Fantasy Football: The Report, Week 14

NFL

JJ Zachariason Dec 5th, 2018

How good of a play is Jaylen Samuels this week in fantasy football?

What is The Report? It's a comprehensive, statistical look at how teams and players are functioning offensively, with notes as to what it all means for the fantasy football future. Each week, The Report will feature charts on team play-calling tendencies, player usage close to the end zone, deep ball rates, and so much more. With added commentary, the purpose is to not only hand you information, but provide actionable information to crush both season-long and daily fantasy football.

Let's dig into Week 14's report.

Team Play-Calling

Team	Pass Att	Rush Att	Ratio	+/- Ratio	RZ Plays	RZ Ratio	GL Plays	GL Ratio
ARI	353	270	1.31	1.12	67	1.23	13	0.86
ATL	468	249	1.88	2.03	99	1.61	32	1.46
BAL	461	376	1.23	1.14	123	0.92	27	0.69
BUF	369	349	1.06	0.97	85	0.73	19	0.73
CAR	403	306	1.32	1.34	108	0.93	32	0.68
CHI	399	339	1.18	1.21	106	1.30	29	0.93
CIN	440	244	1.80	1.67	86	1.87	24	1.40
CLE	440	320	1.38	1.36	87	1.12	28	0.56
DAL	365	335	1.09	1.24	110	1.20	29	0.81
DEN	413	297	1.39	1.49	95	1.26	23	0.92
DET	446	286	1.56	1.55	118	1.36	20	0.67
GB	471	256	1.84	1.78	94	1.94	18	2.00
HOU	365	378	0.97	1.10	120	1.45	36	1.77
IND	494	294	1.68	1.88	133	1.71	37	1.85
JAX	424	322	1.32	1.15	86	1.21	19	0.73
KC	429	297	1.44	1.71	133	1.51	40	0.74
LAC	384	304	1.26	1.45	105	1.14	22	1.00
LAR	416	345	1.21	1.39	165	0.99	34	0.55
MIA	358	287	1.25	1.21	64	1.00	8	3.00
MIN	491	253	1.94	1.75	94	2.03	20	1.86
NE	437	352	1.24	1.43	136	0.97	40	0.48
NO	391	363	1.08	1.36	166	0.98	55	0.67
NYG	438	250	1.75	1.50	120	1.45	30	1.00
NYJ	398	307	1.30	1.24	73	1.21	10	1.00
OAK	426	287	1.48	1.31	107	1.14	26	0.73
PHI	452	298	1.52	1.56	129	1.08	24	0.85
PIT	522	263	1.98	1.97	106	1.59	33	0.65
SEA	326	380	0.86	0.87	105	1.06	22	0.83
SF	399	330	1.21	1.22	125	1.02	32	0.68
TB	479	301	1.59	1.42	129	1.35	31	1.07
TEN	338	334	1.01	1.17	105	1.02	25	0.56
WAS	403	313	1.29	1.44	93	0.90	21	0.40

The Pittsburgh Steelers currently own the highest pass-to-rush ratio in football, throwing the ball nearly two times for every rush. It's no surprise, then, that they've run the ball just 263 times this season, the sixth-fewest in the NFL. With James Conner sidelined for Week 14, we'll more than likely see somewhat of a split backfield between Jaylen Samuels and Stevan Ridley for Pittsburgh. But considering Pittsburgh's splits, it's easy to side with Samuels, who entered the league as sort of a hybrid player, having played all over the place in college. He's even tight end-eligible in your Yahoo! fantasy league. The real issue is that Ridley could steal goal-line work, capping Samuels' upside.

Over the last two weeks, we've seen Buffalo's neutral script pass-to-rush attempt ratio jump by 0.07. That may not seem significant, but heading into Week 12, they were sitting at 0.90, and over the team's last two games, it's been 1.16. Keep in mind, those are the two games where we've seen Josh Allen under center. Maybe they're growing confident in his abilities, or at least allowing him to do more and learn. That's not a bad thing at all for fantasy football.

Since Lamar Jackson took over as starter for Baltimore, they've been (predictably) more run-heavy. After Week 10, they had a 1.69 (nice) ratio overall, and a 1.71 pass-to-rush attempt ratio when the game was within six points. Over Jackson's three starts, those numbers are 0.48 and 0.57, respectively. You can see it in the chart -- those two numbers are insanely low. Only the Seahawks and Texans have an overall pass-to-rush ratio south of 1.00 this year, so Baltimore is way under the norm with Lamar Jackson. And that's hurt all pass-catchers on the team in fantasy as a result.

Schedule-Adjusted Net Expected Points

To learn more about numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) metric, check out the glossary. (Note: Negative figures for defense are good.)

