Fantasy Football: The Report, Week 15

NFL

JJ Zachariason Dec 12th, 2018

What is The Report? It's a comprehensive, statistical look at how teams and players are functioning offensively, with notes as to what it all means for the fantasy football future. Each week, The Report will feature charts on team play-calling tendencies, player usage close to the end zone, deep ball rates, and so much more. With added commentary, the purpose is to not only hand you information, but provide actionable information to crush both season-long and daily fantasy football.

Let's dig into Week 15's report.

Team Play-Calling

Team	Pass Att	Rush Att	Ratio	Neutral Ratio	RZ Plays	RZ Ratio	GL Plays	GL Ratio
ARI	394	291	1.35	1.16	70	1.26	14	1.00
ATL	510	273	1.87	1.96	106	1.72	32	1.46
BAL	487	415	1.17	1.14	136	0.86	29	0.61
BUF	406	380	1.07	1.04	97	0.70	19	0.73
CAR	446	331	1.35	1.41	125	0.89	40	0.67
CHI	429	374	1.15	1.22	116	1.42	31	1.07
CIN	467	276	1.69	1.66	95	1.64	28	1.15
CLE	463	341	1.36	1.36	90	1.05	30	0.50
DAL	419	371	1.13	1.28	121	1.12	32	0.78
DEN	455	324	1.40	1.49	104	1.31	28	1.15
DET	469	317	1.48	1.53	120	1.31	21	0.62
GB	503	281	1.79	1.80	96	1.91	18	2.00
HOU	403	403	1.00	1.11	131	1.47	40	1.67
IND	535	317	1.69	1.84	137	1.69	38	1.71
JAX	467	342	1.37	1.12	99	1.15	25	0.56
KC	482	324	1.49	1.76	149	1.66	42	0.75
LAC	413	329	1.26	1.36	113	1.22	24	1.00
LAR	461	358	1.29	1.48	168	1.00	34	0.55
MIA	377	308	1.22	1.20	68	1.00	8	3.00
MIN	524	274	1.91	1.68	101	2.06	24	1.67
NE	480	382	1.26	1.44	156	1.00	47	0.62
NO	422	393	1.07	1.33	182	0.96	60	0.71
NYG	465	284	1.64	1.52	132	1.49	36	1.12
NYJ	423	335	1.26	1.24	86	1.10	17	0.70
OAK	460	312	1.47	1.35	124	1.07	31	0.63
PHI	484	312	1.55	1.58	137	1.11	27	0.93
PIT	560	282	1.99	1.99	121	1.69	38	0.73
SEA	346	422	0.82	0.82	118	1.00	25	0.79
SF	432	360	1.20	1.20	130	1.03	34	0.79
TB	517	324	1.60	1.47	137	1.40	33	1.06
TEN	362	366	0.99	1.14	119	0.92	31	0.48
WAS	433	335	1.29	1.42	97	0.94	21	0.40

After a crazy Thursday night performance from Derrick Henry, the Titans now have a pass-to-rush attempt ratio of 0.99, joining the Seahawks as the only team with a rate lower than 1.00. But they haven't been the most run-heavy teams of late. No, no. That's the Ravens, who've seen their overall season-long ratio drop from 1.69 (nice) to 1.17 since Lamar Jackson took over.

Miami continues to trail the rest of the league by a wide margin in goal-line plays run. They've only run eight plays within their opponent's five-yard line, which is six fewer than any other team. And it's also 52 (!!!) plays fewer than the league-leading New Orleans Saints. It's honestly amazing that Kenyan Drake has four rushing touchdowns this season.

The Dolphins and Cardinals are currently pacing towards 887 and 886 total plays run offensively this year (this includes sacks, not just attempts). No team has run fewer than 890 plays in a season since the 2005 San Francisco 49ers. And fun fact: the offensive coordinator of that 49ers team was Mike McCarthy.

The Steelers continue to be the most pass-heavy team in football, throwing it nearly two times for every rush. Their opponent this week, New England, hasn't been nearly as pass-happy, but in neutral game scripts, they rank in the top-half of the league in pass-to-rush ratio. Both teams also play at a top-11 pace (seconds per play) in the league. In other words, expect there to be scoring in the Steel City this weekend, as long as Ben Roethlisberger is suited up.

Schedule-Adjusted Net Expected Points

To learn more about numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) metric, check out the glossary. (Note: Negative figures for defense are good.)

