Any time two NFL teams square off for just a single game, anything can happen. Upsets happen all the time.
When two teams are as closely matched as the Philadelphia Eagles, who have been our top-ranked team for much of the year, and New England Patriots are, any little edge can turn the tide.
That includes the oft-overlooked realm of special teams. Which team has the upper hand in Super Bowl LII?
Special Teams Breakdown
If you're a frequent reader of numberFire, you know about our on record as being a fan of the new(ish) kickoff rule that places touchbacks on the 25, and their advantage over the Eagles is evident in the numbers.
Punts
Ryan Allen and Donnie Jones had nearly identical net averages on their punts this season, but a lot more goes into a punt than just net average.
Here's what NEP has to say about the punt and return games for both sides this season.
| Area | New England | Philadelphia |
|---|---|---|
| Punting NEP | 9.97 | 1.49 |
| Punting NEP per Punt | 0.14 | 0.02 |
| Punt Return NEP | 1.11 | -0.06 |
| Punt Return NEP/Return | 0.01 | 0.00 |
Again, the Pats come out on top, especially in Punting NEP. It's not really a surprise that New England holds an edge on both kickoffs and punts, given their top-three status in the league in overall Special Teams NEP, but this certainly suggests that the field position battle could favor New England given their punt team success.
Kickers
Last but certainly not least, we have a battle between Jake Elliott and Stephen Gostkowski for field goals and extra points. With New England's tendency to win Super Bowls by three to six points, every kick will count.
This one is close, but Elliott has outperformed Gostkowski this season, adding 0.51 Field Goal NEP per attempt, compared to 0.48 for Gostkowski.
Elliott is 5 for 6 on 50-plus yard attempts this season, 12 of 13 from 40 to 49 yards out, and just 4 of 7 from 30 to 39 yards. He also missed an extra point against the Atlanta Falcons in the Divisional Round. Still, the 23-year-old kicker is 10 of 11 in the fourth quarter this year (Gostkowski is 8 of 9).
Gostkowski is four for five on field goals longer than 50 yards, if you include his miss in the Divisional Round against the Tennessee Titans. The only range he's missed from is 40 to 49 yards, where he's 8 for 11 this season.
Takeaways
Our algorithms view the Patriots as 64% favorites in this game, and they're favored by 4.5 points, per bookmakers. That's still a tight enough spread where special teams could sway the game one way or the other.
Unfortunately for Eagles fans, the Patriots essentially match or best Philadelphia in the major facets of special teams, according to our numbers.