Team	Adj NEP	Adj Pass NEP	Adj Rush NEP	Adj D NEP	Adj D Pass NEP	Adj D Rush NEP
ARI	-84.00	-63.36	-16.25	48.78	39.76	18.53
ATL	109.27	105.83	-10.55	147.38	105.02	42.35
BAL	59.55	22.84	20.14	-19.05	-3.94	-12.96
BUF	-52.88	-68.99	15.55	17.64	8.77	0.80
CAR	102.36	55.36	45.17	105.79	92.28	12.34
CHI	90.21	47.59	19.96	1.65	22.72	-24.98
CIN	56.03	52.47	-0.85	105.09	76.30	41.53
CLE	1.35	-4.26	1.63	5.37	3.86	14.24
DAL	37.67	10.59	37.76	25.54	36.50	-19.33
DEN	74.02	54.49	30.52	13.01	20.48	9.55
DET	56.62	42.24	9.12	122.30	94.25	25.69
GB	104.57	69.11	38.85	111.39	70.07	34.62
HOU	86.86	74.08	11.43	39.89	49.00	-20.38
IND	109.59	91.90	12.87	91.24	83.75	-1.82
JAX	-2.12	11.00	1.19	30.95	18.03	2.98
KC	211.63	180.27	28.25	119.23	54.43	44.13
LAC	193.30	139.15	53.22	53.13	25.31	28.82
LAR	158.90	145.30	27.70	48.43	25.42	18.40
MIA	14.98	18.04	-1.65	137.74	87.95	35.93
MIN	36.34	70.21	-27.53	7.65	30.38	-20.40
NE	161.47	121.02	35.78	57.47	51.41	14.62
NO	204.96	159.84	25.73	64.41	54.53	-2.13
NYG	49.02	46.50	11.27	91.49	69.61	21.54
NYJ	-51.23	-40.90	3.64	71.51	54.43	25.43
OAK	24.47	45.46	-9.34	136.00	100.62	47.84
PHI	66.92	46.47	14.07	72.90	50.76	26.74
PIT	140.00	124.87	16.81	49.90	36.40	8.36
SEA	111.18	87.82	30.30	59.61	50.21	-6.02
SF	-0.68	4.52	-13.12	106.68	85.40	10.07
TB	92.22	96.93	-4.17	119.69	98.24	24.07
TEN	49.77	46.72	7.87	82.85	71.69	24.36
WAS	13.72	-12.27	29.76	61.19	46.03	15.39

As usual, there's not a lot of change within the expected points chart this week. One swap was Baltimore becoming the league's best secondary, and they actually rank as the only team with a negative schedule-adjusted Net Expected Points total within the pass defense category. They'll be in Kansas City this week against numberFire's top-rated passing offense, so it'll make for an awesome matchup.

Here's your "Which secondaries should I target with my fantasy quarterback?" update: Look to expose the Atlanta, Oakland, Tampa Bay, Detroit, and (a new one) Carolina secondaries.

Team Pass Defense Splits

The chart below displays the raw number of yards and the percentage of yards allowed by pass defense to wide receivers, tight ends, and running backs.

Arizona hasn't given up a ton of yards through the air this year, and that includes to wide receivers. They rank ninth-best in yards allowed to the position. But (and this is the reason for the chart), a hefty 64.3% of their passing yards allowed have gone to wideouts. That's 11th-highest in the league. Detroit wide receivers are still in play this week given they're just two-point favorites, so the game script should be fairly neutral.

Looking at the chart, it's obvious that New Orleans struggles against wide receivers. That gives the Buccaneers a plus matchup in Week 14, as no group of wide receivers has produced more receiving yards than Tampa Bay's. And it's not close, either -- they have nearly 400 more yards receiving than the second-place Los Angeles Rams. Considering this game is being played in Tampa Bay this week, you can confidently start Jameis Winston and his wideouts.

Larry Fitzgerald is kind of an interesting fantasy option this week. He hasn't been super reliable with just two games of over 50 yards this season, but he's going up against Detroit, a team that's allowed the second-most yards to slot receivers this year, per Pro Football Focus. And with Christian Kirk now on IR, more targets could go Fitz's way.

You've got to start Adam Thielen this week, but his matchup against Seattle isn't exactly a fun one. They've only allowed one slot touchdown this year while giving up the second-fewest yards to slot receivers. And as you can see in the chart, they're pretty average against wide receivers in general while surrendering a high percentage of yards to opposing running backs. Again, you can't bench Thielen, but there's some worry that he plays below his norm.