Team	Adj NEP	Adj Pass NEP	Adj Rush NEP	Adj D NEP	Adj D Pass NEP	Adj D Rush NEP
ARI	-100.67	-72.41	-21.85	50.72	37.72	21.90
ATL	108.58	111.22	-14.83	161.13	110.23	49.90
BAL	59.08	25.83	18.50	-17.55	-9.24	-14.99
BUF	-48.46	-72.44	21.42	28.26	17.47	0.50
CAR	106.24	56.89	51.08	118.55	102.26	17.10
CHI	81.49	40.01	20.89	-39.83	-5.01	-30.90
CIN	53.18	50.35	-3.49	106.93	72.99	39.99
CLE	1.30	-6.68	4.97	-2.76	-2.83	15.12
DAL	46.62	26.71	30.91	29.39	47.16	-26.61
DEN	72.87	48.14	33.26	29.80	32.54	11.19
DET	54.22	41.33	8.14	123.31	101.77	21.59
GB	109.55	75.85	42.32	113.25	79.70	32.42
HOU	94.15	79.68	13.28	43.71	56.37	-23.69
IND	119.32	104.57	12.76	94.17	84.26	0.50
JAX	-17.36	-0.96	-2.28	45.40	15.54	18.03
KC	236.80	201.83	29.70	124.50	59.93	47.22
LAC	180.06	126.68	56.41	40.82	16.88	30.20
LAR	167.31	148.37	27.39	47.39	27.12	16.41
MIA	38.71	27.82	9.55	146.96	101.16	27.96
MIN	29.09	64.61	-29.93	6.12	14.40	-10.26
NE	178.56	140.25	28.63	78.20	61.60	24.56
NO	203.06	161.23	24.13	68.84	51.03	1.28
NYG	59.50	48.46	15.67	85.11	64.54	23.51
NYJ	-43.78	-33.42	5.12	85.27	61.73	32.02
OAK	34.06	61.07	-9.52	142.91	111.18	46.26
PHI	73.00	58.20	7.42	84.13	71.02	20.61
PIT	139.84	125.23	12.49	64.91	52.47	9.04
SEA	124.45	79.59	49.84	61.25	46.97	-4.14
SF	21.21	20.82	-10.92	112.87	89.85	9.34
TB	97.63	97.75	-3.08	116.03	93.71	25.24
TEN	59.51	43.16	21.42	72.89	65.74	21.34
WAS	-3.09	-25.02	31.19	73.94	46.96	23.35

Baltimore continues to own the league's best secondary, but after a dominating performance on Sunday night, Chicago's not far behind. This makes two semi-reliable fantasy quarterbacks not-so-easy-starts this week with Jameis Winston traveling to Baltimore and Aaron Rodgers to Chicago.

Ben Roethlisberger missed a chunk of Week 14's game against Oakland, and the Raiders faced backup Joshua Dobbs as a result. Even still, when adjusted for strength of opponent, Oakland has numberFire's worst-ranked secondary. But one team that's coming for that crown is Carolina. They're ranked third-worst, and they'll face the Saints on Monday night. Maybe this is a "get right" type of game for Drew Brees?

There are a few teams separating themselves in the rush defense category: Chicago, Dallas, and Houston. Unsurprisingly, those three squads are also pretty good at stopping opposing running backs in fantasy football. If you were wondering if they were legit or not, though, wonder no more.

Team Pass Defense Splits

The chart below displays the raw number of yards and the percentage of yards allowed by pass defense to wide receivers, tight ends, and running backs.

Amari Cooper has been fantasy football's top receiver since joining Dallas, and those rostering Cooper in Week 14 specifically are probably feeling pretty good right now. But there's some reason to be nervous about his matchup this week against Indianapolis. We don't think of the Colts as tough against wide receivers, but they've allowed the sixth-fewest fantasy points to the position this year,and just 50.24% of their passing yards allowed have gone to wideouts. That's easily the lowest rate in the league. Cooper should be in your lineup this week, but it seems logical to temper expectations a bit.

Ian Thomas stepped up in big way for Greg Olsen on Sunday, hauling in 9 of 11 targets for 77 yards. He ran the third-most routes at tight end across the league, per Pro Football Focus. His matchup against the Saints this week is an interesting one. Yes, New Orleans just allowed a multi-score game to Cameron Brate, but Brate also had just 12 yards receiving. New Orleans has given up a lot of receiving yards to wideouts this year, but they've been good at limiting tight ends -- only about 12% of the receiving yards they've allowed have gone to tight ends, the lowest rate in the league. Thomas is a fine streamer, but the matchup could be a lot better.

Speaking of Brate, he's someone you can look to use again here in Week 15. Baltimore is great at stopping opposing wideouts, but they've allowed the second-highest rate of receiving yards to tight ends in football. It's not a great matchup for the Bucs' passing attack, but Brate's someone you can still use.

