I don't often do this, but take a look up at the URL of this article. Yes, that thing with all the slashes and such. See that number? That means this is article No. 1000 - the one-thousandth piece of (semi-)brilliant work that numberFire has put out since establishing a content section just last summer.
Naturally, I'm happy about this. But not just because it's proof I haven't spent my entire time at work browsing Reddit - it's also a symmetrically beautiful number that means something in the NFL. The quadruple-digit yardage club is the ultimate goal for all starting running backs and wide receivers in the NFL. It means you haven't just been productive; you've been a star.
It takes an extraordinarily blend of efficiency and longevity to reach 1000 yards rushing, as I'm sure DeMarco Murray (who has never done it) could tell you. However, there are some players you may not expect who are likely to hit that milestone. That's why I'm here: to give you a sneak peak behind the preparations being made in the 1000 Club.
These numbers are based off of numberFire's full-season statistical projections for 2013. If you're looking for the full sheet of stats, head over and high risk. Just like MJD, he's got the injury problems of Cooper Manning (you know, the forgotten one). But unlike MJD, McFadden hasn't been consistent when healthy. He's the definition of a wildly variable player.
In 2010, the one season he was actually somewhat fully healthy and made 13 starts, he finished with 1157 yards rushing. Unsurprisingly, he also finished with a 0.02 NEP/rush average that season, gaining the Raiders points above the league average play. But if we look outside of that season for answers, there aren't many to be found.
| Year | Carries | NEP/Rush |
|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 216 | -0.19 |
| 2011 | 113 | 0.06 |
| 2010 | 222 | 0.02 |
| 2009 | 104 | -0.24 |
| 2008 | 103 | -0.03 |
What in the blue blazes am I supposed to do with those stats? I can't really call last season's single-worst-starting-back NEP total a fluke, because he managed the same type of numbers (albeit in less attempts) in 2009. I also can't completely dismiss his efficiency, though, because he was above-average in both 2010 and 2011 as the starter.
However, given JJ's analysis of the Raiders' zone blocking scheme from the other day, we're tending more towards the 2010 and 2011 figures. They seem more sustainable numbers than the extreme outlier produced last season. And given enough carries, McFadden may see 2010 happening all over again.
1. BenJarvus Green-Ellis
Odds He'll Reach 1000 Yards: 64.0%
His current average draft position sits at No. 74. He's being completely discounted as a starting fantasy back before the season even starts. He's facing off in his own backfield against a rookie back while he's a six year veteran and 28 years old (which might as well be Queen Elizabeth's age in terms of running backs).
And with all that said, by our current preseason predictions, the Law Firm has one of the most solid chances of reaching 1000 yards of any running back out there.
Yes, we know all about Giovani Bernard's influence in the backfield; we have Bernard projected to eat up about 84 carries and 30 receptions as a third-down back, after all. As of now, though, all signs point towards Green-Ellis taking the majority of snaps in the Cincinnati backfield, and that could mean great tidings for fantasy owners who take him late.
Last season, BJGE managed only -0.02 NEP per rush, a below average figure among backs. But that small sample size can't be fully trusted considering his strong play from his New England days: he held a 0.03 NEP/rush in 2011 and an extraordinarily high 0.14 NEP/rush on 229 attempts in 2010. If he can come even close to that 2010 form, maybe 250 rushing attempts won't even be fully needed.
As it stands, we have Green-Ellis with 1045.8 rush yards on 245 attempts. And that figure is assuming a drop of about three rushes per game given to Bernard. If Green-Ellis gets off to a hot start, it wouldn't surprise us at all to see him near 1100 or maybe even 1200 yards when all is said and done.