With All Hallows’ Eve less than a week away, I can’t think of a single reason we shouldn’t go with a (lame) Halloween theme this week. With that said, I will be changing Buy/Sell/Hold to Treat/Trick/Apple (told you it was lame). Why use apple for hold? Because while I would prefer candy, apples are still better than dental floss.
Panthers 31, Buccaneers 13
How does Greg Schiano have a job? I don’t just mean in Tampa Bay either; I am talking in wider terms. If I ran a business specializing in the bare handed shoveling of horse manure, I would not hire him for even a part-time entry-level horse poop removal position. As long as Schiano is in town, the atmosphere will be so toxic that the best you can hope for is garbage time fun for the Buc’s passing game options.
Not helping matters for the unanimously defeated Pewter Pirates is the mystery surrounding who wasn’t wearing a shirt for some reason) revealed that Frank Gore was actually born in Cuba in 1968. The ageless wonder (Gore, not Rivera) went on to rush for 124 yards and two touchdowns. According to every fantasy owner who doesn’t have Gore on their roster, he is merely a flex play.
Anquan Boldin continues to place as a WR1 after his breakout Week 1 where he posted 26.8 fantasy points. And while he has scored barely more than 40 points since, his 5-catch, 61-yard game in Week 8 is further proof you should be starting him every week regardless of opponent or the fact that he has barely performed as a WR6 the last two months.
Treat: Colin Kaepernick is heating up. As long as he is running the ball, he is a top-10 play. numberFire is much lower on him, but after a second straight great game, I’d expect that to change with this week’s rankings. (I was joking above when I said take a wait-and-see approach. Play him. He is really good, you guys.)
Trick: The game recap you just read. Sure there was some heavy sarcasm meant to make a point (Gore is better than people give him credit for, Boldin should be benched in most leagues, etc.), but aside from that, this game writeup is for entertainment only.
Apple: Maurice Jones-Drew. He looked a bit more spry to me this week than he had earlier in the season. If nothing else, the volume of touches MJD is getting should make him a low end RB2/high end flex.
Bengals 49, Jets 9
Andy Dalton continues to prove he can be a very good, if incredibly streaky, quarterback. Considering the weapons at his disposal, it shouldn’t be surprising when he goes off like he has the last three weeks. What is surprising is how he is posting .12 net expected points per pass attempt this year after averaging .20 per attempt each of the last two seasons. Coming into Week 8, he ranked 12th in total passing NEP among quarterbacks with at least 100 attempts, which is also a career best. I feel like numberFire is a bit behind on their ROS ranking of 23 for Dalton, but I do expect that also to change following this knockout performance. I believe he is a high-end QB2 the rest of the season and matchup permitting, I would be willing to consider playing him over the likes of Tom Brady as early as right now.
Treat: Andy Dalton
Trick: Our ROS ranking of Marvin Jones. He has a touchdown in three consecutive games, seen his targets increase in four straight, is playing ahead of Mohamed Sanu, and has the highest NEP/target in the NFL among wide receivers. With the sparkling NEP metrics, his usage increasing, and a massive four touchdown performance in week 8, Jones should skyrocket up our ranks once they come out on Tuesday.
Bonus Trick: The Jets offense. Nobody on this team is playable (or perhaps ownable) in all but the deepest of leagues.
Apple: Giovani Bernard. If you are a loyal reader you know how much I like Bernard. numberFire has caught up to my love, ranking him in the top-20 ROS. This was an odd game where they had immense success through the air. Ignore his lack of usage and get ready for a nice matchup on Thursday night against the reeling Dolphins.
Raiders 21, Steelers 18
A cesspool of badness in our never-ending series of awful football games, this contest featured approximately 29 combined punts and turnovers. And aside from a 93-yard run from Terrelle Pryor on the first play from scrimmage, had exactly zero noteworthy events.
Darren McFadden had a high volume, low yards per carry day that was bolstered considerably by two touchdown runs. Because I don’t hate my eyeballs, I didn’t watch much of this game, but McFadden is reported to have looked completely recovered from the hamstring pull that sidelined him multiple weeks before the bye (he did return to limited carries in Week 6). Plan on him having a big stretch as he faces the Eagles and Giants the next two weeks, but don’t plan on him not getting hurt again. McFadden is a solid RB2 when healthy.
