We're starting with Tyler Boyd intentionally so as to make a certain point. Just because Player A has better metrics than Player B does not always imply that Player A is the more talented player. Boyd is not A.J. Green by any means. But what Boyd did in 2018 was fully noteworthy and should ensure he keeps getting steady volume next year.
When Cincinnati Bengals quarterbacks were targeting Boyd this year, they averaged 0.73 Target NEP per target. When they threw to Green, that went down to 0.41, which was still above the league average of 0.23 and well beyond that of guys like John Ross. It just wasn't quite on par with Boyd.
Again, this doesn't mean that Boyd is better than Green by any means. Instead, it shows that Boyd was fully capable of taking advantage of the softer coverage afforded to him by Green's presence. Teams aren't going to stop loading up on resources to slow down Green, meaning Boyd should continue to see easier matchups in 2019, as well.
This also illustrates that the Bengals' offense wasn't really that bad when they were healthy (something we also saw in looking at Joe Mixon with the running backs). Through Week 8 (when Green got hurt), Andy Dalton was averaging 0.18 Passing NEP per drop back, which is equivalent to Target NEP except that it also accounts for the expected points lost due to sacks. The league average mark was 0.12. Dalton was playing better than your average quarterback when his receivers were healthy, and that was even with their center, Billy Price, missing six of those games.
If Boyd is good enough to keep getting volume and the Bengals might not suck next year, where does that put his fantasy stock this offseason?
To get an idea of that, here's a look at the market shares Boyd and Green had in the eight full games they played together. Here, a "deep" target is classified as being at least 16 yards downfield.
| In 2018 | Target Share | Deep Target Share | Red-Zone Target Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| A.J. Green | 26.8% | 40.8% | 34.2% |
| Tyler Boyd | 23.2% | 26.5% | 19.5% |
Boyd got a solid number of overall targets, and a good number of them were of the high-leverage variety. That equates to his being a dependable target for fantasy.
In early DRAFT best-ball leagues, Boyd is coming off the board at pick 66.30 on average, the 26th-ranked wide receiver. Despite a really solid season, Boyd's not going to cost you a ton to draft, assuming things stay where they're at. As long as you buy into the possibility that the Bengals could rebound when healthy in 2019, it makes sense to give Boyd a sniff this offseason.