The Indianapolis Colts had all the key ingredients for a big game on the ground last week. We just didn't realize it until it was too late.
Thankfully, we can correct that wrong in Week 16.
Let's start with the Colts' side of things here to explain why Marlon Mack's explosion made complete sense. It all revolves around their center, Ryan Kelly.
Kelly had missed the previous three games due to injury, and Mack's performance slid. He failed to top 10.6 FanDuel points in all three games, bottoming out at 3.8 points against the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 13. You can understand why Mack was on just 1.62% of all rosters in the FanDuel Sunday Million.
But Kelly's return helps explain Mack's resurgence. The table below compares what Mack has done in games that Kelly has played versus the three he missed. "Rushing NEP per carry" is the expected points added on a per-carry basis, and Success Rate is the percentage of carries that have increased the team's expected points for the drive.
| Mack in 2018 | Yards Per Carry | Rushing NEP Per Carry | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| With Ryan Kelly | 5.04 | 0.20 | 52.1% |
| Without Ryan Kelly | 3.92 | -0.09 | 35.1% |
Mack's Success Rate with Kelly would rank second out of 42 backs with at least 100 carries if it were his full-season mark. His Success Rate without Kelly would be 34th. Offensive-line health matters.
Because Mack doesn't get much work in the passing game -- he has just 5.8% of the team's targets since returning from injury -- his role is still far from perfect. Targets help boost a player's upside, and if the Colts were to fall behind, there's a chance they'd just shift to using Nyheim Hines in the backfield. We have to keep that in mind. That's just less of a concern in Week 16.
The Colts are at home for a second straight week, hosting the New York Giants. The Giants are fresh off of getting shutout at home last week, and it looks like they could be without one of their key pieces again.
Pat Shurmur said he doesn’t expect WR Odell Beckham (quad), WR Russell Shepard (ankle) and C Spencer Pulley (calf) to practice Wednesday. Reiterated no plan to shut down Beckham. #Giants
— Jordan Raanan (@JordanRaanan) December 19, 2018
The Giants did beat up on Washington in Week 14 without Odell Beckham, but their offense is undoubtedly worse without him. Another absence for him would help justify the Colts being favored by 10.
That's a plus for the game script leading to another heavy dosage of Mack. The matchup is there, too.
For the full season, the Giants rank 24th in Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play, which takes into account the schedule they've faced. That's pretty bad as is, but it also includes what they did with Damon Harrison on the team. Things have been much worse since his trade to the Detroit Lions.
| RBs vs. Giants | Yards Per Carry | Rushing NEP Per Carry | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| With Damon Harrison | 3.87 | -0.01 | 36.1% |
| Since Trade | 4.85 | 0.09 | 46.2% |
For some context, Ezekiel Elliott this year is averaging 0.08 Rushing NEP per carry with a 45.1% Success Rate. Running backs have been even better than that when facing this defense since the Harrison trade.
This -- combined with Mack's efficiency and Kelly's health -- means that Mack should be successful on the carries he gets. The 10-point spread in the Colts' favor should allow those carries to be plentiful.
If you're playing in cash games, it's fair to have some level of skepticism there around Mack due to the limitations in his passing-game role discussed earlier. His floor still isn't quite as high as we'd like to imagine because NFL games can get wacky in a hurry.
But for tournaments, Mack sets up to be a baller play. Even with his lack of involvement in the passing game, he has still topped 25 FanDuel points 3 times, and at a salary of $7,000, that'll absolutely work. It's not point-chasing if Mack's situation is as good as it was last week, and in this instance, it may actually be even better.