Nobody likes to admit it -- at least I don't -- but luck is a big part of fantasy football.
You can get lucky or unlucky with your draft slot. You can get unlucky if your players get hurt. A fingertip deflection or two can alter your entire fantasy football season. You need a number of things to go right every week, and being prepared for everything is a good start.
One overlooked area of your fantasy season is the draft. Not the strategy and preparation itself of course. I'm talking about knowing your league lobby. Maybe you're primarily an ESPN player and you know the intricacies of their lobby well by now. Maybe your friend's buddy needs another guy in his Yahoo league, and you agree because there's no such thing as too many leagues, even though you barely know Mark.
Well, you can get a rude awakening if you haven't studied the Yahoo lobby (or whichever new site you're joining). I'm here to help you defeat Mark and his pals.
I'll start by setting up our fully customizable cheat sheet (and the draft kit app so I can have even more spreadsheets open during the draft) to Yahoo's default settings and see which players and positions are overvalued and undervalued.
Let's dive in.
Fundamental Principles
1. Yahoo's default leagues require three wide receivers. It's a one-quarterback, three-receiver, two-running back, one-tight end setup. It's also non-PPR.
2. Quarterbacks are generally undervalued on Yahoo's list. Compared to our rankings, quarterbacks can be had later than they should be.
3. It's a balanced app. Like it was last year, the app is pretty much in line with ours in terms of the number of receivers and running backs inside the top 25, top 50, and top 100.
4. But we disagree on individual players. That's the real key, and that's where we'll try to scrounge up the most value.
5. You have just six bench spots. That means you have a 15-man roster rather than 16 on ESPN. That means you can't stash players as easily, but it also means the waiver wire will be a little more forgiving, provided your commissioner doesn't change the bench size.
Overvalued Yahoo Players According to Our Projections
So, I wasn't really being coy when I said that we disagree on individual players. There are 24 players inside Yahoo's top 100 alone that we think are listed at least 16 spots too soon, once you factor in position scarcity, roster settings, and scoring settings.
Player | Position | Yahoo Draft App | numberFire Rank | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|
Tyrell Williams | WR | 80 | 141 | -61 |
LeGarrette Blount | RB | 59 | 113 | -54 |
Adrian Peterson | RB | 68 | 115 | -47 |
Samaje Perine | RB | 83 | 129 | -46 |
Jimmy Graham | TE | 58 | 102 | -44 |
Derrick Henry | RB | 93 | 137 | -44 |
Mike Gillislee | RB | 32 | 73 | -41 |
Travis Kelce | TE | 33 | 66 | -33 |
Martavis Bryant | WR | 48 | 80 | -32 |
Jameis Winston | QB | 71 | 97 | -26 |
Doug Martin | RB | 87 | 110 | -23 |
Joe Mixon | RB | 28 | 50 | -22 |
Marcus Mariota | QB | 63 | 85 | -22 |
Tyreek Hill | WR | 42 | 63 | -21 |
Jordan Reed | TE | 50 | 70 | -20 |
Leonard Fournette | RB | 17 | 35 | -18 |
Marshawn Lynch | RB | 34 | 52 | -18 |
Davante Adams | WR | 44 | 62 | -18 |
Delanie Walker | TE | 78 | 96 | -18 |
Eddie Lacy | RB | 51 | 68 | -17 |
Dalvin Cook | RB | 57 | 74 | -17 |
Demaryius Thomas | WR | 29 | 45 | -16 |
Martellus Bennett | TE | 92 | 108 | -16 |
I probably love Tyrell Williams more than the next guy, but listing him 80th is pretty bold, even with the injury to Mike Williams. The Los Angeles Chargers have a bunch of pass catchers to contend with, and he's our biggest "overvalued" player inside Yahoo's top 100.
I can understand being bullish on Adrian Peterson and Samaje Perine, but LeGarrette Blount at 59th is hard to understand in a format where you can get away with (i.e. can only play) just two running backs each week.
Mike Gillislee at 32 is pretty spicy, as he's ahead of Travis Kelce, both of whom our algorithms value at least 40 slots lower than they're found in the Yahoo app.
Five tight ends make this list, and it's not just because we think the position is totally overvalued. Yahoo does have 10 tight ends in their top 100 and we have just 6, but there are plenty of undervalued tight ends, according to our projections.
Undervalued Yahoo Players According to Our Projections
By comparison, these players are undervalued by at least a full round (12 picks) and are still inside Yahoo's top 100.
