NFL
Making Sense of the San Diego Backfield: Donald Brown's Impact
Can you really trust Ryan Mathews to be the bell cow of the San Diego backfield in 2014?

At times during the 2013 regular season, the San Diego Chargers caught lightning in a bottle - both literally and figuratively - seeming to finally overcome a previously enigmatic offense. Behind first year head coach Mike McCoy, Pro-Football-Reference, of Woodhead's 106 carries in 2013, only four (4%) were on third down. And 21 of his 87 targets (24%) were on third down. So considering his size and the surprise element of Woodhead running the ball, his -4.35 Rushing NEP (ranked 25th) and -0.04 Rushing NEP/Rush (ranked 27th) actually displays Woodhead's running ability on downs when defenses are expecting more running plays.

All of this is to say that the Chargers now have three pretty efficient running backs - at least in terms of 2013 numbers. Does their historical production paint as nice of a picture?

2012CarriesRushing NEPRushing NEP/CarryReceptionsReception NEP
Mathews184-14.42 (41st)-0.08 (36th)398.67 (26th)
Woodhead757.1 (9th)0.09 (3rd)4041.67 (1st)
Brown108-5.97 (25th)-0.06 (31st)94.21 (39th)

2011CarriesRushing NEPRushing NEP/CarryReceptionsReception NEP
Mathews2224.54 (14th)0.02 (18th)5029.06 (5th)
Woodhead778.29 (11th)0.11 (5th)188.97 (31st)
Brown1349.76 (9th)0.07 (10th)162.09 (51st)

From the table, the 2012 year highlights that Woodhead was first in Receiving NEP among all of the 54 running backs with 75 carries or more, and was extremely efficient with a Rushing NEP of 7.1 (9th) and a Rushing NEP/Rush of 0.09 (3rd). He posted nearly identical rushing stats in 2011 as well, with significantly less action in the passing game. Though he's been fortunate to play in highly effective offenses, Woodhead certainly is a worthwhile running back to get involved, especially through the air. He's just not a volume player given his size.

Mathews' 2012 was abysmal and injury riddled, compiling a Rushing NEP (-14.42) that ranked 41st out of 54 running backs. However, Mathews had a solid and underrated 2011, posting a Rushing NEP of 4.54 (14th out of 64 running backs with 75 plus carries), similar to 2013. And his season on a per rush basis was identical to 2013 as well.

Lastly, Brown, who basically replaces Ronnie Brown on the depth chart (Ronnie Brown had 45 carries and 8 catches last season and didn't do much with them), has had two very efficient campaigns over his last three seasons. He's mostly played in a committee during this time (to be fair, his whole career), but this sheds light as to why San Diego wanted him as part of their committee - he can be very effective.

Given historical context, it seems as though Mathews is certainly still the candidate to receive the bulk of the carries in San Diego, while Woodhead continues to be their top receiving back. Brown can do a little bit of both, but given his efficient ground game play, he may take more away from Mathews than Woodhead in terms of carries. That's only natural though, as Mathews topped his career high by 63 attempts a season ago.

Brown will more than likely assume all of the 45 carries that Ronnie Brown had last year, and could easily grab another 50 or so. While this is certainly a hit to Mathews' fantasy value, it should allow him to stay healthier, all while continuing to see over 200 attempts. If he performs like he did in 2013, he'll still be efficient enough to stay relevant.

While none of these running backs will be selected incredibly early in fantasy drafts, they each have value of some sort. And if the Chargers continue to pound the ball as much and as effectively as they did last year, each runner could find themselves as values come draft day.

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