Since the turn of the century, we’ve seen two game-winning field goals from Adam Vinatieri’s foot, three defensive touchdowns from Monte Kiffin’s defense and a touchdown toss from a wide receiver.
We’ve watched David Tyree defy physics, James Harrison sprint to exhaustion, an onside kick to start the second half, an undefeated team’s defeat and a power outage. A full-blown, pitch-black power outage.
Football fans have been fortunate over the last 10 to 15 years to see some of the craziest, wackiest things the game can offer in the biggest game imaginable. Perhaps this has to do with the NFL’s natural parity – a single-elimination playoff tournament, like we see with college basketball, that often brings underdog stories.
Or maybe this is just the game. This is why millions of people tune in each week. This is why, aside from the commercials, your mom, wife and best buddy will be watching football with you on Sunday.
They want to experience the drama.
There’s no doubt that we’ll see a vintage NFL matchup on Sunday. We’ve got the two best teams from each conference - something we don’t usually see (but something our metrics accurately predicted) - facing off in the first outdoor Super Bowl in a cold environment. In typical NFL fashion, the quarterback from one of the teams is arguably the best we’ve ever seen, but improperly known for his inability to play in the cold.
Oh, and did I mention that he’ll be facing off against a unit that’s been able to stop opposition passing games in a pass-first NFL era? Or the fact that the other quarterback is just a sophomore in the league, and was passed up by every single team at least twice during his NFL Draft?
And then there’s the outspoken All-Pro cornerback, who created more headlines after a post-game trash talking session than anyone else this year, Justin Bieber aside.
Yes, there will be drama in this weekend’s Super Bowl.
But while the storylines are great for football fans, the game itself is what we really care about. And fortunately, we’ve got the numbers and analysis to get you ready for the big game.
How can the Broncos win? What should they do? Does stop talking isn’t a difficult thing to do. But getting him to stop running? That’s a different story.
At numberFire, we use a nifty metric called Net Expected Points (NEP) to show us how well a player performs. Instead of looking at traditional yardage and touchdown statistics – which don’t always tell the entire story – we look at the down and distance situations on each play, and see how a player affects said play in terms of expected points. You can read more about Net Expected Points in our strongest predictors via our Premium service, you’ll find that Denver’s raw numbers at quarterback, when analyzed via historical games, are more efficient and opportunistic based.
Peyton Manning won’t be throwing the ball all over the field, and unless Seattle jumps to an early lead, we shouldn’t expect the high volume of throws we're used to seeing from him. He will, however, be throwing the ball efficiently on the field, making big third-down plays and converting red zone trips into touchdowns.
Don’t be surprised to see a more balanced Denver attack.
Pound It With Knowshon
In order to have balance, the Broncos have to run the ball. And what better way to do that than with one of the best NFL running backs from the 2013 season, Vegas odds, using our algorithms to predict the best gamble.
But most importantly, we used all of our countless lines of code to determine who will win Super Bowl XLVIII. Curious as to who the algorithms picked? Click here to find out.