The 2013 Buffalo Bills were truly a team in transition. They opened the season with a rookie quarterback, the worst value on the entire roster for the Bills this year.
His yards per reception, total yards, and touchdown numbers all decreased in 2013. A percentage of this can be attributed to the fact he missed four games, but only a small percentage.
| Player | Rec. NEP | Rank | Rec. NEP/Target | Rank | Catch Rate | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stevie Johnson | 42.57 | 65th | 0.42 | 107th | 51.49% | 92nd |
The table above takes a look at Johnson's year from an advanced metrics standpoint. His total Reception NEP score tells us that he accumulated about 42.57 points for his team over the course of the season on receptions, which was only good for a paltry 65th out of all receivers with more than 25 receptions on the year (118). And in terms of Target Net Expected Points, which looks at how many points a receiver added for his team on every target, Johnson ranked in the bottom five among all NFL wide receivers in 2013.
But again, he didn't play 16 games, so perhaps his cumulative numbers look worse as a result of that. Nope. He finished with the 92nd-best catch rate and 107th-best Reception NEP per target in the entire league last year, something that's unheard of for a player as high-profile as Johnson.
What Should They Do?
It's obvious that the team needs to do a few things this offseason to transition from rebuilding to contending. The top priority would be resigning stud safety Jairus Byrd. A significant hit would be taken by their cap space, but they have a ton of room going into the off season ($28 million projected). Even if the Bills fail to actually resign Byrd to a new contract, Buffalo will likely just slap the franchise tag on him for a reasonable $8.3 million.
With Seattle recently dominating the Superbowl with a suffocating defense, the interest in Byrd and other impact safeties might be more inflated than it would have been otherwise, as teams try to mimic the Seahawks in the most copycat league in all of sports.
The most important thing the Bills should do this offseason though is begin to develop some consistency and a strong rapport between the new coaching staff and players. On the defensive side alone, the 2014 unit will be led by the fourth different defensive coordinator in as many years. That's not a good thing when you consider the significant jump they made from last year to this one under now Cleveland Browns head coach Mike Pettine.
As the Bills look to the future, there are some bright spots on the roster. But it's hard to argue that they are any closer to contending than they were a year ago.