Entering the NFL as the first overall pick in a draft rightfully comes with high expectations.
Sam Bradford, the top choice in the 2010 NFL draft, has never lived up to those expectations -- be it from injury, coaching, or surrounding talent.
Now though, the pressure is off Bradford after being traded to the Minnesota Vikings right before the start of the year from the Philadelphia Eagles to replace the injured Teddy Bridgewater.
So far, he is playing well, as he has helped the Vikings start the year undefeated.
To see if the Vikings can continue to play well offensively as the year progresses, we should look further into Bradford to see whether or not he is producing at a rate he is capable of maintaining.
Trials, Tribulations, and Triumphs
To date, Bradford has taken 101 drop backs, resulting in 66 completions on 95 attempts for 719 yards and 4 touchdowns. While the numbers are not gaudy, they show good capability from Bradford to lead the offense.
Before digging deeper into just this year, let's look at Bradford through the years to see how this season compares so far -- both by traditional stats and our Jordan Matthews and Stefon Diggs, respectively -- have outclassed his leading receiver from any other season prior.
| Year | Receiver | Tar | Rec | Rec Yd | TD | Rec NEP | Rec NEP/Tar | Rec Success% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2010 | Danny Amendola | 123 | 85 | 689 | 3 | 50.15 | 0.41 | 78.82% |
| 2011+ | Brandon Lloyd | 150 | 70 | 966 | 5 | 85.38 | 0.57 | 90.00% |
| 2012 | Danny Amendola | 101 | 63 | 666 | 3 | 52.33 | 0.52 | 80.95% |
| 2013 | Jared Cook | 85 | 51 | 671 | 5 | 54.90 | 0.65 | 88.24% |
| 2015 | Jordan Matthews | 128 | 85 | 997 | 8 | 84.12 | 0.66 | 78.82% |
| 2016* | Stefon Diggs | 136 | 100 | 1,488 | 4 | 127.42 | 0.94 | 92.00% |
Brandon Lloyd was only with the Rams for 11 games in 2011 but did grade out as a below-average receiver in terms of Reception NEP per target. In fact, all of his top receivers have done just that, aside from Stefon Diggs at his current pace and Jared Cook when compared to other tight ends in the same season.
Among 66 wide receivers with at least 20 targets this year, Diggs ranks 9th in Reception NEP per target and 17th in Reception Success Rate. Seeing Diggs' consistent strong success this year should inspire hope that Bradford can keep his pace going all year long.
Moving Forward
Although the Vikings face the strong pass defenses of the Houston Texans and Philadelphia Eagles these next two weeks, their schedule softens up considerably after that.
All signs point to a positive year for Bradford and the Vikings, and it is time to see this top pick live up to his expectations.