NFL draft analysts have been calling this year's running back class "loaded" for a while now, so being the best within the group is no easy task.
Congratulations, Christian McCaffrey, for being that guy.
Or, maybe I should say, congratulations, Christian McCaffrey, for looking like that guy.
Look, determining how well a particular college football player will translate to the pros is somewhat of a crapshoot. We all know this. That's what makes the draft nearly impossible to beat. But that shouldn't stop any of us from analyzing and trying to figure out who the best players are in the draft.
You know, like Christian McCaffrey-type players.
Top-Notch Production Profile
Top NFL running backs are almost always good at the college level.
Mind. Blown.
I dug into this about a month and a half ago, showing that the college production profiles of "successful" NFL running backs is really, really strong. For instance, the number of rushing yards the successful running back cohort rushed for during their final season in college was 1,330.62 yards. The percentage of rushing attempts these backs saw in their respective backfields (attempt market share) was 47.28%. The average number of rushing touchdowns among the group during their final collegiate year was 13.68.
The list goes on and on.
After using these baseline numbers for successful running backs, I was able to find eight rushers from the incoming class that matched the successful running back criteria. Unsurprisingly, Christian McCaffrey made the cut.
| Player | Year | School | Att. MS | Ru. Yds MS | Rec. MS | Rec. Yds MS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leonard Fournette | 2015 | Louisiana State | 59.41% | 63.37% | 12.75% | 11.69% |
| Donnel Pumphrey | 2016 | San Diego State | 54.96% | 57.95% | 17.42% | 11.42% |
| Aaron Jones | 2016 | Texas-El Paso | 56.27% | 79.47% | 14.36% | 10.42% |
| Matt Dayes | 2016 | NC State | 49.40% | 57.44% | 12.17% | 7.89% |
| Dalvin Cook | 2016 | Florida State | 55.60% | 67.11% | 13.52% | 14.21% |
| Jeremy McNichols | 2016 | Boise State | 63.69% | 75.35% | 14.62% | 12.22% |
| Christian McCaffrey | 2016 | Stanford | 48.47% | 59.02% | 20.67% | 15.08% |
| Kareem Hunt | 2016 | Toledo | 51.17% | 58.19% | 14.09% | 9.60% |
That's the first good sign.
Strong Combine Numbers
Probably one of the biggest knocks on McCaffrey is his size, as he weighed in at just 202 pounds at the NFL combine earlier in the month. He ended up running a 4.48 40-yard dash, though, giving him an above-average Speed Score for the class, which adjusts 40 times for weight.
Outside of the 40, McCaffrey crushed his vertical jump (37.5 inches), 3-cone (6.57 seconds), and 20-yard shuttle (4.22 seconds). And that placed him as the fourth-best athlete at running back, according to Zach Whitman's SPARQ rankings.
Our comparables model doesn't give him a ton of strong matches, especially when you filter to only first- or second-round running backs. Neither does MockDraftable.com's. And the reason for that could simply be that he's not really like many backs we see coming into the league, let alone highly-productive and highly-touted ones.
But don't be fooled: the man is athletic.
Receiving Matters
For the most part, McCaffrey wins the measurables and production game. Other backs may have a more attractive overall profile, especially if you're looking for an early-down bruiser. In that case, maybe Leonard Fournette is who you'd rank first, or possibly even D'Onta Foreman.
But a huge piece to all of this is that McCaffrey gives you what matters in today's NFL: receiving.
It's safe to assume that McCaffrey is one of the best (without getting into it, he's the best) pass-catching backs in this class. Among the backs, he was first in reception market share, first in receiving yards market share, and second in yards per game (behind Alvin Kamara, who pass protection needs work as he moves to the league. Dalvin Cook had an awful combine, ranking in the ninth percentile in Whitman's aforementioned SPARQ rankings. And he joins Joe Mixon with off-the-field issues of his own.
McCaffrey doesn't weigh enough.
But considering the league favors pass-catchers more than early-down bruisers, I'm just not sure size is enough reason to think Christian McCaffrey isn't the top running back in this year's class.