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We finally have a new team atop our power rankings.
The Jaguars occupied the top spot since Week 6, but their nERD score -- which measures how many points we would expect a team to win by against a league-average opponent on a neutral field -- had declined for three straight weeks heading into their Week 12 game, a 27-24 loss to Arizona.
Philadelphia, fresh off its fourth consecutive win of at least three touchdowns, took the Jags' place and owns a nERD score of 12.33. The 10-1 Eagles are the fifth different team to occupy the top spot in our rankings -- New England was first in the initial three iterations of the ratings (including the preseason version) before Denver swooped in after Week 3 (I know the season seems to be flying by, but that seems like a long time ago).
Kansas City took over a week later and held on for another week before ceding the spot to Jacksonville.
We'll have more on the Eagles later, but here's how the other 31 teams break down.
Teams Ranked 32nd to 23rd
Things are looking really dire for the Cowboys, who lost for the third straight week and now have less than a 2% chance of making the playoffs, per our algorithm.
| Rank | Team | nERD | Rec | Proj | Playoff Odds | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 32 | Indianapolis Colts | -12.67 | 3-8 | 4.5-11.5 | 0.1% | 26 | 32 | 0 |
| 31 | San Francisco 49ers | -11.94 | 1-10 | 2.4-13.6 | 0.0% | 30 | 29 | 0 |
| 30 | Miami Dolphins | -10.19 | 4-7 | 5.5-10.5 | 0.9% | 32 | 23 | 0 |
| 29 | Cleveland Browns | -8.05 | 0-11 | 1.2-14.8 | 0.0% | 27 | 26 | -1 |
| 28 | Oakland Raiders | -5.62 | 5-6 | 6.8-9.2 | 6.1% | 12 | 31 | +1 |
| 27 | Dallas Cowboys | -5.46 | 5-6 | 6.9-9.1 | 1.6% | 15 | 30 | -7 |
| 26 | New York Giants | -4.89 | 2-9 | 4.1-11.9 | 0.0% | 23 | 18 | -3 |
| 25 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | -4.47 | 4-7 | 5.8-10.2 | 0.1% | 17 | 27 | -4 |
| 24 | New York Jets | -4.44 | 4-7 | 5.5-10.5 | 0.4% | 22 | 19 | +1 |
| 23 | Buffalo Bills | -4.33 | 6-5 | 8.4-7.6 | 35.8% | 25 | 16 | +4 |
All three of Dallas' losses came to solid teams (Atlanta, Philadelphia and the Chargers on Thanksgiving), but none of the games were all that competitive. The closest game of the bunch was their 20-point loss to the Falcons.
The skid has coincided with the unavailability of both running back Ezekiel Elliott and linebacker Sean Lee (and Tyron Smith for two games), but as important as these players are, Dallas’ problems seem to run deeper. It is not as if the Cowboys were a great team that was suddenly derailed by these absences.
Heading into their game at the Falcons in Week 10 (without Zeke and Smith and the contest Lee was injured in), Dallas was 17th in our power ratings. The team was humming along on offense, ranking fourth by our opponent-adjusted metrics, but Dallas sat 28th on defense.
The defense has continued to struggle, and the Cowboys' offense has also fallen off a cliff.
Since Week 10, the Cowboys rank last in Offensive Net Expected Points (NEP) per play, but this has less to do with the running game than passing game. Over this span, Dallas is 9th in Rushing NEP per carry and 10th in yards per carry (4.4). Their Rushing Success Rate (the percentage of plays that yield positive NEP) is a strong 43.4% (the league average on rushes this season is about 38%).
It is a dropoff from the first nine weeks, during which Dallas was first in both Rushing NEP per carry and yards per rush (4.8), but it has hardly been problematic in its own right.
The bigger issues have come through the air, where Dak Prescott is mired in the worst slump of his young career. We can see that by looking at his splits since the start of Week 10, and we'll peep stats like yards per completion (Y/C), net yards per attempt (NY/A) and quarterback rating (Rate) in addition to our in-house metrics.
| Prescott | Y/C | NY/A | TD | INT | Rate | Sack Rate | NEP/Drop Back | Success Rate |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weeks 1-9 | 11.2 | 6.8 | 16 | 4 | 97.9 | 3.7% | 0.15 | 46.5% |
| Weeks 10-12 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 0 | 5 | 57.0 | 13.7% | -0.45 | 39.2% |
This is hardly all Prescott’s fault, of course. When Smith missed the Falcons and Eagles games, his backup, Chaz Green, was torched -- with Atlanta's Adrian Clayborn notching six sacks in a dominant outing. Eight of the 14 sacks the Cowboys have conceded over this span came against Atlanta.
While there are numerous reasons why, Dallas has struggled to move the ball through the air, and that is the main cause of the team’s recent slide.
