Average nERD: -0.80 (43rd)
Average Win Differential: 4.50 (7th)

Chuck Pagano has overcome a lot of adversity off the field already. After he was named head coach of the Indianapolis Colts in 2012, he wasn’t even on the job for more than a few months before being diagnosed with a form of leukemia. He took three months of leave and treatment, and his cancer has been in remission since then. From that point on, he’s led the Colts to four consecutive first- or second-place finishes in the AFC South, as well as three consecutive 11-5 seasons in his first three years and improving playoff records with every appearance. Pagano has all of the hallmarks of a great coaching record in the making, with the seventh-best average win differential among coaches in our study.

But that doesn’t tell the whole story. Even without the 2012 season, which was run by Bruce Arians, Pagano still would have 27 spots between his rank in win differential and nERD. Despite having never had a losing season, Pagano’s 2012 Colts had a nERD of -2.72, and his 2015 team that went 8-8 had a nERD of -5.30. Bad defensive play and lackluster rushing attacks have made the Indianapolis game all about quarterback Andrew Luck, and we saw what happened when he got injured last year. Pagano’s teams have never had a nERD score over 5.00 and won’t unless they figure out a way to balance their team.