Chalk

The top three scoring options at quarterback are all on the main slate -- and that should lead to some very heavy ownership. While Drew Brees played last night and is off the main slate, those are likely to grab the majority of ownership.

Our expected top performer -- with no surprise -- is Patrick Mahomes, who was absent from the last two main slates, playing on a Monday night then having a bye. We project Mahomes for 27.4 FanDuel points, and that high total is largely due to the fact that he is facing a very poor AFC West foe in the Oakland Raiders, who rank second-worst per our rankings.

Our second-ranked signal-caller is Cam Newton, projected for 26.2 FanDuel Points, and clocks in $800 cheaper than Mahomes. Per our heat map, the Carolina Panthers are 3.5-point favorites and possess a healthy implied team total of 29.0 points as they attack an ugly Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense.

Last but not least, Jared Goff and the 32.25 implied team total of the Rams also returns to the main slate. We have Goff pegged for 26.1 FanDuel points, just behind Newton, and he takes aim at the third-worst pass defense of the Detroit Lions.

Pivot

Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts: $8,200 (at Jacksonville Jaguars)

While the Jacksonville Jaguars have been known for their strong pass defense in the past, and still clock in a solid 12th per our metrics, they could be missing the services of Jalen Ramsey this weekend. If so, Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts passing offense makes for a very intriguing play.

The Colts, who own the second-quickest situation-neutral pace in the NFL, performed well against this same defense a few weeks ago, throwing for 285 yards and three touchdowns. And while the Jags held Josh Allen to only 160 passing yards a week ago, they've been rinsed in recent weeks by Carson Wentz (286 passing yards, three touchdowns), Patrick Mahomes (313 yards), and Ben Roethlisberger (314 yards, two touchdowns).

The pass-heavy Colts offense, which checks in 11th in pass-to-run ratio (1.63), possess a solid 25.75 implied team total, and we project Luck for 21.1 FanDuel points on the day. His tournament upside is real -- projected at 36.0 FanDuel points, or 4.39x value per $1,000. For a spicy pivot off the expensive, elite tier of quarterbacks, consider spending up for Luck.