We're only hours away from the start of the 2014 NFL Draft, and the rumors and smokescreens are filling up Twitter feeds and Google searches across the Internet. It's time for some perspective.
Here at numberFire, we use Net Expected Points data to determine the efficiency of NFL players and teams. You can learn more about he’s not sure if they’re going to be “able to or not†when it comes to re-signing Dalton.
So which quarterbacks in this draft should they target, and where should they pull the trigger on selecting one? Their first-round pick may present the opportunity for Fresno State’s Derek Carr or even Louisville’s Teddy Bridgewater, and either of those players have a ceiling that exceeds Dalton’s.
But waiting any longer for a quarterback is only going to give the Bengals another mediocre option. Dalton finished just outside the top 10 among quarterbacks using NEP data last season, right in line with David Fucillo of Niners Nation speculates that the 49ers could make a big move up the board to take a receiver in this year’s draft, especially considering the insane amount of picks the Niners have to begin with.
But is that the best move for the 49ers? The picks they’d use to move up the board could be spend overhauling their secondary, which will be without Carlos Rogers, and one that was the most disappointing unit on the team last season (especially when compared to the rival Seahawks, who had a stellar pass defense).
So while it certainly makes sense to move up in the draft and get the best player available, the Niners might be better off bolstering their defensive backfield rather than spending a king’s ransom to snag a wide receiver any earlier than they have to. This is a deep receiver class, and the Niners would be wise to patiently wait for the right guy.
Texans Undecided Between Mack and Clowney
The Houston Texans fell from grace in severe fashion last season, ending up with the first overall pick in one of the best draft classes in recent memory. But according to all reports, they’re not having an easy time figuring out which player to take at the top of the board.
According to Peter King of MMQB, there are rumors that the Texans prefer Khalil Mack of Buffalo to Jadeveon Clowney of South Carolina.
This obviously dismisses the other options, which include taking a quarterback like Blake Bortles of UCF, or an offensive lineman like Greg Robinson of Auburn. But if it really comes down to those two players, where are the Texans better off?
The Texans have the most dominant lineman in the NFL in Advanced Football Analytics, the Texans didn’t have a linebacker among the top-60 in their Win Probability Added metric last season.
And that’s where Mack comes in. Mack is a versatile athlete who can play outside linebacker and move in both directions, both rushing the quarterback and dropping back in coverage. He’s a tackling machine, a relentless pursuer of the football, and a dynamic player who would be a great compliment to Watt.
How do the Rams handle Sam Bradford?
For reportedly been in talks to trade Bradford, who is approaching the end of his huge rookie deal and has yet to prove himself as the franchise quarterback he seemed guaranteed to be when he was drafted.
And honestly, it’s tough to blame the Rams for having some doubts about their former first-overall pick. Bradford’s short stint at quarterback last season earned him an NEP per pass number outside of the top 20, just ahead of his replacement Jason Fitzgerald of Over the Cap points out, the running back position has been paid less and less money recently, to the point where running backs and kickers now have similar contract numbers when they hit the open market. So based on that thinking, don’t be surprised if the third round sees the first runner off the board.
Of course, that doesn’t mean the running back position isn’t important. But with the lack of durability and consistency at the position, teams have become gun-shy to commit to a player long-term with big money just to see him take a beating and not produce for the length of his contract.