Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Jason Cole tweeted that, in January, Smith was looking for a deal above the seven-year, $126 million contract given to Per Spotrac, on an average salary basis, there’s an $8.6 million difference between the number 12 quarterback, Tom Brady, and the numbers 17 quarterback, Andrew Luck. That gap is larger than the $7.4 million difference between Brady and the highest average salary, Aaron Rodgers.
Smith isn’t what many would consider a franchise quarterback, even though his recent seasons compare favorably to Cutler. Before the 2012 season, Smith agreed to a three-year, $25.25 million contract to return to San Francisco. With an average salary of $8.4 million for this contract, a raise to $18 million on a new contract would more than double his per season value. While the smarter contract decisions are based on expected future performance rather than past seasons, it’s not hard to imagine the Chiefs struggling to believe Smith can double his value on the field. Doubling Smith’s Pass NEP would put him in the Matthew Stafford or Ben Roethlisberger range, which in all likelihood is above’s Smith’s current ceiling.
Amazingly, though, in his ninth year in the league, Smith will only be in his age-30 season. That should leave the possibility of two to three more peak years before he hits an age when quarterbacks tend to start the decline phase.
The franchise tag is a likely option if 2014 goes well and Kansas City wants to see what Smith has left in the tank for what would be his age-31 season. Right now, that tag would be around $17.5 million using the current projected top five quarterback salaries in 2015. If that number does come under $18 million, the Chiefs would be able to keep Smith for an additional year below his reported asking price. By that time, Kansas City could know what they have in 2014 fifth-round draft pick Aaron Murray or be ready to find another young, cheap quarterback in the draft.
If Smith really does want Cutler money in his next deal, he might have to settle for taking the Cutler structure as well. Agreeing to get short-term guaranteed money up front and allowing de facto club options afterwards could be the only way Smith ends up with the impression of a long term deal.