One of the big takeaways from this year's NFL season: dominant teams don't really exist.
Sure, we've got the Cowboys and Patriots, and the Falcons are playing lights out right now, too. But according to our nERD metric -- which measures the number of points we'd expect a team to win by against an average squad on a neutral field -- no teams have truly distanced themselves from the pack.
Our highest-ranked squad, New England, has a nERD of 9.26. In other words, we'd expect them to be victorious against an average team by less than double-digit points. Atlanta is in second with a 7.66 rating, and Dallas is in third with a 6.11 nERD. Prior to this season and since the turn of the century -- 16 seasons worth of data -- we've had 78 teams finish with a nERD of 6.00 or higher. That's nearly five teams per season, when we've only got three this year.
Perhaps that means there'll be some parity in this year's NFL playoff. Or maybe not, because there are some really bad teams fighting for the Super Bowl this year.
Take a look at our algorithm's odds as we enter wild card weekend.
| Team | Super Bowl Odds | Conference Champion Odds | nERD |
|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | 34.95% | 59.07% | 9.26 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 20.06% | 40.51% | 6.11 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 18.71% | 35.52% | 7.66 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 8.18% | 20.26% | 1.93 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 4.75% | 10.53% | 3.32 |
| Green Bay Packers | 4.00% | 9.36% | 3.61 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 3.74% | 9.57% | 1.50 |
| Oakland Raiders | 2.03% | 4.88% | 0.49 |
| Houston Texans | 1.19% | 3.37% | -1.77 |
| New York Giants | 1.11% | 3.05% | 1.32 |
| Miami Dolphins | 0.94% | 2.85% | -2.03 |
| Detroit Lions | 0.34% | 1.03% | -2.53 |