With NFL action rolling along, injury news often creates a situation that can be exploited in betting circles. Relatively unknown players step into starting roles, potentially creating a buying opportunity in the the right spot. Leveraging this knowledge against the field can lead to profitability.
With FanDuel's new sportsbook, people can wager on all types of contests and player prop bets, putting their knowledge to the test. With that said, here are few exploitable player prop bets this week.
Kirk Cousins Over 274.5 Passing Yards -102
A bet of $100 on Kirk Cousins eclipsing 274.5 passing yards nets $98 this week in a complete smash spot.
Cousins has already passed for 295 yards four times this year, playing in one of the league's premier pass-funnel offenses. The Minnesota Vikings currently rank 28th in rushing yards per game (87.3), which has allowed Cousins to attempt the fourth-most passes in the NFL (260).
To sweeten the matchup, the New York Jets will likely be without Trumaine Johnson, Buster Skrine, and Marcus Maye in their secondary. The Jets ranks 24th in sacks (13) and dead last in quarterback hits (20). Cousins should have a clean pocket against a decimated Jets secondary.
Our models peg Cousins at 305.69 passing yards this week, forecasting him to cruise past this player prop. Lock in this prop early before the line adjusts to the current game environment.
Joe Mixon Over 78.5 Rushing Yards -102
A bet of $100 on the over side of Joe Mixon's 78.5 rushing yard player prop nets $98 dollars. With Giovani Bernard out for at least another week, Mixon should dominate touches again in this backfield.
Mixon draws a tantalizing matchup against a swiss cheese Kansas City Chiefs defense. The Chiefs have allowed the sixth-most rushing yards to running backs this season (649) and currently rank as the league's worst rush defense, according to our schedule-adjusted metrics. While Mixon's game script could be better with his team 6-point road underdogs, this game has the highest total (57.5 points) on the slate, indicating a lot of offensive production on both sides.
Also working in Mixon's favor is his immense workload. With Bernard out, Mixon has handed 92.6 and 88.2 percent of the Cincinnati Bengals' running back touches in the past two weeks.
We currently project Mixon for 76.30 rushing yards, but on a particularly tough slate, this matchup stands out. Currently projected for 16.88 carries, Mixon has at least 84 yards rushing in every game in which he's seen at least 17 rushing attempts. Fire up Mixon in this likely shootout.
Damion Ratley Over 35.5 Receiving Yards -102
We can't talk about swiss cheese without mentioning the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' secondary. Anyone targeting this secondary has been printing money all year. A $100 bet Damion Ratley besting 35.5 receiving yards will net $98 here.
With Rashard Higgins on the shelf, Ratley, a sixth-round rookie, stepped in to play 88 percent of the Cleveland Browns snaps last week, seeing 8 targets for 82 yards. At the very least, Ratley should continue to play in three-wide sets this week, and he'll be facing the league's second-worst secondary, per our metrics. However, it is conceivable that Ratley sees increase playing time with Antonio Callaway regularly disappointing. Last week, Callaway managed a mere 2 catches on 10 targets.
Allowing the second-most receiving yards (1,835), Tampa Bay should remain a target each and every week. This game also comes with a high total of 51 points, projecting some volume for each passing game. While all Cleveland pass catchers remain in play, Ratley's prop is the most enticing as 35.5 comes in far too low for a player projected to play a majority of the snaps against a hapless secondary.