Projected Record: 6.7-9.3
Playoff Probability: 17.2%
Division Probability: 9.3%
Super Bowl Probability: 0.4%
nERD: -6.52

Not much went right for the Bucs last season, winners of just 1 of their last 12 games. Gone is The loss of Demar Dotson is troublesome for an offensive line that finished 30th in Adjusted Rushing NEP per play last season and will likely be starting two rookies this season.

The centerpieces of the Tampa Bay defense are Gerald McCoy and Lavonte David. McCoy racked up 8.5 sacks in 13 games last season, tied for third among all defensive tackles. David registered 146 tackles, third most among linebackers.

It’s little surprise we projected Tampa Bay to have the second-best rush defense. The secondary, however, is not so solid. Both Alterraun Verner and Sterling Moore were graded as above-average last season according to Pro Football Focus, but the safety corps could end up being an Achilles heel.

The NFC South was won by a sub .500 team last season, so anything could happen. But with just a 9.3 percent chance of winning the division according to our projections, it won’t likely be Tampa Bay earning a playoff spot.