With 2014’s influx of immediate rookie receiver standouts, Jarvis Landry’s contributions were often overshadowed by his bigger-framed contemporaries. But Landry’s contributions to the Dolphins last season are getting some love according to his current ADP of WR28, a full 11 spots higher than numberFire’s projection as the 39th-best receiver for the upcoming 2015 season.
Why the disparity? Well, folks may be over-reacting to the fact that Mike Wallace, the Dolphins’ previous number-one receiver, has left South Beach, assuming that Landry may be getting additional volume as a result, while ignoring the primary role Landry serves in the Dolphins offense as the reliable slot receiver.
You see, not every slot receiver is asked to be Randall Cobb circa 2014 or Victor Cruz circa 2011, racking up 1,200-plus receiving yards and scoring double-digit touchdowns. The slot receiver’s role has typically been that of a guy who can reel in short yardage passes and move the sticks. As a position, the slot receiver isn’t accustomed to hitting home runs but rather productive singles. Landry fits far more closely into this mold than the Cobb’s and Cruz’s.
In fact, Landry’s reliability may be part of the reason why he’s getting drafted so high. But his reliability, an asset in daily fantasy cash games, can be a liability in season-long leagues because his production ceiling is so low. Landry’s average PPR outing resulted in 11.59 fantasy points per game last season. With a low standard deviation of 6.01 points, 68% of Landry’s outings fell between 5.58 and 17.60 fantasy points per game in PPR leagues.
While that’s solid production, and certainly flex-worthy, I prefer my low end WR2’s or high-end WR3’s to come with a little more upside. numberFire’s algorithms don’t project newly acquired Kenny Stills or Devante Parker to outperform Landry, and my personal sense is that Landry will end up being the highest scoring Dolphins wideout in 2015 as well. But the role Landry occupies does not lend itself very often to fantasy upside.
A good alternative to Landry this season would be drafting Marques Colston, currently going off of draft boards as the WR48, while numberFire projects him to finish as the WR37. With a nearly identical PPR fantasy points per game output in 2014 (11.51), a slightly lower standard deviation of week-to-week scoring, and increased opportunity with the exit of Kenny Stills, Colston can serve as a flex or solid bench option on your fantasy squad can be found much cheaper than the price Landry is currently commanding.