The Raiders have given up the second-most receiving yards to tight ends this year, but they've allowed a staggering 30.0% of their passing yards to go to the position. That's the highest rate in football. With the Steelers having a pass-friendly approach this year, this bodes well for Vance McDonald.

Team Directional Rushing

All numbers below reflect yards per play.

I mentioned the Steelers' running back situation at the top, and a reason you should be interested in said situation is because Oakland's been really bad against the run this year. According to numberFire's expected points model, only two teams have allowed a higher Success Rate (the percentage of positive expected point plays) to running backs this season. So it's a great matchup for both Samuels and Ridley.

Justin Jackson only played about 22% of Los Angeles' snaps on Sunday, but he was easily the most effective back on the team. Austin Ekeler had just 21 yards on 13 carries, while Jackson went for 63 on 8. We should probably expect an uptick in snaps this week, and considering the Chargers are 14-point favorites, they'll likely see a nice positive game script. That means more potential volume for Jackson against a team that ranks 31st in Success Rate against running backs this year.

The Patriots shouldn't have much trouble running on the Dolphins this week. They've been below-average against the run all over the field this year, all while surrendering top-10 numbers to the position in fantasy. Start James White and Sony Michel confidently.

Like Mahomes versus the Baltimore secondary, we've got another best-versus-best type matchup with Todd Gurley going up against the Bears. Success Rate has Chicago as the top-ranked defense, and on a per-rush basis, only three teams have been more efficient at stopping the run. You can't leave Gurley on your bench, of course, but like Adam Thielen above, he's someone who you may need to downgrade slightly this week. And by downgrade, I mean "he's not the obvious top running back play."

Running Back Usage

Player	Att	Rush %	Targets	Target %	Snap %	Last Wk Rate	RZ Att	RZ Targets	GL Att
Todd Gurley	233	67.54%	61	14.66%	85.4%	94.2%	61	16	20
Saquon Barkley	195	78.00%	91	20.78%	84%	79.2%	38	13	13
Christian McCaffrey	163	53.27%	92	22.83%	97.2%	100%	32	13	11
Alvin Kamara	161	44.35%	84	21.48%	66.5%	67.3%	42	23	14
James Conner	201	76.43%	68	13.03%	81.1%	72.1%	34	7	17
Ezekiel Elliott	240	71.64%	68	18.63%	89.2%	88.7%	31	14	8
Melvin Gordon	153	50.33%	60	15.63%	64.5%	N/A	20	13	3
James White	76	21.59%	103	23.57%	58.3%	44.6%	16	18	6
Tarik Cohen	74	21.83%	77	19.30%	46.2%	51.2%	10	11	1
Phillip Lindsay	154	51.85%	32	7.75%	44.2%	42.4%	20	5	6
David Johnson	205	75.93%	51	14.45%	81.9%	83.9%	23	7	7
Joe Mixon	154	63.11%	42	9.55%	62.4%	57.4%	19	6	7
T.J. Yeldon	100	31.06%	74	17.45%	59.4%	60.3%	12	5	2
Adrian Peterson	192	61.34%	20	4.96%	47.9%	35.6%	27	2	8
Kenyan Drake	96	33.45%	59	16.48%	57.9%	54.5%	11	6	1
Aaron Jones	112	43.75%	32	6.79%	49.7%	51.3%	18	3	4
Tevin Coleman	128	51.41%	40	8.55%	57.5%	54.7%	15	9	6
Nick Chubb	131	40.94%	16	3.64%	30.9%	47.4%	17	4	7
Matt Breida	132	40.00%	25	6.27%	38.6%	13.2%	21	4	6
Lamar Miller	176	46.56%	27	7.40%	59.6%	53.9%	25	2	6
Austin Ekeler	83	27.30%	47	12.24%	39.6%	77.8%	13	4	3
Kerryon Johnson	118	41.26%	39	8.74%	42.8%	N/A	17	6	2
Isaiah Crowell	141	45.93%	27	6.78%	43.4%	63.8%	16	1	3
Dion Lewis	135	40.42%	51	15.09%	65.5%	58.8%	20	6	3
Nyheim Hines	73	24.83%	60	12.15%	47.6%	60.5%	18	7	2
Jalen Richard	36	12.54%	67	15.73%	39.2%	42.1%	4	4	1
Chris Carson	157	41.32%	17	5.21%	42.2%	58.6%	22	3	8
Jordan Howard	178	52.51%	20	5.01%	58%	41.5%	25	3	11
Marlon Mack	117	39.80%	18	3.64%	49.1%	36.8%	20	2	7
Latavius Murray	111	43.87%	24	4.89%	50.5%	19.7%	13	2	3
Peyton Barber	169	56.15%	21	4.38%	55%	61.5%	27	5	10
LeSean McCoy	143	40.97%	39	10.57%	57.7%	75%	18	1	4
Alex Collins	114	30.32%	21	4.56%	37.8%	N/A	21	5	6
Duke Johnson	28	8.75%	47	10.68%	40.9%	35.1%	3	6	0
Sony Michel	144	40.91%	11	2.52%	28.6%	40.5%	30	1	11
Mark Ingram	97	26.72%	18	4.60%	46%	40.4%	16	0	11
Mike Davis	90	23.68%	29	8.90%	38.5%	17.2%	15	1	3
Derrick Henry	128	38.32%	15	4.44%	35.8%	41.2%	22	1	7
Javorius Allen	41	10.90%	43	9.33%	34.1%	N/A	11	6	6
Theo Riddick	19	6.64%	62	13.90%	41.8%	52.8%	7	10	0
Leonard Fournette	90	27.95%	14	3.30%	35.7%	N/A	14	2	7
Frank Gore	139	48.43%	15	4.19%	42.1%	36.4%	13	3	1
Corey Clement	67	22.48%	25	5.53%	31.4%	30.7%	16	2	1
Ito Smith	70	28.11%	25	5.34%	31.2%	45.3%	18	2	4
Giovani Bernard	44	18.03%	37	8.41%	42.3%	41.2%	6	1	2
Dalvin Cook	74	29.25%	32	6.52%	55.8%	77%	9	1	1
Doug Martin	105	36.59%	19	4.46%	28.4%	52.6%	18	1	7
Marshawn Lynch	90	31.36%	20	4.69%	50.4%	N/A	15	5	3
Wendell Smallwood	63	21.14%	25	5.53%	31.2%	2.7%	10	5	1
Royce Freeman	96	32.32%	7	1.69%	27.1%	35.6%	16	0	3
LeGarrette Blount	113	39.51%	7	1.57%	26.1%	41.7%	23	0	10
Alfred Blue	128	33.86%	16	4.38%	41.7%	47.4%	11	2	3
Chris Thompson	29	9.27%	39	9.68%	28.5%	64.4%	3	4	2
Rashaad Penny	73	19.21%	12	3.68%	20.7%	20.7%	9	1	1
Devontae Booker	26	8.75%	34	8.23%	28.8%	22%	2	3	0
Chris Ivory	89	25.50%	19	5.15%	30.6%	16.7%	8	0	2
Spencer Ware	36	12.12%	18	4.20%	26.2%	69%	11	2	5

