The hype with which Robert Griffin III walked into the NFL was stratospheric. During that 2012 season, it seemed as if the hype surrounding Griffin was justified. Griffin posted top-10 numbers in terms of points contributed to his team in terms of NEP, bested all quarterbacks in Rushing NEP, and partly because of his rushing acumen, finished fifth in the NFL in fantasy points per game among signal callers.
| Season | Pass NEP | Rushing NEP | Total Touchdowns | Total Yards | Fantasy PPG |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 73.63 | 59.29 | 27 | 4,015 | 24.23 |
| 2013 | 20.86 | 7.62 | 16 | 3,962 | 21 |
| 2014 | -36.84 | -0.39 | 5 | 1,870 | 13.81 |
But then, the playoffs came, and Griffin tore his ACL, and things haven’t been right since. After waging an aggressive campaign to return to the field and be ready for the 2013 season opener, Griffin didn’t look the same all season.
While still racking up an impressive 21 fantasy points per game, his real football skills had clearly taken a hit, as demonstrated by his barely positive Passing NEP per drop back numbers in 2013. Basically, in his second season, it took Griffin 25 throws to contribute one point to his team’s point total. That’s, umm, not very impressive.
But not very impressive is better than terrible, which is how any objective observer would characterize his 2014 season. The numbers back that up as well. Griffin’s 2014 performance across nine games effectively lost the Redskins 37 points.
But, on a non-analytical note, signs coming out of training camp are looking better for Griffin and head coach Jon Gruden’s relationship. Gruden has praised the improvement of Griffin in June’s OTA’s and named Griffin the starter. With Griffin, the coach’s public confidence seems to be a key factor in his performance, so Gruden may be trying a different tactic to harness Griffin’s talents.
To be clear, numberFire still projects Griffin to finish as the 22nd best quarterback in terms of fantasy points, so chances aren't great that he will be a worthy fantasy starter. But he’s currently going off the boards as the 26th quarterback on average and the 163rd pick overall. This means that in 10-team leagues Griffin will likely be on the waiver wire come the beginning of the season, and he may be a decent backup with some upside.
Griffin has impressive weapons surrounding him in wide receivers Desean Jackson and Pierre Garcon, and young tight end Jordan Reed. He’s also another season removed from his ACL tear in 2012, so perhaps the Redskins will allow a little bit more mobility from the 2012 Draft’s second overall pick.
After all, 45% of the total points in terms of NEP that Griffin contributed to the Redskins in 2012 came via the quarterback rush. The Redskins, if they are wise, will find a way teach Griffin about the career benefits of sliding before a big hit rains down on him so that they can turn his legs loose. Fantasy owners, I’m sure, would rejoice as well.
If Griffin’s confidence can be restored and if he’s allowed to use his talents to escape the pocket more frequently, don’t be surprised if Griffin significantly outperforms his current ADP.