Team Win Total: 10.5 | ADP: 24th-ranked Running Back
Jonathan Stewart has his warts. Two of them, to be specific, both weighing in excess of 240 pounds and waiting to pilfer goal-line carries and limit his fantasy production. But if the Carolina Panthers hit their projection of 10.5 wins, Stewart's ADP will end up looking a bit silly.
As mentioned, the main reason to dislike Stewart is his getting sniped in the red zone, and a lot of that sentiment likely stems from the early part of 2015. Prior to the team's Week 5 bye, Stewart had only eight red-zone rushes. He surpassed that total in the next two weeks alone and averaged 4.22 red-zone rushes per game the next nine games before going down to injury. He also had 16 rushes inside the 10 those final nine games, easily topping the two he had before the bye. Basically, his role radically shifted after the team's bye week, alleviating one of the big concerns that he carries.
To illustrate the gap in perception versus reality when it comes to Stewart, let's do a blind resume comparison between him and another running back with similar pass-game usage. These guys have radically different ADP's, but they are close in a few departments that may raise some eyebrows. All of the stats in the table are per-game averages from the 2015 season, and the "Win Total" column is their Vegas win total for 2016.
| Running Back | Red-Zone Carries | Targets | Win Total | 2016 ADP |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player A | 3.54 | 1.62 | 10.5 | RB24 |
| Player B | 2.88 | 2.25 | 9.5 | RB3 |
Neither player was hugely involved in the team's passing game -- a big knock on their PPR value -- but Player A has the edge in both red-zone carries per game and 2016 Vegas win total. Yet, for some reason, there is a four-round difference in their ADP's.
Obviously, Player A is Jonathan Stewart. And as you probably guessed, Player B is Adrian Peterson.
If we're willing to select Peterson in the first round -- he's currently eighth overall on Fantasy Football Calculator -- why does Stewart get bludgeoned all the way to the fifth? Clearly, there's a talent gap to help account for some of that discrepancy, but it's possible that we're exaggerating the concerns around Stewart, making him a value for fantasy right now.