Let's talk about this Chiefs backfield. Without Kareem Hunt, Spencer Ware played 69% of the team's snaps and handled about 47% of the team's rushes. The snap rate wasn't horrendous, but KC was giving Hunt a 68% rushing share. That's a little worrisome, especially with the signing of Charcandrick West this week. Ware is still the guy you want in the backfield, but he's also rushed to a sub-30% Success Rate this year, which is far below average. Let's not pretend he's got this role locked up.

Chris Thompson returned in Week 14, and in a negative game script, he played over 64% of the team's snaps. He's not someone you can really trust in fantasy, but he's going to hurt Adrian Peterson's value -- Peterson saw his lowest snap rate since Week 5 on Monday night. With Mark Sanchez under center and an offensive line that's got issues, it's a backfield -- and offense, really -- that you should be avoiding.

Dalvin Cook has carried the ball either 9 or 10 times in his four games since returning from injury, but he's yet to find the end zone on the ground. Part of that is because he's had just one goal-line rush all season long. It doesn't help that Minnesota is the third-most pass-heavy team within their opponent's five-yard line this year, but it's making Cook tough to trust in non-PPR formats. In PPR leagues, he's fine enough, having seen 20 targets over the last four games. And this week, he'll face Seattle, a team that's seen 23.3% of their receiving yards allowed go to running backs. That's the second-highest rate in the league.

For whatever reason, the Packers decided that they wanted a split backfield against in Week 13. After seeing snap rates of at least 74% from Weeks 10 to 12, Aaron Jones played 51.3% of Green Bay's snaps this past Sunday, carrying the ball just 11 times. Jamaal Williams had seven carries, when he had totaled five attempts across the three games prior to Sunday. Why did this happen? Only Mike McCarthy knows. Fortunately, a coaching change could make Jones -- the objectively better runner between the two -- super relevant once again.

