I'm like a decade behind with this, but my wife and I started watching The Wire a couple of months ago. (Please don't spoil anything, we just finished Season 3.) As a result, I now understand Omar comin' references. I understand why everyone sees actor Michael B. Jordan only as "Wallace" and not "Vince," his character's name in Friday Night Lights. I understand why this gif is so awesome.

I now understand the hype. I get why everyone is so in love with the show, because the show is really, really good. Spectacularly good. Top-five good.

Here comes the segue: I don't get the same feeling when talking about incoming rookie running back Alvin Kamara.

Pre-combine, Kamara was getting first-round hype. After an impressive showing in shorts, his stock is rising.

But should teams be so optimistic about his NFL potential?

Strong Measurables

Kamara's 40-yard dash at the combine wasn't anything special, as his 4.56 time combined with his 214-pound frame gave him a Speed Score -- which adjusts 40 times for body size -- that ranks historically in the 55th percentile.

Where Kamara really came through was with his vertical and broad jumps, giving him the highest SPARQ score among this year's running back draft class.

Just to show how respectable Kamara's measurables were, two of his top-five comparables post-combine, per our numbers, were David Wilson (a first-round pick) and LaDainian Tomlinson (a first-round pick and one of the best running backs of all-time).

The combine showed that Kamara is indeed a freak athlete. That doesn't mean everything, though.

Real Usage Concerns

A couple of weeks ago, I analyzed a data set of successful NFL running backs to see Spencer Ware and Peyton Hillis saw a sub-20% rushing attempt market share during their final college season. And Hillis was playing with Darren McFadden and Felix Jones, while Ware played behind Jeremy Hill.

The fact is, running backs who excel at the next level -- no matter how they're excelling -- were at least semi-workhorses in college. I mean, among the 63-back subset, only 9 rushers had below a 30% backfield market share during their final collegiate season. And three of those players played fewer than 10 games during that season thanks to injury.

Even if you strictly go by Kamara's receiving production, it doesn't paint him as a pass-catching god. He caught 16.81% of Tennessee's completed passes this past year and finished with 12.65% of the team's receiving yards. Within this 63-running-back group, his reception market share number ranks sixth-best, and his receiving yardage market share rate is ninth.

Valuing Kamara

To be perfectly honest, Kamara is going to be an exciting player at the NFL level. If teams were drafting him in the third round rather than the rumored first then, sure, why not? His measurables are strong, and he has a lot of upside as a receiving threat out of the backfield.

But a first-round selection? To live up to that sort of expectation, he's going to have to be a legitimate outlier. (Or land in the perfect spot, like New Orleans.) Because NFL backs just don't become great with his type of college production.