Despite the fact that we see a lot of the same teams in the NFL playoffs each year, there's also a good bit of turnover. And that makes predicting the NFL playoffs each year difficult.
This season was no different, especially when you consider the injuries sustained to big-time players and the breakouts by first-year guys. Combine that with a small-sampled, 16-game schedule, and you're bound for some variance.
If you're curious, here's a quick look at the playoff probabilities our algorithm assigned to each playoff team entering the 2016 season. For reference,
| Team | Preseason Playoff Probability | NFL Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | 71.10% | 1st |
| New England Patriots | 65.40% | 3rd |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 63.50% | 4th |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 59.60% | 6th |
| Green Bay Packers | 57.50% | 7th |
| Houston Texans | 53.40% | 10th |
| New York Giants | 33.80% | 15th |
| Detroit Lions | 31.50% | 17th |
| Oakland Raiders | 25.80% | 23rd |
| Atlanta Falcons | 25.40% | 24th |
| Dallas Cowboys | 22.80% | 25th |
| Miami Dolphins | 18.20% | 28th |
Overall, the teams that our model was high on entering the season that failed to make the playoffs include the Carolina Panthers, Arizona Cardinals, and Denver Broncos.
On the flip side, the algorithm didn't love the Oakland Raiders, Atlanta Falcons, Dallas Cowboys, and Miami Dolphins. Currently, the Falcons and Cowboys rank second and third, respectively, in our power rankings.