Kenny Stills is coming off of back to back strong outings, but you shouldn't be playing him this week against Minnesota. The Vikings have given up the fourth-fewest yards to wideouts this year and, on the season, only four wide receivers have ranked better than 20th in weekly PPR scoring against them. One of those players is Davante Adams, who did it twice, and the other three are all on the Rams. That's it. Those are the only instances where a player has hit 15-plus PPR points. Stills is a very risky play.

Pittsburgh has seen just 10.6% of their receiving yards allowed go to running backs. That's the lowest rate in the league. They're also first in Success Rate (percentage of positive expected point plays) allowed to running backs through the air. And that doesn't bode well for the pass-catching James White, who's finished with fewer than nine PPR points in three of his last four games. If there's one thing that makes him a viable RB2, it's that this game could be high-scoring. But this matchup isn't that attractive -- it shapes up to be much more of a Julian Edelman game given how the Steelers have performed against slot receivers.

Team Directional Rushing

All numbers below reflect yards per play.

The Chiefs now rank dead last in rush defense on a per-rush basis according to numberFire's expected points model, and no team has allowed a higher Success Rate to running backs. That means you've got to really keep an eye on the Chargers' running back situation this week, since it's a short week and both Austin Ekeler and Melvin Gordon are banged up. It could create a huge opportunity for Justin Jackson.

Doug Martin makes for an interesting play in Week 15 as well. Cincinnati is numberFire's second-least efficient rush defense, and they've allowed more points to the position than any other squad in the NFL. Martin has double-digit carries in seven straight games, and he's dominated goal-line looks for Oakland since Marshawn Lynch's injury -- only Christian McCaffrey has more attempts from within the opponent's five-yard line since Week 8.

Hypothetically, this is the perfect spot for David Johnson. Atlanta owns a bottom-five rush defense, and they've been notoriously bad at allowing receiving yards to running backs. But, unfortunately, it may not matter given Arizona's offensive deficiencies. Despite an average of 19.3 carries and 4.5 targets per game over his last four contests, Johnson has ranked in the top-20 in weekly running back scoring (PPR) just once while maintaining a points per game rate of 12.2. You can play him, but it's tough to expect a lot from him.

