ADP: 3rd overall (1.03)

Todd Gurley has the heavenly combination of massive volume and elite per-play efficiency.

Among backs to see at least 100 carries last year, Gurley ranked fifth in Rushing Net Expected Points (NEP) per carry. (You can read more about NEP in our glossary.) If we trim that list to just running backs that got a minimum of 200 carries, Gurley checks in first.

Did I mention it was Gurley's rookie year, he sat out the first two games, and he was playing for an offense that ranked dead last in Adjusted Passing NEP per drop back?

He is the truth.

With rookie Jared Goff under center, the Rams don’t figure to make great strides as a passing offense, so Gurley should be the team’s centerpiece once again. Defenses will, most likely, load up to stop him, but that didn’t faze him much a year ago.

With Le'Veon Bell missing four games, Gurley appears to be the safest option at running back. By virtue of playing on better offenses, Ezekiel Elliott and David Johnson may each have a higher ceiling, but both have very limited sample sizes -- or, in Elliott’s case, none at all -- from which to draw conclusions.