Another two “bust” factors that come into play here are the mis-perception of talent and the mis-assessment of risk. Nobody on this list is a certain bust; if they were, no NFL team would have selected them to begin with.

New Denver Broncos’ outside linebacker Shane Ray appears to have a few key components that could make him a major first-round bust. First of all, Ray tested extremely poorly at the NFL Combine this past year. For an edge rusher who produced as well as he did in college and appeared quick off of every snap on tape, his explosiveness metrics are lackluster at best, as shown on Mock Draftable. The primary explosiveness metrics are broad jump, vertical jump, and 10-yard dash. His score ranks in the 68th percentile for broad jump, 32nd for vertical jump, and 30th for ten-yard dash among all outside linebackers. He also doesn’t have the flexibility to bend the edge, as evidenced by his 1st percentile three-cone drill, and 6th percentile short shuttle scores.

On top of this, he was stopped by police the Monday before the NFL Draft for possession of marijuana. While not damning in and of itself, this is disconcerting that a player who might have been drafted in the top-10 would not have the judgment to avoid legal troubles the week before the Draft, especially when his athleticism was so in question. Poor testing and drug concerns give this resumé quite a bit of taint.