivers, it's truly tough to decipher who will have the best game. Last time out, Marquise Goodwin ($5,000) managed just five targets, matching a season-high. The only legitimate play left on the Niners' side is Matt Breida ($6,400). Finally looking healthy, Breida dusted the Giants for a season-high 17 carries, putting up 132 yards from scrimmage and two total touchdowns. He'll likely go overlooked in a great matchup.