Teams Ranked 22nd to 13th
While calls for Alex Smith’s benching have grown louder over the past few weeks, he is far from the only culprit behind the Chiefs’ recent skid.
| Rank | Team | nERD | Rec | Proj | Playoff Odds | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22 | Tennessee Titans | -4.31 | 7-4 | 9.3-6.7 | 68.6% | 20 | 25 | 0 |
| 21 | Cincinnati Bengals | -4.26 | 5-6 | 6.8-9.2 | 3.4% | 21 | 21 | +3 |
| 20 | Arizona Cardinals | -4.04 | 5-6 | 7.0-9.0 | 1.1% | 24 | 14 | +6 |
| 19 | Chicago Bears | -2.52 | 3-8 | 5.5-10.5 | 0.0% | 29 | 6 | -1 |
| 18 | Denver Broncos | -2.38 | 3-8 | 5.7-10.3 | 0.2% | 31 | 4 | +1 |
| 17 | Detroit Lions | -0.11 | 6-5 | 8.6-7.4 | 21.3% | 18 | 15 | -3 |
| 16 | Green Bay Packers | 0.56 | 5-6 | 7.5-8.5 | 5.4% | 10 | 22 | +1 |
| 15 | Kansas City Chiefs | 0.65 | 6-5 | 9.0-7.0 | 70.4% | 8 | 24 | -3 |
| 14 | Houston Texans | 1.12 | 4-7 | 6.8-9.2 | 5.3% | 13 | 17 | +1 |
| 13 | Atlanta Falcons | 1.48 | 7-4 | 9.1-6.9 | 45.3% | 9 | 20 | +3 |
Kansas City, which has lost five of its last six games, still ranks eighth in Offensive NEP but has fallen to 24th on defense. Smith certainly has cooled off after an MVP-caliber start, but he is still completing 63.0% of his passes and averaging 6.7 yards per drop back. The advanced stats do paint a bleaker picture as Smith is averaging 0.02 Passing NEP per drop back with just a 42.1% Success Rate since Week 6 (the league averages this year are 0.07 and 45.00%).
Still, the team’s dropoffs elsewhere have been more dramatic, including the running game, which was averaging 0.13 Rushing NEP per carry with a 46.7% Success Rate in KC's first five games. Since, these figures stand at -0.11 and 33.3%, respectively.
The defense was not really playing well during the winning streak and has gotten worse since, allowing 0.09 Defensive NEP per play in its first five games and 0.11 afterwards.
These are not problems that only Pat Mahomes can fix.
Teams Ranked 12th to 1st
And then there are the Eagles, who clearly deserve to sit atop our ratings.
| Rank | Team | nERD | Rec | Proj | Playoff Odds | Off. NEP Rank | Def. NEP Rank | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12 | Seattle Seahawks | 1.7 | 7-4 | 9.6-6.4 | 54.0% | 16 | 12 | +1 |
| 11 | Washington Redskins | 2.95 | 5-6 | 7.9-8.1 | 6.7% | 14 | 11 | 0 |
| 10 | Baltimore Ravens | 3.27 | 6-5 | 9.1-6.9 | 70.4% | 28 | 2 | 0 |
| 9 | Carolina Panthers | 3.87 | 8-3 | 10.6-5.4 | 78.5% | 19 | 5 | 0 |
| 8 | New England Patriots | 5.43 | 9-2 | 12.7-3.3 | 99.9% | 1 | 28 | 0 |
| 7 | Los Angeles Chargers | 7.03 | 5-6 | 8.5-7.5 | 46.1% | 7 | 10 | 0 |
| 6 | Los Angeles Rams | 8.01 | 8-3 | 11.1-4.9 | 91.1% | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| 5 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 8.05 | 9-2 | 12.3-3.7 | 99.9% | 6 | 8 | -1 |
| 4 | Minnesota Vikings | 8.49 | 9-2 | 12.4-3.6 | 99.6% | 4 | 7 | +1 |
| 3 | New Orleans Saints | 9.72 | 8-3 | 11.4-4.6 | 95.1% | 2 | 13 | 0 |
| 2 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 12.22 | 7-4 | 10.1-5.9 | 92.5% | 11 | 1 | -1 |
| 1 | Philadelphia Eagles | 12.33 | 10-1 | 13.6-2.4 | 100.0% | 3 | 3 | +1 |
Philadelphia’s average scoring margin is +14.5, and the 5.0-point gap between the Eagles and Patriots (who are second in point differential) is equivalent to the gap between New England and the Chargers, who are ninth.
Our model always liked the Eagles and had them ninth before the season, paying little mind to their 7-9 record in 2016, which was lower than we would expect considering their +36 point differential. It knew Philadelphia would again have a strong defense, projecting it to be fourth in Adjusted Defensive NEP.
What are projections did not anticipate were the strides second-year quarterback Carson Wentz would make, as we had Philly pegged to finish 19th in overall Offensive NEP and 23rd through the air.
In reality, Philadelphia has been excellent on both sides of the ball, ranking third in both offense and defense, according to our numbers, and they are the only team in the top five in both categories. The Eagles' passing game ranks seventh in both Passing NEP per drop back, and it is complimented by a running game that is seventh in Rushing NEP per carry.
The Eagles have also been remarkably consistent, ranking in the top 10 in each iteration of the power rankings this season, something no other team in the league can say.
We give Philly a 22.9% chance to win the franchise’s first Super Bowl this season, higher title odds than every other team in the league.