In today’s NFL, you can’t let even an average quarterback walk away.
Last off-season, overthecap.com, he’d become one of five passers making $20 million or more per season.
And when you compare his 2013 output to some of those quarterbacks – and even the ones who are making a little less than he is – the outcome isn’t that bad at all.
| Annual Salary | Total NEP | Cost Per Net Expected Point | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aaron Rodgers | $22.00 Million | 196.44 | $111,993.48 |
| Matt Ryan | $20.75 Million | 57.58 | $360,368.18 |
| Joe Flacco | $20.10 Million | 0.99 | $20,303,030.30 |
| Drew Brees | $20.00 Million | 181.78 | $110,023.10 |
| Peyton Manning | $19.20 Million | 262.88 | $73,037.13 |
| Jay Cutler | $18.10 Million | 44.52 | $406,558.85 |
| Tony Romo | $18.00 Million | 71.04 | $253,378.38 |
| Colin Kaepernick | $21.00 Million | 88.67 | $236,833.20 |
The chart above shows the top quarterbacks in terms of annual salary (keep in mind, contracts are structured much differently from player to player and guaranteed money is insanely important to understand here), and how many points those signal-callers added for their team in 2013 (Total NEP). Because both Aaron Rodgers and Jay Cutler didn’t play the entire season, I did a quick extrapolation of their numbers (that’s not very mathematical of me, I know) to ensure everyone was on the same 16-game playing field.
The final column in the chart, in turn, shows the cost for each point added by the individual quarterback in 2013, making the assumption that both Cutler and Kaepernick were making this money a season ago.
And as you can see, the 49ers are spending pretty similarly (in context) as the Cowboys are with Tony Romo, despite paying more money for their quarterback. And while Matt Ryan had a down year by his standards in 2013, it’s safe to assume that the value of the 49ers’ contract with Kaepernick isn’t far off from what the Falcons are giving Ryan, too.
This is by no means the end-all to a contract argument because, like I said, the contract structure is important – part of the reason people overreacted with Jay Cutler’s deal was because they ignored the fact that Chicago can cheaply get out of it after three years. But when basing this off of production, it makes sense. Kaepernick’s money is comparable to other top-paid quarterbacks in the league.
Well, except for Joe Flacco. What are you doing, Baltimore?
Clearly production is going to fluctuate, and Kaepernick's high guaranteed money total - the most we've ever seen - doesn't necessarily allow for much of a decline in play. In other words, he'll have to continue his pace over the next three or so seasons for this thing to be a worthy deal.
But I think it's reasonable for us to think that he'll keep doing what he's doing. The 49ers have decent playmakers in the passing game in Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis, and they've started compiling backfield talent over the last few seasons in the draft. And, of course, the team is built on defense, playing a style that involves controlling the clock with a low pass-to-run ratio (0.90 pass-to-run ratio last year, lowest in the NFL).
Even with the 49ers being one of the run-heaviest teams in the NFL, however, Kaepernick's still getting it done when it comes to volume statistics. After all, he ranked ninth in Passing Net Expected Points in his first season as a full-time starter in the league last year. And that's because he's smart, efficient and makes plays when it matters.
Aren't those things you'd want in a quarterback?
So while we listen to pundits over the next few days speak to the astounding numbers that fill Colin Kaepernick's new contract, keep in mind that it's not abnormal. This is the new norm. This is how quarterback contracts are formulated nowadays because the market calls for it. And at least for the 49ers, they've signed a quarterback who's already proven to be a fringe top-10 passer. The Ravens and Bears can't exactly say that.