Treat: Antonio Brown is on pace to catch approximately one million passes. This is not a fluke. He is a borderline WR1 in standard leagues and a legit WR1 in PPR.
Trick: What people have been saying about the Raiders rush defense. It isn’t exactly the 1985 Bears, but they are mid-pack in rush defense metrics and have held nearly every number one running back they have faced to below their season average fantasy points ( Jamaal Charles being the lone exception). I am not suggesting you pick them up, but I would recommend adjusting expectations when your running back faces them.
Apple: Le’Veon Bell will have better games. We see him as a top-15 running back ROS.
Broncos 45, Redskins 21
If you remember me saying Robert Griffin III was back, you must be mistaken. There is no way I said that in this exact column one week ago, after he decimated the Bears defense. Nope. That wasn’t me…
In all seriousness, RG3 took a thumping against Denver. He lacked confidence as a passer, often taking way too long to make a decision, and didn’t run the ball with any effectiveness behind a struggling offensive line. The real RG3 is in there somewhere. It should come out sooner or later.
Julius Thomas left the game in the third quarter with an apparent ankle issue. There was no update during or after the game, so as of press time we are unsure of his status. Fortunately, Denver has a bye upcoming. Keep an eye on his status ahead of week 10.
Treat: The Denver offense is the gift that keeps on giving.
Trick: Alfred Morris reminded us all that he is the number one guy in Washington, as Roy Helu had only six touches for 25 yards. A perfect example of why we shouldn’t overreact to one game, Helu is a standard league handcuff only (and a risky flex play in PPR).
Apple: I don’t know what to do with this information, but Peyton Manning’s passes are showing noticeably less zip than even a couple of weeks ago. Maybe he is having trouble driving with the sprained ankles (yes, both of them) or maybe he is wearing down. I am not saying you should trade him for pennies on the dollar or anything like that, but even if he plays well despite the lack of drive on his passes, Manning’s value likely won’t be any higher than it is right now (it isn’t like his second half will be better than the first).
Cardinals 27, Falcons 13
Atlanta is the biggest disappointment in the NFL both in terms of their record and fantasy results. Roddy White, Julio Jones, Steven Jackson, and Tony Gonzalez have all been more bad than good. Their Week 8 opponent hasn’t been much better, as the Cardinals poor play has buried the value of Larry Fitzgerald.
This isn’t to say there isn’t hope.
For Atlanta, White will hopefully return soon. When he does, that should open up the field a bit for Gonzalez. Harry Douglas will see his stunning results wane some, but the Falcons offense is designed to support two receivers, so don’t expect him to return to oblivion.
Arizona has a cake schedule after their perfectly timed bye (Fitzgerald’s hamstrings could use a break). Just as vital to Fitzgerald’s value, the Cards may have found a run game in the form of rookie Andre Ellington. If he approaches 15 touches a week, he could post RB2 numbers and, more importantly, open things up for Fitzgerald and the passing offense.
Treat: Larry Fitzgerald as an attractive buy-low candidate for all the reasons listed above.
Trick: Steven Jackson looked truly awful. I watched a fair bit of the first half and he was slow, had no explosion, and lacked power. But here is the really bad news: The Falcons face the Panthers and Seahawks after the bye. An aging, likely injured running back behind a brutal offensive line against two of the best defenses in the NFL? No thanks. Jackson should be on your bench.
Apple: Harry Douglas. The Falcons will continue to throw the ball a ton, so based on volume alone, he will have value even if Roddy White returns in Week 10.
Packers 44, Vikings 31
It seems fitting that we would end the week with such a bad game. Let’s just get it over with, shall we?
Treat: The Packers offense. All of it. Buy, buy, buy.
Trick: The Minnesota offense. Save for Adrian Peterson, all of it. Sell, sell, sell.
Apple: Hold onto your hats! You get to see the Vikings in primetime yet again, as they face the Redskins on Thursday night in two short weeks. Oh happy day…