The Philadelphia Eagles' running game was frustratingly mediocre in 2014, ranking 16th in Adjusted Rushing NEP per play. That finish, though, was coupled with a mind-boggling number of injuries on the offensive line and a beat-up LeSean McCoy. They could see that number improve this year with the aforementioned Murray and Ryan Mathews in town.
The big reason I'm targeting this matchup, though, is more to do with their opponent in the Atlanta Falcons. The Falcons had the second worst Adjusted Defensive Rushing NEP per play in 2014, besting only their NFC South compadres in the New Orleans Saints. When you couple that with an over/under of 55 and the Eagles' being favored by 3, you've got yourself a situation that sets up for some potential solid rushing numbers.
One of the main concerns with Murray is his loss of volume, and that's legitimate. He was still fairly efficient last year, though, finishing 10th in Rushing NEP per play among the 42 backs who had at least 100 carries. He was also seventh among those same 42 in Success Rate, which looks at the percentage of plays in which a player increases his team's expected points for a drive. Yes, Murray's market share and number of carries will most likely decrease, but he's still a solid back.
As with most high-priced running backs, I'm much more likely to own Murray in a cash game than a tourney. With this matchup, I'm targeting what figures to be a healthy floor for Murray with okay upside. If you are the type who doesn't mind paying up for backs in a tourney, though, Murray is at least an option with the Vegas team total being as high as it is.
When it comes to Mathews, I'm not inclined to use him in either cash or tourneys this week, but it's certainly not a bad play. I think that the pricing is such that you can find other backs with much higher floors for salaries not that much higher than that of Mathews on FanDuel. That's not to say I don't believe he has value, though. Again, because the over/under is so high, there's always the potential he could bring you a respectable output at minuscule ownership. It's just a lower floor than I believe to be completely necessary.