Yesterday, Leo wrote about lottery tickets and safe bets. He used Jamaal Charles as his example of a lottery ticket, although he admitted it was an imperfect example. I agree. Jamaal Charles is a clear first-round pick. He’s an investment. A lottery ticket should cost very little, have the potential to pay off big but more likely flame out, and it should cause your friends to make fun of you when you get it.
Per FantasyFootballCalculator.com, his average draft position is the second pick of the 10th round. That’s crazy late! For reference, here are some of the guys taken in the 10th round of last night’s numberFire staff mock draft: Brian Hartline, Bryce Brown, Vincent Brown, Fred Jackson, Jonathan Stewart, Brandon Myers, Ben Roethlisberger and the Seahawks D/ST. (That last one was an autopick casualty, but still.)
Are any of those guys going to win you your league? Extremely doubtful. Could a healthy Vick, in a comeback year, playing in an uptempo offense that utilizes his speed win you your league? Sure! Maybe it’s not likely, but that’s what lottery tickets are for.
Plus, thanks to the influx of talented young passer, there are plenty of solid, if uninspiring fantasy quarterbacks out there on the waiver wire just waiting to be picked up. Guys like Jay Cutler, Carson Palmer, Matt Schaub, Joe Flacco, Josh Freeman, Alex Smith and Philip Rivers are either going in the very last rounds or undrafted entirely. It makes a lot of sense to draft Vick as a backup quarterback, stashing him in case he blows up this season, and just pick up someone else if he totally bombs. Assuming you play in a single-quarterback format, fantasy backup quarterbacks aren't exactly a vital position.
That’s the point of late-round picks: You’re already past the safe haven of sure-thing guys. Now you’re just taking fliers on rookie wideouts and backup running backs. Why not take a flyer on a passer, who, when everything breaks right, can be one of the most dynamic fantasy football players in the NFL?