Week 15 is a tough one for new running backs. Some of the easiest matchups are afforded to teams with elite backs and clear-cut number-ones: Pittsburgh, Kansas City, Chicago, Detroit, Baltimore, Dallas, Houston.

But Fred Jackson has a weirdly average matchup. The Packers entered Week 14 ranked 22nd in rush defense, according to our NEP metrics. But they were 14th in fantasy points allowed to backs.

Well, Jackson has been at 12 half-PPR fantasy points for three consecutive weeks, and as a result of trailing to the Broncos, he saw 14 targets in Week 14. Chasing game script is tough, but there could be more of the same against Green Bay, leaving Jackson with a beatable rushing matchup and an easy path to dump-off passes underneath.