This weekly article series will attempt to help you in two ways. First, we are going to be examining players who may not be the hot waiver pickups of the week. This will save you Free Agent Auction Bucks (FAAB) or waiver priority for when you need it most. Second, we will be diving into stats and trends that point to players improving their fantasy scores next week, not this current week. The goal is to sift through the rough to find those diamonds who emerge every single year, except you won't be sweating over whether or not you claimed them on waivers, because you will already own them. At least that's the goal.
Here's the fourth transparency report of the season. Before Week 4, I told you to grab these guys for a Week 5 start. Here's how they did:
Player | Positional Ranking | Half-PPR Points |
---|---|---|
Ryan Tannehill | 29 | 7.1 |
Mike Gesicki | 20 | 4.1 |
Paul Richardson | 46 | 7.0 |
Aaron Jones | 36 | 6.9 |
Javorius Allen | 29 | 8.8 |
Tannehill was a huge bust this week against the Bengals. In turn, that ruined Gesicki's chances of getting a touchdown. Richardson sustained a knee injury during Monday Night Football and didn't return to the game, which is a shame because his night was going well. Both Jones and Allen provided RB3 numbers, so if they landed in flex spots owners shouldn't be too disappointed.
Now, on to next week! Here are some guys who may not be startable for Week 6, but could be valuable next week and beyond. So, if you have space, add them now or hope that they fall through waivers after this week.
Frank Gore, RB, Dolphins
Yahoo ownership: 10%
For some reason, unbeknownst to the majority of fantasy players, Adam Gase will not give a lion's share of touches to third-year running back Kenyan Drake. Instead, timeless Frank Gore has been the go-to guy for the Miami Dolphins through five games. Here are their stats so far:
Att | Rush Yds | Tgt | Rec | Rec Yds | Total TDs | |
Kenyan Drake | 39 | 153 | 25 | 17 | 124 | 2 |
Frank Gore | 47 | 202 | 4 | 3 | 35 | 1 |
Frank Gore is averaging 40.4 yards rushing per game so far this season. Additionally, 23 of his 47 rushing attempts have come in the last two weeks -- the only two games the Dolphins have lost this season. The Dolphins have been giving more work to Gore and less to Drake as the season progresses.
If we fast forward to Week 7, Gore and the Dolphins will be playing against the Detroit Lions. The Lions have been porous to the running back position so far this year. They have allowed 712 rushing yards on 119 attempts which not only leads the league in yards, but also in yards per attempt at 5.98. Ryan Tannehill started the season well, but has struggled recently, so the Dolphins may want to stick to the run game and exploits the Lions' defensive weakness. With Gore in line for around double-digit carries, he's going to be projected for around 60 yards with a good shot at a touchdown.
D.J. Moore, WR, Panthers
Yahoo ownership: 18%
D.J. Moore is a rookie wide receiver who has had a quiet start to the season behind other names like Calvin Ridley, Keke Coutee and Christian Kirk. Through four games -- the Panthers were on bye in Week 4 -- Moore has only accumulated eight targets and three rushing attempts. However, Moore is third on the team in air yards with 140 yards, ahead of Jarius Wright. Intuitively, he's leading his team in average depth of target with a whopping 15.6 yards per target.
In Weeks 1 and 2, Moore played less than 26% of snaps both games. However, in Weeks 3 and 5, he had his playing time upped to at least 40% in each of these games. Moore's role in the offense will continue to expand. The Carolina Panthers head coach, Ron Rivera, also said that the team, "has to put more on D.J. Moore's plate." That would require Moore unseating Torrey Smith, who is currently ranked 143rd among wide receivers by PFF. It's very possible that this could happen sooner rather than later.
This week the Panthers are playing the Washington Redskins, who have allowed the third-fewest points to wide receivers so far. Let's skip them and look forward, as we always do here. If you're looking for a Moore breakout game, look no further than Week 7 against the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles are one of four teams who have given up over 1,000 receiving yards to wideouts this season. Moore will likely be drawing coverage from corner Jalen Mills, who has given up 25 receptions on 35 targets for 385 yards so far. It's time to grab Moore before he breaks out in a big way.
Baker Mayfield, QB, Browns
Yahoo ownership: 41%
In Week 7, there will be four teams on bye: the Green Bay Packers, Oakland Raiders, Seattle Seahawks and Pittsburgh Steelers. That means that quarterbacks Aaron Rodgers, Derek Carr, Russell Wilson and Ben Roethlisberger will not be playing, so if you are looking for a bye week fill-in one week early, I'd suggest Baker Mayfield.
You are going to want to grab him now because there will probably be three or four other teams looking for a quarterback to play. Baker has started just two games, but he has looked good so far. He is currently leading the four rookie quarterbacks in adjusted completion percentage and in the last two weeks he's had at least 41 passing attempts per game. In those two games he's completed 46 passes for 637 yards, 3 touchdowns and 3 interceptions.
Baker might be a mediocre start this week against the Los Angeles Chargers, but with only two teams on bye there are likely better options out there. In Week 7, on the other hand, it's a great week to start Baker in place of your starter-on-bye. The Cleveland Browns will be facing off with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who have given up the sixth-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks, despite only playing four games as they were on bye in Week 5. With Jameis Winston back in the starting role for the Bucs and the rust all shaken off, the Bucs' high-powered passing attack will probably leave a good game script for Baker and the Browns wide receivers to play catch-up. You're going to want to scoop Baker now, because someone may plug-and-play him next week.
Ricky Seals-Jones, TE, Cardinals
Yahoo ownership: 23%
The tight end landscape is ugly this year. And it feels like this is said every year, but if you didn't draft one of the top three guys or pick up someone like Eric Ebron or George Kittle, then you are probably hurting. Ricky Seals-Jones presents a low-owned option if you fall into the later category.
With Josh Rosen now starting for the Arizona Cardinals, things are starting to look up as they secured their first win of the season in Week 5 against the 49ers. Rosen isn't posting exciting numbers like Mayfield, but he's looking fine considering all of the other issues in Arizona right now. The most nameable is offensive coordinator Mike McCoy, who was part of the reason the 2017 Denver Broncos finished 20th in passing yards on the season. If McCoy were to be let go at any time during this season -- something I consider plausible -- then all offensive weapons will instantly increase in value.
In order to do that, we should look forward a week. In Week 7, we will have the Cardinals versus the very same Broncos. If there is a game where McCoy will have some insight as to how to beat the other team, it's this one. Seals-Jones will draw a matchup that is yielding the fourth-most fantasy points to tight ends, despite their reputation as a "good" defense. The Broncos' defensive backs outside of Chris Harris have been pedestrian so far. Seals-Jones has seen six targets in three out of five games so far, and that number should continue to rise as the offense gains momentum under Rosen.
Cleveland Browns D/ST
Yahoo ownership: 33%
Here is a quick defensive option if you are in deeper leagues where stashing a defense is necessary sometimes. In Week 7, the Cleveland D/ST will play the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. At first glance, this may seem like an odd choice, but it's a sneaky good grab. The Browns are currently the ninth-ranked D/ST, and have scored eight or more fantasy points in all but one game this season. They are also leading the NFL in takeaways and turnover differential through five weeks.
Also, in the last three weeks the Bucs have given up an average of three sacks per game due to poor offensive line play. The Browns have had at least two sacks in every game so far, and had three sacks or more in three out of five games. The Browns will be a solid play in Week 7 when no one else knows it.