It's no secret that Vegas totals and spreads can be helpful when making fantasy football decisions -- especially in daily fantasy games.
Unfortunately, as professional NFL handicapper Warren Sharp has pointed out, Vegas' primary goal is not to set the most accurate lines -- Vegas' goal is to make money, and they do that by encouraging public action on a particular side. What does that mean?
Let’s say Vegas opens the line on a game with Team X favored to beat Team Y by 7 points. If 80% of the public money coming in is in favor of Team X against the spread but Vegas still does not adjust the line, that demonstrates that either there is sharp money on Team Y or that Vegas feels confident about Team Y against the spread. Either way, by examining how Vegas is moving lines in comparison to where the public is betting, we can potentially gain an edge when making lineup decisions.
Note: Current line information is contained on our DFS Heat Map page, and other betting numbers are pulled from SportsInsights.
Minnesota Vikings (-1.5) at Washington Redskins (O/U 42.5)
Betting Trends: After their bye week, the Minnesota Vikings take on the Washington Redskins. The public is essentially split on this game, with 54% of spread tickets coming in on Washington. Despite the fact that the public is taking a clear stand on either side, the line has moved 1.0 points in favor of the Redskins since it opened with the Vikings favored by 2.5. It appears that sharp action is on Washington in this matchup.
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