| Rank | Team | nERD | Rec | Playoff Odds | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Houston Texans | 2.36 | 8-3 | 97.0% | 15 | 9 | +2 |
| 11 | Seattle Seahawks | 2.99 | 6-5 | 75.1% | 11 | 15 | 0 |
| 10 | Minnesota Vikings | 3.53 | 6-4-1 | 70.3% | 20 | 3 | 0 |
| 9 | Denver Broncos | 4.05 | 5-6 | 16.6% | 14 | 6 | 0 |
| 8 | Baltimore Ravens | 6.11 | 6-5 | 37.7% | 16 | 1 | -2 |
| 7 | New England Patriots | 6.13 | 8-3 | 99.7% | 5 | 17 | 0 |
| 6 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 6.63 | 7-3-1 | 93.7% | 7 | 7 | -1 |
| 5 | Chicago Bears | 7.07 | 8-3 | 97.3% | 13 | 4 | -2 |
| 4 | Kansas City Chiefs | 7.55 | 9-2 | 100.0% | 2 | 26 | 0 |
| 3 | Los Angeles Chargers | 7.69 | 8-3 | 89.8% | 4 | 12 | +5 |
| 2 | Los Angeles Rams | 11.06 | 10-1 | 100.0% | 3 | 16 | 0 |
| 1 | New Orleans Saints | 12.04 | 10-1 | 100.0% | 1 | 14 | 0 |
We'll have to table further discussion of offense versus defense to ask ourselves, Just what are the Seattle Seahawks?"
Their 6-5 record suggests this is a slightly above-average team, as does their +3.0 average scoring margin (which is 11th in the league). A look at their strength of schedule paints a brighter picture, as they have played a slate that is tied for the sixth-most challenging in the league, according to Pro Football Reference. The fact they have been able to outscore these challenging opponents at an above-average level suggests Seattle is one of the league’s better teams.
The peripheral metrics are less enthused.
The Seahawks are tied for 16th in yards per play (5.6) but 25th in terms of yards allowed per play (6.2); this -0.6 margin is tied for 23rd-worst in the league. They also came into Week 12 ranked 27th in Success Rate margin (-3.7%), before suffering through an egregiously bad -17.7% Success Rate deficit on Sunday.
Seattle has managed to overcome these struggles by dominating the turnover battle; only four teams this season can best the Seahawks’ plus-eight margin here, as they have the third-fewest giveaways per drive and have forced the eighth-most takeaways per drive.
It’s become a common refrain in this feature but it is still worth repeating: turnovers are largely random events and turnover margins tend to regress to the mean in the long run.
Seattle isn’t forcing many incomplete passes (ranking 25th in completion percentage) but is tied for the third-highest interception rate in the league (completion percentage tends to be a stronger predictor of future interception rate than past interception rate).
On the other side of the ball, the Seahawks' offense has recovered 75.0% of its fumbles, the second-highest mark in the league. It is tied for the fourth-most fumbles per game but the sixth-fewest fumbles lost per game.
The Seahawks’ fumble recovery and offensive interception rates are more in line with what we would expect given how often their opponents' fumbles and the level of Russell Wilson’s completion rate, respectively.
Still, we should not expect Seattle’s defense to keep intercepting passes at an elite rate, nor for its offense to keep recovering such a high rate of its own fumbles. Regression here would bring down the team’s elite turnover margin, which could be trouble given how the Seahawks’ opponents have moved the ball so much better against their defense than they have against their foes'.