The beginning of June is a magical time for football fans. After waiting nearly six months for any meaningful football news, we rejoice when teams reconvene for OTAs. We get a sneak preview of what our favorite teams may look like come the end of August when the games start to count.
Along with all this goodness comes another side of OTAs that can be a bit of a headache – coach speak. Every year coaches will brag that “Player X is in the best shape of his career,†and that “Player Y is going to see more carries than he can handle.â€
Prior to last season, Buffalo Bills coaches claimed they were planning on giving running back “until he throws up.†Although Spiller was nagged by an ankle injury in 2013, it seems obvious now that the Bills envisioned “25-30 touches a game.†numberFire’s own Leo Howell did an excellent job describing why this is highly unlikely to happen.
The next contestant on the Wheel of Coach Speak? Seattle Seahawks offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell.
According to NFL.com, Bevell said that second-year running back Net Expected Points (NEP) metric, we can attempt to see if Michael or Turbin have done enough in their limit roles to warrant a larger share of the offense.
In 2012, Turbin had -6.89 Rush NEP on 80 carries. This ranked 5th out of 12 running backs with 75 to 100 carries. In 2013, he accumulated -7.63 Rush NEP, ranking dead last out of eight qualifying running backs. Although it’s not uncommon to have a negative Rushing NEP – due to the fact that running the ball is generally less effective than passing – Turbin’s numbers compared to running backs with similar workloads does not set himself apart.
As a rookie in 2013, Michael’s 0.60 Rushing NEP on 18 carries ranked 4th out of the 11 running backs with 15-30 carries. While he ranks near the top in this given subset, the extremely small sample size is a bit problematic when trying to show how effective Michael might be given more carries.
It's important to remember that Seattle selected Michael in the second round in the 2013 NFL Draft, so they're fairly invested in his success. And by all accounts so far this preseason, Michael has impressed the coaching staff - not only in his running ability, but catching the ball and pass-blocking as well. Pedigree and praise from the coaching staff are both good things, but until Michael proves he can be effective on the field, I’m leaning towards the side of cautious optimism regarding a much larger offensive role.
With Lynch under contract for two more seasons, it makes sense for the Seahawks to simply run him into the ground while they have him. He’s shown no real signs of slowing down at age 28, and should continue to demand 280-plus carries, barring injury or an act of God.
While Michael and Turbin are certain to be incorporated in the Seahawks offense, those predicting the end of Marshawn Lynch because of Bevell’s comments are likely to be very disappointed.