Wide Receiver Usage

Player	Targets	Target %	Snap %	Last Wk Rate	RZ Targets	< 10 Targets	GL Targets
Adam Thielen	136	27.70%	97%	100%	17	6	5
Davante Adams	127	26.96%	94%	94.7%	25	6	2
Antonio Brown	135	25.86%	94.9%	98.5%	16	6	2
Tyreek Hill	100	23.31%	88.4%	88.7%	12	6	4
Michael Thomas	105	26.85%	88%	98.1%	21	11	6
DeAndre Hopkins	114	31.23%	99.3%	98.7%	17	13	8
Julio Jones	133	28.42%	81.3%	77.4%	9	5	3
Odell Beckham	124	28.31%	93.7%	91.7%	20	8	5
JuJu Smith-Schuster	119	22.80%	84.2%	88.2%	23	8	6
Keenan Allen	113	29.43%	83.4%	92.1%	12	6	3
Mike Evans	105	21.92%	83.9%	87.7%	10	4	2
Stefon Diggs	120	24.44%	81.9%	77%	13	6	4
Robert Woods	99	23.80%	96.5%	95.7%	10	8	3
Tyler Boyd	97	22.05%	88.9%	97.1%	8	2	1
Emmanuel Sanders	98	23.73%	84.3%	67.8%	11	5	3
Brandin Cooks	90	21.63%	90%	95.7%	13	6	2
Tyler Lockett	56	17.18%	84.2%	69%	6	3	0
Kenny Golladay	92	20.63%	91.7%	97.2%	13	6	3
T.Y. Hilton	86	17.41%	78.2%	86.8%	14	9	7
Calvin Ridley	71	15.17%	60.5%	64.2%	7	3	2
Golden Tate	96	21.24%	69.6%	48%	10	7	2
Corey Davis	91	26.92%	89.3%	95.6%	14	8	4
Jarvis Landry	120	27.27%	88.2%	80.7%	16	5	3
A.J. Green	77	17.50%	60.9%	25%	14	6	5
DeSean Jackson	70	14.61%	49.6%	N/A	5	1	0
Chris Godwin	67	13.99%	58.9%	80%	12	9	3
Amari Cooper	71	N/A	77.7%	78.9%	11	7	2
Adam Humphries	73	15.24%	68.1%	63.1%	9	4	3
Sterling Shepard	76	17.35%	92.4%	80.6%	15	5	4
Cooper Kupp	56	13.46%	72%	N/A	12	7	0
Dede Westbrook	71	16.75%	74.8%	87.9%	9	3	0
Larry Fitzgerald	77	21.81%	90.8%	96.8%	11	5	4
Demaryius Thomas	70	19.18%	75.9%	78.9%	11	4	3
Julian Edelman	69	15.79%	87.9%	89.2%	14	8	3
D.J. Moore	56	13.90%	60.8%	94.3%	2	1	0
John Brown	79	17.14%	65.2%	53.1%	11	5	2
Taylor Gabriel	76	19.05%	79.8%	91.5%	6	5	3
Christian Kirk	68	19.26%	79.1%	85.5%	5	2	0
Allen Robinson	71	17.79%	75.6%	85.4%	9	4	2
Mohamed Sanu	62	13.25%	77.7%	83%	4	2	2
Josh Gordon	60	13.73%	68.6%	64.9%	7	4	2
Michael Crabtree	89	19.31%	67.6%	43.2%	9	4	1
Devin Funchess	71	17.62%	73.5%	45.7%	11	7	4
Mike Williams	42	10.94%	61.9%	54%	8	5	1
Alshon Jeffery	65	14.38%	80.3%	88%	11	4	2
Marvin Jones	62	13.90%	72.8%	N/A	11	6	1
Sammy Watkins	55	12.82%	58.8%	N/A	10	4	0
Tyrell Williams	44	11.46%	74%	79.4%	3	1	1
Nelson Agholor	79	17.48%	89.3%	86.7%	9	4	2
Zay Jones	69	18.70%	86.7%	91.7%	12	4	2
Willie Snead	80	17.35%	67.1%	81.5%	5	0	0
Donte Moncrief	70	16.51%	78.3%	77.6%	6	4	3
Anthony Miller	50	12.53%	64.1%	69.5%	10	5	2
Cole Beasley	64	17.53%	65.3%	66.2%	8	3	1
Will Fuller	45	12.33%	77%	N/A	5	3	2
Danny Amendola	62	17.32%	75.4%	N/A	1	1	0
Courtland Sutton	59	14.29%	72.3%	69.5%	4	2	1
Jordy Nelson	51	11.97%	78%	90.8%	6	4	1
Antonio Callaway	62	14.09%	69.2%	71.9%	6	3	2

In a plus matchup, Courtland Sutton caught more than three passes in a game this season. He found the end zone against Cincinnati, too, which was a big plus, and his seven Week 13 targets were a season (and career) high. The Broncos have a pretty favorable schedule for the passing offense through Week 16, so Sutton could work as a flex option in 12-plus team formats.

