They say one man doesn't make a team.
I tend agree with that, but I believe that statement needs at least one qualifier: One man doesn't make a team, but he sure can cover up a lot of mistakes. And the best example of this today has to be the 2013 Green Bay Packers with and without Andrew Garda details some of these looks in his Week 12 Recap.
With ...Tolzien under center, the Packers could expect a lot of stacked boxes, but they ran the ball with Lacy 14 times ... The Giants were not shy about stacking the box ... Lacy saw a six man front just once, and a seven man five times. He saw an eight man front three times, a nine man front four times and even a ten man front. The reason he kept seeing the high-number fronts was because the Packers have a tendency to put a receiver out wide, but then pull him inside at the snap. Of course, a defensive back comes with him—so now instead of a seven man front you get eight defenders or instead of eight you get nine. The Packers never accounted for this and kept running Lacy into the teeth of the defense where there was no room.
The Packers were facing tough defenses, but were hurting themselves as well via their scheme. Opponents were respecting the Packers' running game, forcing an inexperienced at quarterback to beat them. It's fairly obvious that the defenses that can stop the run well are going to create havoc for the Packers sans Rodgers. The silver lining: their remaining opponents are 27th (Cowboys), 24th (Steelers), and 32nd (Bears) against the run. While it wouldn't be easy without Rodgers, this would give the Packers a fighting chance for the division title and a playoff berth.
From Cheddar to Swiss Cheese
One more element for the Packers has to improve for a playoff push without Rodgers: the defense. Let's see where they ranked with Rodgers and where they are now.
Packers Defense Before & After RodgersWeek | Adj Def NEP | Rank | Adj D PNEP | Rank | Adj D RNEP | Rnk |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
8 | 32.07 | 27th | 41.10 | 25th | -8.41 | 14th |
14 | 74.09 | 26th | 70.57 | 25th | 11.70 | 23rd |
The Packers pass defense has been horrible all year, but Rodgers could make up for most of the mistakes in the win column. Defending the running game has been the Achilles's heel, however, over the last few weeks without the star quarterback.
To put these numbers and rankings in perspective, the run defense - after being adjusted for strength of schedule - had given up nearly 8.5 points less than an average team would have in their first eight games. But now, at this point in the season, the Packers have given up almost 12 points more than an average defense, a swing of 20 points in essentially six games.
There have been injuries, sure, but since the Packers offense was struggling in many games without Rodgers, the defense was on the field more than usual. Unlike 2010, the Packers have not been able to handle their injuries well. If this team had been healthy, we are looking at a legitimate Super Bowl contender; ravaged with injuries, the Packers just become "another team" fighting for their playoff hopes.
Can the Packers Make the Playoffs?
The Packers' playoffs hopes are tied to three things:
Rodgers ReturningThe feeling before the Falcons game seemed to be he could return against the Cowboys this week. Now, many are afraid the recovery is coming along too slowly and he may not return the rest of the season. There are concerns for his shoulder, but recent participation in practices have indicated he might be close to playing; only time will tell.
Winning the DivisionIt's really the best and only shot for the Packers with three weeks left in the season. There are a few different scenarios that could take place to help them in the wild card race, but given the 11.1% chance the numberFire metrics give the Packers, the division title is the easiest route to the playoffs.
Hoping the Lions LoseTo win the division title, they must win out and hope the Lions stumble at least one more time. If the Lions lose once more, the NFC North is there for the taking.