I’m starting to realize I have a bit of a fascination with the NFC South this year. A couple weeks ago I wrote a piece declaring the Panthers and Saints last year’s best “bad†teams, and predicting improvement for this season. In my most recent mock draft, I ended up with players from the division with my first four picks (leading our second tier of tight ends, which also includes NFL.com mock drafts, Olsen is getting drafted as the 7th tight end, on average. He’s going just 10th in ESPN.com mock drafts. And fantasyfootballcalculator.com, which culls data from mocks all across the internet, has him being drafted as the 11th tight end on average, one spot after… Per Matthew Berry and ESPN Stats & Research, Olsen was one of only two tight ends in all of football to put up at least 65 fantasy points in weeks 10-17 last year. The other was Jimmy Graham.
But enough about last season, what about this year? We have Olsen projected for about 74 catches, 860 yards and 5-6 TDs – just a little bit better than his line last year. We don’t have any of the other non-top-tier guys projected for more than 740 yards.
And Olsen has the best odds, by far, to break 800 yards. Check out this handy chart:
| Player | Projected Yards | Chance of Breaking 800 Yards |
|---|---|---|
| Greg Olsen | 862 | 60.24% |
| Jared Cook | 514 | 4.45% |
| Dennis Pitta | 728 | 38.98% |
| Vernon Davis | 695 | 34.54% |
| Kyle Rudolph | 707 | 33.68% |
| Antonio Gates | 584 | 12.08% |
| Jermichael Finley | 621 | 17.45% |
| Owen Daniels | 733 | 36.96% |
How valuable is Olsen?
It would be one thing if Olsen were getting drafted in basically the same position as all those other tight ends. Even though we think he’ll be the best of the bunch, it’s not by a dramatic amount.
But where Olsen provides true value is where he’s getting drafted. Per fantasyfootballcalculator.com, Vernon Davis is getting drafted just about 63rd overall across all mocks. Olsen? He’s going 113th overall, or 4-5 rounds later, depending on the size of your league. That’s crazy. You can draft a better player nearly twice as late in the draft.
It’s not just Davis either. Pitta is getting drafted around 78th overall. Rudolph is going 87th. You could pass on those guys, fill out your roster with three other players, and still get the superior tight end. Value is basically production minus cost, and Olsen gives you the production of other second-tier tight ends with significantly less cost. That’s great value.