Fantasy owners were excited. Seattle fans were excited. And I’m sure which you can see here, was a spectacular one that didn’t come very close to the line of scrimmage, unlike most of his catches in Minnesota.
In the Divisional Round against the Saints, Harvin was targeted twice on the first three plays of the game, and ended up catching three passes for 21 yards. While this is easily the least enjoyable stat line to ever write about, it did appear that Seattle was using Harvin like the Vikings did when he was in Minnesota: short passes to pick up yards after the catch, and even in the backfield as Harvin received a handoff.
Like I said above though, Harvin can make an impact even when he doesn’t touch the ball; he can open things up for the rest of the offense. Is it a coincidence that Seattle posted just seven points after Harvin left the game against the Saints? Is it a coincidence that the team came away with at least a field goal on three of the four drive Harvin was part of? When you consider how Seattle’s offense has been playing of late, I think you find the answer to that.
Seattle’s Offensive Woes
Not a whole lot of people want to say it, but Seattle’s offense hasn’t been playing effectively down the stretch. Mind you, after their regular season win against New Orleans – a time of year when the team was at an all-time high in terms of league-wide perception – Seattle faced a tough slate of defenses. However, Russell Wilson still ended the final four games of the regular season with a Net Expected Points total that was below expectation, and the team has averaged just over 20 points per game over their last six.
In an offensive-driven NFL against a historically good offense in the Super Bowl, that’s probably not going to cut it.
This doesn’t mean Seattle’s offense isn’t capable – they still finished the regular season with the fifth-best passing offense according to our schedule-adjusted Net Expected Points data, and a rushing offense that ranked 11th. They just haven’t put it together recently.
Harvin should be able to help. Even if we look at his rookie season (his least productive (albeit still productive) of his career), his advanced numbers would still be best among Seattle's group of pass-catchers.
| Receptions | Reception NEP | Target NEP | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Golden Tate | 64 | 75.21 | 39.57 |
| Doug Baldwin | 50 | 69.53 | 42.87 |
| Zach Miller | 33 | 40.86 | 21.44 |
| Jermaine Kearse | 22 | 35.48 | 20.56 |
| Sidney Rice | 15 | 18.86 | 3.11 |
| Luke Willson | 20 | 18.07 | 12.47 |
| Rookie Percy Harvin | 60 | 81.46 | 50.43 |
Keep in mind that Target NEP looks at the number of Net Expected Points a player adds on all targets, and Reception NEP is the number of points added on all receptions. Even though Harvin was consistently seeing shorter targets during his rookie campaign than Seahawk pass-catchers this year, he still did more with each catch, once again showing his yards after catch ability.
Adding him to the offense won’t be a detriment, that’s for sure.
Use Him Wisely
Though the concussion against the Saints may be looked at as just bad luck, using Harvin in a smarter way would be, well, smarter for the Seahawks against the Broncos on Sunday.
They don’t need to feed him as much as they need to just use him. We saw in his small sample against New Orleans what his presence on the field can do, even if he catches just a few passes.
Will he be the Super Bowl MVP? That’s doubtful. But what he can do is help Russell Wilson be that MVP, opening up coverage for players like Golden Tate and Doug Baldwin. He can also be a security blanket for a quarterback, Wilson, who was under pressure as much as any other passer in the league this year.