As you know, we like math here at numberFire. Our algorithms help tell a better story about sports -- they're able to dig through the nonsense, helping us look at things that matter on the court, field or rink.
With football, we love our Net Expected Points (NEP) metric, which measures the number of points a player adds (or loses) to his team versus what he's expected to add. Rather than counting statistics like yards, touchdowns and receptions, NEP looks at down-and-distance situations and field position and relates these instances to history. When a player outperforms what's happened in the past, he sees a positive expected points value on the play. When he doesn't, his expected points gained on the play is negative. All of these little instances add up, then, to be a player's Net Expected Points total.
You can read more about NEP in our glossary.
Using a formula that compares individual single-game performance to history, the numberFire Live platform takes this Net Expected Points formula and assigns a rating to a player's performance. Each week, that's what we'll show here -- the 20 best ratings from the prior weekend of football.
Here are Week 17's results:
| Player | Position | Rating |
|---|---|---|
| Philip Rivers | QB | 97 |
| Albert Wilson | WR | 96 |
| Orleans Darkwa | RB | 95 |
| Alvin Kamara | RB | 95 |
| Travis Benjamin | WR | 91 |
| Tyler Boyd | WR | 90 |
| Wayne Gallman | RB | 88 |
| Amari Cooper | WR | 87 |
| Jameis Winston | QB | 86 |
| Peyton Barber | RB | 85 |
| Leonard Fournette | RB | 85 |
| Matthew Stafford | QB | 85 |
| Chris Godwin | WR | 85 |
| JuJu Smith-Schuster | WR | 84 |
| Adam Humphries | WR | 84 |
| Dion Lewis | RB | 83 |
| Matt Breida | RB | 83 |
| Keenan Allen | WR | 82 |
| Matt Ryan | QB | 82 |
| Latavius Murray | RB | 81 |
- Philip Rivers did all he could to get the Los Angeles Chargers into the playoffs in Week 17, as he graded out as our top performer. Rivers threw 37 times for 387 yards and 3 touchdowns. In all, he racked up 21.46 Passing NEP, and no other passer hit 15.00 Passing NEP in Week 17. Travis Benjamin did his part, too, catching 4 of 5 targets for 96 yards and a score (10.61 Reception NEP).
- Albert Wilson flashed in his opportunity with Patrick Mahomes in Week 17. Wilson hauled in 10 of 11 targets for 147 yards and 13.28 Reception NEP. His previous single-game high was 6.82 in Week 7, thanks to a 63-yard touchdown on his only catch.
- Orleans Darkwa earned his second 100-yard game of the season (and his second 75-yard game, too), as he reached 154 rushing yards. He needed 153 yards to trigger a $200,000 bonus in his contract. Entering the game, Darkwa had -6.22 Rushing NEP on the season but produced a positive 7.57 in Week 17.
- Alvin Kamara did it again. He tallied 44 yards and a score on his 9 carries (1.64 Rushing NEP) and added another 84 yards on 6 catches (5.88 Reception NEP).
- Tyler Boyd ended the Baltimore Ravens' playoff hopes with a last-minute catch and run for a score. He ended the game with 5 catches for 91 yards and a score, adding 11.31 expected points with his catches. Entering Week 17, he added 13.75 Reception NEP all season.