Since Golden Tate joined the Eagles, Alshon Jeffery has a 14.5% target share in the Philly offense. In Jeffery's five other games prior -- the other five he's played this year -- his target share was 23.4%. This more than likely isn't a simple coincidence: Jeffery's value has dipped dramatically with the extra piece in the offense. You can't really trust him right now in your fantasy lineup.

At the beginning of the season, I touted Tyler Lockett as someone to buy in fantasy football. So don't think I'm hating when I say this: Those of you who have Tyler Lockett in fantasy football are lucky as hell.

Lockett's now scored in all but three games this year, giving him a touchdown on every 4.9 receptions. The league average at wide receiver this year is a touchdown on every 11.6 receptions. He's seen more than five targets just once since Doug Baldwin returned to the lineup. As reliable as he appears to be -- he just keeps finding the end zone -- he's kind of not.

Tight End Usage

Player	Targets	Target %	Snap %	Last Wk Rate	RZ Targets	< 10 Targets	GL Targets
Travis Kelce	114	26.57%	95.3%	97.2%	20	10	5
Zach Ertz	121	26.77%	93.7%	78.7%	19	7	3
Eric Ebron	88	17.81%	57.9%	76.3%	19	5	3
George Kittle	93	23.31%	85.5%	88.2%	12	7	4
Jared Cook	78	18.31%	73.6%	72.4%	12	9	3
Austin Hooper	73	15.60%	80.3%	71.7%	12	9	4
O.J. Howard	48	10.02%	60.8%	N/A	7	4	2
Jordan Reed	83	20.60%	64.4%	68.9%	7	5	1
Trey Burton	54	13.53%	81.3%	81.7%	11	7	3
Jimmy Graham	72	15.29%	75.2%	71.1%	8	4	4
David Njoku	69	15.68%	80.1%	80.7%	4	3	1
Kyle Rudolph	59	12.02%	88.1%	98.4%	11	6	3
Vance McDonald	56	10.73%	55.9%	64.7%	5	2	1
Rob Gronkowski	54	12.36%	76.1%	98.6%	5	2	0
Chris Herndon	40	10.05%	49.1%	71%	4	0	0
Greg Olsen	38	9.43%	68.8%	18.6%	6	3	3
C.J. Uzomah	51	11.59%	83.3%	98.5%	4	3	2
Jesse James	35	6.70%	55.3%	48.5%	5	2	1
Mark Andrews	37	8.03%	34.7%	39.5%	6	3	1
Ben Watson	36	9.21%	49.4%	38.5%	9	6	4
Jeff Heuerman	48	11.62%	76.9%	N/A	12	7	2
Cameron Brate	36	7.52%	41.4%	67.7%	9	3	2
Jonnu Smith	31	9.17%	79%	70.6%	5	5	2
Vernon Davis	29	7.20%	47%	51.1%	1	0	0
Evan Engram	33	7.53%	52.3%	N/A	5	1	1
Ricky Seals-Jones	56	15.86%	63.1%	35.5%	3	2	1
Dallas Goedert	31	6.86%	44.1%	52%	5	1	1
Gerald Everett	30	7.21%	26.1%	34.8%	8	5	1

Ricky Seals-Jones wasn't doing a whole lot with his high target share earlier in the season, but that share has taken a hit of late, as he's seen just eight targets over his last three games. He's not playing as much, and he can safely be dropped in the deeper leagues where he's still rostered.

C.J. Uzomah has 19 targets over his last two games, but he's had fewer than 40 yards receiving in both contests. According to Pro Football Focus, no tight end has run more routes than Uzomah over the last two weeks. So his peripherals are there to have a big outing, but the situation continues to not be ideal given the backup quarterback who's under center.

Without O.J. Howard over the last two weeks, Cameron Brate has 10 targets, accounting for 14.7% of the Bucs' pass attempts. That's totally average, but he's top-six in the league in routes run, which means he's at least providing the potential for more volume. It's not time to panic by any means, especially at the horrendous tight end position.

