In the past, we've always been wary of the Pittsburgh Steelers' passing offense on the road, and that's where they'll be this weekend. But there are a couple of factors in place now that haven't always been there that should push us onto Ben Roethlisberger and friends.
The first thing to consider -- and the most obvious -- is that James Conner will miss this game due to an ankle injury. The Steelers have thrown 72.7% of the time with Conner off the field, according to The Quant Edge's injury tool, compared to a 65.0% pass rate with Conner out there. His absence should force them to skew more toward the pass.
The second factor is that the Steelers are just throwing more in general on the road this year than they have in the past.
The table below shows Roethlisberger's pass attempts per game on the road over the past couple of seasons. It used to be a spot where they'd run Le'Veon Bell into the ground, but with him sitting out, it has been a totally different team.
| Roethlisberger on the Road | Pass Attempts Per Game |
|---|---|
| 2018 | 45.8 |
| 2017 | 32.6 |
| 2016 | 35.4 |
| 2015 | 37.7 |
At quarterback, we always care more about efficiency than volume. And if you look at Roethlisberger's home/road splits this year, you'll see that he averages 21.20 FanDuel points on the road compared to 23.90 at home. So the volume alone can't erase the entire gap.
This concern gets erased when you see the teams that Roethlisberger has faced. Of the six games Roethlisberger has played on the road, four have come against top-five pass defenses, based on numberFire's metrics. In the two games against lesser defenses, Roethlisberer has topped 350 passing yards both times, averaging 23.04 FanDuel points per game. And the Raiders ain't a top-five unit.
Instead of going up against the best of the best, Roethlisberger will be facing numberFire's 32nd-ranked pass defense. They've allowed 28 passing touchdowns compared to just 9 interceptions, and 6 of the 12 quarterbacks they've faced have thrown at least 3 touchdowns. Only Patrick Mahomes has a higher salary than Roethlisberger, but that's fully justified in this spot and with Conner out.
The other effect of Conner being out is that it frees up some targets in the offense. A portion of those will likely go to Jaylen Samuels -- more on him in a second -- but it can make us feel even better about the high-end options.
The most relevant sample here is looking at the Steelers' targets since Vance McDonald's snap rate hit 60% for the first time in Week 4. Here's the distribution from that point on.
| Week 4 On | FanDuel Price | Overall Targets | Deep Targets | Red-Zone Targets |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonio Brown | $8,800 | 25.7% | 42.9% | 27.9% |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | $7,500 | 22.1% | 30.2% | 30.2% |
| Vance McDonald | $5,500 | 12.6% | 1.6% | 9.3% |
McDonald's shares are low, but that's universal at his position. He and Ryan Switzer -- who practiced in full on Wednesday despite a concussion -- are the two guys who figure to benefit most from having Conner out. McDonald's still a viable option despite the numbers above.
The overall target shares for Antonio Brown and JuJu Smith-Schuster are lower than you'd think, but that's partially erased by just how often the team throws. Brown still has 13 targets in three straight games, and Smith-Schuster has hit double-digit targets six times this year. With those two hogging all the high-leverage looks, as well, there's plenty to like with both.
You also know that both have slate-busting upside. Just within the past two games, each player has had 150 or more receiving yards (189 for Smith-Schuster in Week 12 and 154 for Brown in Week 13). Here, it's likely wise to split your exposure down the middle, get plenty of both in stacks with Roethlisberger, and just see which one blows up.
If you're looking to save some money while still getting exposure to the Steelers' passing game, that's where Samuels comes into play. He just comes with an opportunity cost.
The positive of Samuels is that he is far better suited for work in the passing game than Stevan Ridley, which should lead to a hefty snap rate if the Steelers keep with their pass-happy ways. Samuels had more than twice as many receptions his senior year in college (75) than Ridley has in his eight-year NFL career (30).
The negative is that using Samuels means you're able to use one less true workhorse back. As we'll discuss in the next section, the high-salary backs are pretty attractive this week, and we'll want plenty of exposure to each of them. Using Samuels in your flex spot means you're missing out on one of them.
As such, Samuels is relegated to being a tournament-only play when we're doing multiple entries. There, we can still make sure we get a proper amount of the others while benefiting in spots from Samuels' tasty $4,600 salary. There are also a boatload of terrific high-salary receivers available this week, and Samuels allows us to get up to them without throwing a complete dart at the position.