| Rank | Team | nERD | Rec | Playoff Odds | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | Arizona Cardinals | -10.13 | 3-9 | 0.0% | 32 | 11 | 0 |
| 31 | Miami Dolphins | -9.72 | 6-6 | 3.7% | 25 | 31 | -1 |
| 30 | New York Jets | -9.47 | 3-9 | 0.0% | 30 | 18 | -1 |
| 29 | Oakland Raiders | -8.87 | 2-10 | 0.0% | 24 | 30 | +2 |
| 28 | San Francisco 49ers | -8.45 | 2-10 | 0.0% | 28 | 25 | 0 |
| 27 | Detroit Lions | -5.39 | 4-8 | 0.2% | 18 | 29 | 0 |
| 26 | Buffalo Bills | -5.35 | 4-8 | 0.0% | 31 | 6 | 0 |
| 25 | Cincinnati Bengals | -4.08 | 5-7 | 1.1% | 19 | 23 | -3 |
| 24 | Washington Redskins | -3.79 | 6-6 | 27.0% | 26 | 16 | -5 |
| 23 | New York Giants | -3.53 | 4-8 | 0.1% | 21 | 22 | +2 |
Miami’s record suggests the Dolphins are a roughly average team. However, their nERD rating suggests they are terrible.
What's the cause of this disconnect?
Miami has been outscored by 56 points this season (4.7 points per game), which is the eighth-worst margin in the league. Making matters look even worse, the Dolphins have played the third-easiest schedule in the league, per Pro Football Reference.
Things don’t really look better on a per-play basis either, as they have been out-gained by 0.9 yards per play.
Their only win against an above-average team came against the Bears at home in a bizarre overtime game. Miami’s other wins came over the Titans (No. 21 in our ratings), the No. 30 Raiders, the No. 26 Bills, and the No. 29 Jets (in a season sweep).
Despite this weak schedule, Miami’s wins have not been convincing; each one was by only one score, while only one of their six losses was by single digits.