Deep Ball Passing

Player	15+ Yd Att	15+ Yd Att %	15+ Comp %	15+ % of Tot Yds	15+ Yd TD %
Josh Allen	57	29.84%	28.07%	39.74%	60.00%
Ryan Fitzpatrick	65	26.42%	53.85%	44.13%	35.29%
Mitchell Trubisky	78	24.30%	37.18%	36.90%	30.00%
Baker Mayfield	84	23.73%	46.43%	37.29%	27.78%
Patrick Mahomes	96	22.38%	50.00%	36.91%	24.39%
Jameis Winston	50	21.55%	44.00%	27.15%	25.00%
Aaron Rodgers	97	20.95%	43.30%	39.04%	33.33%
Jared Goff	86	20.77%	51.16%	33.32%	25.93%
Josh Rosen	55	20.15%	41.82%	36.65%	40.00%
Russell Wilson	65	19.94%	50.77%	38.18%	44.83%
Sam Darnold	57	19.72%	38.60%	32.06%	45.45%
Matt Ryan	87	18.91%	44.83%	29.39%	24.00%
Marcus Mariota	51	18.61%	49.02%	30.86%	18.18%
Alex Smith	61	18.60%	32.79%	25.32%	20.00%
Joe Flacco	70	18.47%	34.29%	25.72%	16.67%
Philip Rivers	69	18.16%	56.52%	33.18%	32.14%
Eli Manning	79	18.12%	46.84%	31.60%	20.00%
Tom Brady	76	17.51%	43.42%	27.77%	30.00%
Deshaun Watson	62	17.03%	46.77%	26.39%	23.81%
Cam Newton	68	17.00%	38.24%	19.91%	20.83%
Andy Dalton	62	16.99%	43.55%	27.32%	28.57%
Ryan Tannehill	30	16.85%	30.00%	24.45%	46.15%
Drew Brees	64	16.67%	59.38%	33.20%	30.00%
Josh McCown	18	16.51%	22.22%	17.44%	0.00%
Ben Roethlisberger	85	16.44%	37.65%	28.85%	42.31%
Carson Wentz	60	16.26%	40.00%	25.83%	16.67%
Brock Osweiler	28	15.73%	35.71%	22.21%	16.67%
Andrew Luck	75	15.34%	44.00%	26.67%	21.88%
Case Keenum	63	15.33%	46.03%	31.53%	35.71%
Blake Bortles	56	15.18%	37.50%	24.49%	30.77%
Kirk Cousins	69	14.05%	43.48%	23.30%	39.13%
Dak Prescott	51	14.01%	41.18%	25.27%	28.57%
Matthew Stafford	60	13.67%	46.67%	26.73%	27.78%
Derek Carr	56	13.27%	41.07%	21.75%	25.00%
Lamar Jackson	10	12.99%	50.00%	29.26%	50.00%
Nick Mullens	14	9.93%	57.14%	20.05%	14.29%

As I noted earlier, Baltimore's been incredible run-heavy with Lamar Jackson at quarterback. They've also been very conservative when he's dropped back to pass. Just 13% of his throws are traveling 15 or more air yards, which is a higher rate than only Nick Mullens. This is just another reason Baltimore pass-catchers are ruined in fantasy football with Jackson under center, especially John Brown, who's a deep-ball specialist.

Josh Allen continues to set the pace in deep-ball rate, and his percentage of passes going deep increased pretty dramatically in Week 13, as he tossed it 15-plus air yards on 14 of his 33 attempts (42.2%). His ability in real football will keep getting questioned, but in fantasy, he's pretty damn fun.

Running Back Touchdown Regression

Regression analysis doesn't always have to be so complicated. As you'd expect, there's a decent correlation between yards gained and touchdowns scored. The regression analysis in The Report looks at running back and wide receiver yards gained, shows how many touchdowns they've scored, and then finds how many touchdowns they should have scored based on trends from the last seven NFL seasons.