Player | Position | Yahoo Draft App | numberFire Rank | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|
Matt Ryan | QB | 67 | 23 | 44 |
Stefon Diggs | WR | 100 | 64 | 36 |
Golden Tate | WR | 74 | 40 | 34 |
Cam Newton | QB | 77 | 49 | 28 |
Eric Decker | WR | 91 | 65 | 26 |
Kirk Cousins | QB | 85 | 61 | 24 |
Jarvis Landry | WR | 60 | 37 | 23 |
Russell Wilson | QB | 65 | 42 | 23 |
Kelvin Benjamin | WR | 82 | 59 | 23 |
Jeremy Maclin | WR | 99 | 77 | 22 |
Larry Fitzgerald | WR | 64 | 43 | 21 |
Drew Brees | QB | 41 | 22 | 19 |
Tyler Eifert | TE | 86 | 67 | 19 |
Aaron Rodgers | QB | 30 | 12 | 18 |
Spencer Ware | RB | 49 | 31 | 18 |
Ameer Abdullah | RB | 66 | 48 | 18 |
Frank Gore | RB | 72 | 55 | 17 |
Tom Brady | QB | 35 | 21 | 14 |
Michael Crabtree | WR | 45 | 32 | 13 |
That's a lengthy list for sure. Seven big-name passers are undervalued by at least a round, per our algorithms, and even if you don't want to spend an early pick on them, you can probably get them later than you should be able to if your league drafts in line with the app.
Stefon Diggs at 100th in the app is a bit puzzling. He's 64th in our ranks for this type of default league, and here are numerous reasons to love him in 2017.
Some veteran wideouts make the list, too, most notably guys who tend to have more value in PPR leagues (Golden Tate and Jarvis Landry, for example).
Speaking of receivers, pretty much every player inside our top 100 whom we rank at least 20 spots ahead of their Yahoo rank is a wideout.
Player | Position | Yahoo Draft App | numberFire Rank | Difference |
---|---|---|---|---|
Robby Anderson | WR | 190 | 100 | 90 |
Matt Ryan | QB | 67 | 23 | 44 |
Rishard Matthews | WR | 124 | 82 | 42 |
Rob Kelley | RB | 129 | 90 | 39 |
Stefon Diggs | WR | 100 | 64 | 36 |
Randall Cobb | WR | 107 | 72 | 35 |
Golden Tate | WR | 74 | 40 | 34 |
Jordan Matthews | WR | 117 | 83 | 34 |
Kenny Britt | WR | 105 | 75 | 30 |
Cam Newton | QB | 77 | 49 | 28 |
Eric Decker | WR | 91 | 65 | 26 |
Kirk Cousins | QB | 85 | 61 | 24 |
Jarvis Landry | WR | 60 | 37 | 23 |
Russell Wilson | QB | 65 | 42 | 23 |
Kelvin Benjamin | WR | 82 | 59 | 23 |
Jeremy Maclin | WR | 99 | 77 | 22 |
Corey Davis | WR | 120 | 98 | 22 |
Larry Fitzgerald | WR | 64 | 43 | 21 |
Mike Wallace | WR | 116 | 95 | 21 |
Sure, a lot of names were on the last list, too, but there really are big difference between our individual ranks and Yahoo's, despite being mostly on the same page with how to value certain positions in your draft.
Hidden Gems
Kareem Hunt is the big one at 2,454 in the Yahoo lobby (not a typo). He has an outside chance to push Spencer Ware for the top running back duties for the Kansas City Chiefs and is getting run with the first-team.
Chris Thompson, the third-down back for Washington, is 296th, so not quite so hidden as Hunt is.
The same can be said for Shane Vereen, who is listed 303rd on Yahoo. He's our 253rd-ranked player in this format and is healthy after a torn triceps last year. He really only needs to steal receiving work from Paul Perkins to pay off that tag and could wind up a lead back if Perkins can't take over that role successfully.
Other backups listed way down the list include Darren McFadden (1,934) and Alfred Morris (2,372), in case you're worried about the Ezekiel Elliott suspension scare.
Detroit Lions rookie standout Kenny Golladay is our 143rd-ranked player in this format but is pretty hidden in Yahoo's lobby, and Braxton Miller and Jaelen Strong, who could have an early-season role while Will Fuller misses time early in the year.
Josh Gordon is listed 269th.
Low-end tight ends Jermaine Gresham (1,907) and Benjamin Watson (1,903) are listed as afterthoughts, and Austin Seferian-Jenkins is 256th.