We've all been there.
It's Sunday morning, and you're staring blankly at your quarterback options. You look at useful information such as their health, the weather conditions, the location, their projected point totals, the spread, and you still can't make a decision.
While I don't have the magic answer on who to start, it's probably a good idea to look at a quarterback's chances of winning his game.
Sweet Victory
I figured that winning led to more fantasy points on average, so I created a list of the 32 projected starting quarterbacks for this upcoming season. I then took their career averages in wins and losses via the Rotoviz Game Splits App and came up with the following findings.
The blue bars represent the average fantasy points per game scored by each quarterback in wins over their careers. The orange bars represent their fantasy output in losses. Next, we'll look at the raw data that was produced.
| Quarterback | Wins | Losses |
|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | 27.15 | 21.64 |
| Alex Smith | 18.39 | 13.27 |
| Andrew Luck | 25.4 | 22.74 |
| Andy Dalton | 22.03 | 16.96 |
| Ben Roethlisberger | 20.8 | 18.62 |
| Blake Bortles | 20.93 | 20.35 |
| Brian Hoyer | 12.86 | 13.32 |
| Cam Newton | 26.77 | 21.33 |
| Carson Palmer | 20.53 | 17.91 |
| Carson Wentz | 17.64 | 16.07 |
| Cody Kessler | n/a | 12.03 |
| Dak Prescott | 25.33 | 8.22 |
| Derek Carr | 24.17 | 16.01 |
| Drew Brees | 25.9 | 19.34 |
| Eli Manning | 19.78 | 16.42 |
| Jameis Winston | 21.48 | 20.49 |
| Jared Goff | n/a | 10.44 |
| Joe Flacco | 18.94 | 16.19 |
| Josh McCown | 18.66 | 12.32 |
| Kirk Cousins | 25.1 | 17.16 |
| Marcus Mariota | 28.03 | 17.28 |
| Matt Ryan | 22.12 | 19.3 |
| Matthew Stafford | 26.18 | 18.41 |
| Mike Glennon | 17.39 | 16.47 |
| Philip Rivers | 21.09 | 18.91 |
| Russell Wilson | 24.12 | 18.92 |
| Ryan Tannehill | 21.5 | 16.68 |
| Sam Bradford | 18.62 | 16.49 |
| Tom Brady | 24.07 | 15.71 |
| Tom Savage | n/a | n/a |
| Trevor Siemian | 16.24 | 16.53 |
| Tyrod Taylor | 19.56 | 23.53 |
The 32 projected starters averaged 21.71 fantasy points per game in wins, and just 17.07 in losses, a difference of 4.64 points per game.
Some quarterbacks on this list -- Blake Bortles, Brian Hoyer, and Jameis Winston, among them -- have not had their fantasy performances affected by wins or losses, while others have seen their scoring change dramatically.
Tyrod Taylor
Tyrod Taylor stands out because he has performed better in losses.
Taylor has averaged 11 more pass attempts and 73 more passing yards per game in losses. He can do plenty of damage with his legs -- he topped 40 rushing yards and found the end zone on the ground in 6 of his 15 starts -- but when forced to pass in a losing effort, he's been deadly.
In fact, among these 32 starters, Taylor has averaged the most points per game in losses. The online sportsbook Pinnacle is projecting the Buffalo Bills to win 6.5 games this season after they won 7 in 2016. That's good news for TyGod, who is going later than he should be.
Marcus Mariota
Contrary to Taylor, Marcus Mariota has been a fantasy football juggernaut in his team's victories.
Mariota has averaged 10.75 more fantasy points per game in wins than in losses, the biggest discrepancy among the 32 starters. Mariota has also averaged more fantasy points per game in wins than any quarterback on our list, albeit, with an 11-game sample size. Per Pinnacle, the Titans are projected to win 8.5 games this season after winning 9 in 2016.
Matthew Stafford
Like Mariota, Matthew Stafford has been dominant in wins.
While his pass attempts have seen an uptick in losses, his efficiency fell off a cliff. Stafford has been usable over his career for fantasy purposes, but has been a top-five option in wins. Unfortunately for Stafford, the Detroit Lions are projected to win 8 games after winning 9 in 2016.
The Takeaway
You should never base your fantasy football decisions off of just one variable. If you're stuck in a coin-flip situation when looking over your options before kickoff, the numbers suggest going with the quarterback whose team is more likely to win that week according to the Vegas odds.