Player	Rush Yds	TD	Should Have	Difference	Rec Yds	TD	Should Have	Difference	Total Difference
Todd Gurley	1175	15	7.86	7.14	474	4	2.07	1.93	9.06
Alvin Kamara	742	11	4.97	6.03	555	4	2.43	1.57	7.61
Kareem Hunt	824	7	5.52	1.48	378	7	1.65	5.35	6.83
Melvin Gordon	802	9	5.37	3.63	453	4	1.98	2.02	5.65
James White	329	4	2.20	1.80	659	6	2.88	3.12	4.92
James Conner	909	12	6.08	5.92	467	1	2.04	-1.04	4.87
Alex Collins	411	7	2.75	4.25	105	1	0.46	0.54	4.79
Nick Chubb	694	7	4.64	2.36	133	2	0.58	1.42	3.77
Kenyan Drake	439	4	2.94	1.06	311	4	1.36	2.64	3.70
Javorius Allen	110	3	0.74	2.26	196	2	0.86	1.14	3.41
Saquon Barkley	954	8	6.39	1.61	602	4	2.63	1.37	2.98
Aaron Jones	642	7	4.30	2.70	178	1	0.78	0.22	2.92
Kapri Bibbs	101	3	0.68	2.32	102	1	0.45	0.55	2.88
James Develin	6	3	0.04	2.96	41	0	0.18	-0.18	2.78
LeGarrette Blount	332	5	2.22	2.78	54	0	0.24	-0.24	2.54
Tevin Coleman	514	2	3.44	-1.44	271	5	1.19	3.81	2.37
Christian McCaffrey	863	5	5.78	-0.78	663	6	2.90	3.10	2.32
Leonard Fournette	314	4	2.10	1.90	134	1	0.59	0.41	2.31
Royce Freeman	397	5	2.66	2.34	28	0	0.12	-0.12	2.22
Ito Smith	221	4	1.48	2.52	133	0	0.58	-0.58	1.94
Phillip Lindsay	937	8	6.27	1.73	189	1	0.83	0.17	1.90
Doug Martin	445	2	2.98	-0.98	106	0	0.46	-0.46	-1.44
Marcus Murphy	205	0	1.37	-1.37	18	0	0.08	-0.08	-1.45
Jordan Wilkins	318	1	2.13	-1.13	74	0	0.32	-0.32	-1.45
Jacquizz Rodgers	85	0	0.57	-0.57	208	0	0.91	-0.91	-1.48
Gus Edwards	379	1	2.54	-1.54	7	0	0.03	-0.03	-1.57
Chris Ivory	298	1	1.99	-0.99	159	0	0.70	-0.70	-1.69
Bilal Powell	343	0	2.30	-2.30	110	1	0.48	0.52	-1.78
Dalvin Cook	312	0	2.09	-2.09	194	1	0.85	0.15	-1.94
Theo Riddick	74	0	0.50	-0.50	338	0	1.48	-1.48	-1.97
LeSean McCoy	478	2	3.20	-1.20	210	0	0.92	-0.92	-2.12
Alfred Blue	446	1	2.99	-1.99	107	0	0.47	-0.47	-2.45
Dion Lewis	464	1	3.11	-2.11	309	1	1.35	-0.35	-2.46
Lamar Miller	876	3	5.86	-2.86	144	1	0.63	0.37	-2.49
Jalen Richard	214	0	1.43	-1.43	478	0	2.09	-2.09	-3.52
Frank Gore	616	0	4.12	-4.12	100	1	0.44	0.56	-3.56

We've got a similar story with the running back touchdown regression chart this week. One player who's intriguing is Lamar Miller, who's now scored just three times via the rush despite his 876 yards on the ground. He doesn't have a ton of goal-line attempts (6), but that number should almost be double what it is given his yardage accumulation. The Texans have two strong matchups upcoming for him, so perhaps we see a little positive regression.

Wide Receiver Touchdown Regression

Player	Rec Yds	TD	Should Have	Difference
Antonio Brown	1028	12	6.16	5.84
Tyler Lockett	713	9	4.28	4.72
Davante Adams	1115	11	6.69	4.31
Tyreek Hill	1119	11	6.71	4.29
Mike Williams	471	7	2.82	4.18
Calvin Ridley	647	8	3.88	4.12
Jaron Brown	150	5	0.90	4.10
John Ross	189	5	1.13	3.87
Anthony Miller	399	6	2.39	3.61
Chris Conley	248	5	1.49	3.51
Aldrick Robinson	187	4	1.12	2.88
Kenny Stills	369	5	2.21	2.79
Cooper Kupp	566	6	3.39	2.61
David Moore	413	5	2.48	2.52
Curtis Samuel	284	4	1.70	2.30
Dante Pettis	314	4	1.88	2.12
Adam Thielen	1166	9	6.99	2.01
Marquise Goodwin	339	4	2.03	1.97
Larry Fitzgerald	508	5	3.05	1.95
Keelan Cole	391	1	2.34	-1.34
Quincy Enunwa	427	1	2.56	-1.56
Martavis Bryant	266	0	1.60	-1.60
D.J. Moore	609	2	3.65	-1.65
Mike Evans	1121	5	6.72	-1.72
Maurice Harris	291	0	1.75	-1.75
Danny Amendola	469	1	2.81	-1.81
Willie Snead	507	1	3.04	-2.04
Nelson Agholor	523	1	3.14	-2.14
Jarvis Landry	733	2	4.40	-2.40
JuJu Smith-Schuster	1104	4	6.62	-2.62
Brandin Cooks	1026	3	6.15	-3.15
Julio Jones	1323	3	7.93	-4.93

Brandin Cooks has found the end zone just three times on over 1,000 yards receiving. And you can't say it's just because he's a deep-ball player who's not utilized in the red zone. He has 13 red-zone targets this year, ranking 14th among wideouts, and his six targets from within the 10 have him tied in the top-15 as well. Hopefully he gets luckier for fantasy managers in the playoffs.