Running Back Usage

Player	Att	Rush %	Targets	Target %	Snap %	Last Wk Rate	RZ Att	RZ Targets	GL Att
Todd Gurley	244	68.16%	68	14.75%	86.3%	98.4%	62	16	20
Saquon Barkley	209	73.59%	96	20.65%	81.3%	48.4%	39	13	14
Christian McCaffrey	179	54.08%	99	22.20%	97.5%	100%	39	13	14
Alvin Kamara	173	44.02%	90	21.33%	66.3%	64.1%	44	24	14
Ezekiel Elliott	268	72.24%	81	19.33%	89%	86.9%	35	15	9
James Conner	201	71.28%	68	12.14%	75.7%	N/A	34	7	17
Melvin Gordon	153	46.50%	60	14.53%	59.7%	N/A	20	13	3
James White	80	20.94%	107	22.29%	56.7%	40.2%	18	18	6
Kareem Hunt	181	55.86%	35	7.26%	64.2%	N/A	27	9	11
Phillip Lindsay	168	51.85%	39	8.57%	46%	64.9%	22	5	7
Tarik Cohen	83	22.19%	81	18.88%	45.9%	42.3%	12	11	1
David Johnson	220	75.60%	61	15.48%	82.5%	88.6%	24	8	7
Joe Mixon	180	65.22%	48	10.28%	63.1%	70.1%	23	6	9
Kenyan Drake	102	33.12%	60	15.92%	57.4%	50%	12	6	1
T.J. Yeldon	101	29.53%	75	16.06%	56%	18.3%	12	5	2
Aaron Jones	129	45.91%	35	6.96%	51%	64.6%	18	3	4
Nick Chubb	144	42.23%	22	4.75%	32.8%	63.5%	19	4	8
Adrian Peterson	202	60.30%	21	4.85%	46.6%	30.6%	27	2	8
Lamar Miller	190	47.15%	33	8.19%	60.5%	70.8%	27	2	7
Austin Ekeler	98	29.79%	52	12.59%	41.6%	68.4%	15	5	4
Tevin Coleman	138	50.55%	41	8.04%	56.6%	46.5%	15	9	6
Matt Breida	132	36.67%	25	5.79%	35.5%	N/A	21	4	6
Derrick Henry	145	39.62%	15	4.14%	36.1%	40%	28	1	10
Dion Lewis	145	39.62%	56	15.47%	65.4%	63.3%	22	8	5
Isaiah Crowell	143	42.69%	28	6.62%	41.1%	9.3%	16	1	3
Kerryon Johnson	118	37.22%	39	8.32%	39.8%	N/A	17	6	2
Chris Carson	179	42.42%	17	4.91%	43.1%	53%	26	3	9
Nyheim Hines	76	23.97%	65	12.15%	47.2%	41.8%	19	7	2
Jalen Richard	44	14.10%	68	14.78%	40%	49.3%	7	4	1
Jordan Howard	197	52.67%	21	4.90%	57.7%	54.9%	25	3	11
Marlon Mack	131	41.32%	19	3.55%	50.2%	59.7%	21	2	8
Peyton Barber	183	56.48%	23	4.45%	54.3%	45.7%	29	5	11
Mark Ingram	110	27.99%	21	4.98%	45.9%	45.3%	21	1	12
Latavius Murray	114	41.61%	24	4.58%	48%	13.8%	14	2	4
Sony Michel	164	42.93%	11	2.29%	29.9%	41.5%	36	1	12
LeSean McCoy	145	38.16%	40	9.85%	53.3%	11.8%	19	1	4
Alex Collins	114	27.47%	21	4.31%	37.8%	N/A	21	5	6
Duke Johnson	30	8.80%	47	10.15%	40.6%	34.6%	3	6	0
Mike Davis	93	22.04%	30	8.67%	37.6%	27.3%	17	1	3
Theo Riddick	25	7.89%	66	14.07%	41.8%	41.7%	7	10	0
Frank Gore	151	49.03%	16	4.24%	42.6%	50%	13	3	1
Dalvin Cook	87	31.75%	39	7.44%	58.6%	84.5%	10	2	2
Leonard Fournette	104	30.41%	17	3.64%	41.8%	77.5%	19	2	10
Javorius Allen	41	9.88%	43	8.83%	31.6%	N/A	11	6	6
Ito Smith	81	29.67%	29	5.69%	32.4%	45.1%	18	2	4
Doug Martin	121	38.78%	19	4.13%	30.1%	49.3%	25	1	11
Giovani Bernard	47	17.03%	39	8.35%	41.8%	37.3%	7	1	3
Alfred Blue	134	33.25%	17	4.22%	40.8%	30.6%	13	2	4
Corey Clement	68	21.79%	25	5.17%	29.9%	7.7%	16	2	1
LeGarrette Blount	125	39.43%	10	2.13%	26.5%	31.7%	23	0	10
Wendell Smallwood	64	20.51%	25	5.17%	29.8%	7.7%	11	5	1
Royce Freeman	102	31.48%	8	1.76%	25.8%	12.2%	16	0	3
Spencer Ware	51	15.74%	23	4.77%	28.3%	47.7%	12	2	5
Chris Thompson	32	9.55%	44	10.16%	29.4%	40.3%	3	4	2
Rashaad Penny	81	19.19%	12	3.47%	20.7%	21.2%	9	1	1
Devontae Booker	26	8.02%	36	7.91%	28.3%	23%	2	4	0
Ty Montgomery	39	9.40%	36	7.39%	27.5%	26.8%	6	3	1
Chris Ivory	101	26.58%	20	4.93%	31%	35.5%	9	0	2

Ito Smith saw his snap rate jump to 45.1% in Week 14, marking the second week in a row where he's hit a 45% snap share. He's now seen more attempts than Tevin Coleman over the past two weeks. We could be seeing a changing of the guard in Atlanta.

Dalvin Cook has now played five games since returning from injury. In his first four, he saw 55.9% of Minnesota's running back attempts. On Monday night, that number jumped to 81.3%. He's got a great matchup this week against a beatable Miami rush defense and, given his usage, he needs to be in your lineup.

Washington is a mess offensively, and it's hurting Adrian Peterson. Without that 90-yard run two weeks ago, we're looking at a starting back who (hypothetically) would have ranked outside the top-40 in weekly running back scoring across three consecutive weeks. As I mentioned in this week's 15 Transactions column, Peterson has averaged about 35 rushing yards in losses this year versus roughly 105 in wins. Considering Washington is heading in the wrong direction, he can safely be dropped.

Derrick Henry's huge night came on 17 carries, but he still was on the field for just 40% of Tennessee's snaps. It's hard to believe given the performance, but Dion Lewis played 14 more snaps than Henry did on Thursday night. Henry does have flex appeal this week against a Giants defense that easily ranks in the bottom half of the league against the run since losing Damon Harrison, but don't get carried away expectation-wise.

Wide Receiver Usage

Player	Targets	Target %	Snap %	Last Wk Rate	RZ Targets	< 10 Targets	GL Targets
Davante Adams	138	27.44%	93.4%	86.2%	26	7	2
Adam Thielen	143	27.29%	97%	96.6%	19	8	6
Tyreek Hill	114	23.65%	87.2%	75.6%	14	6	4
Michael Thomas	118	27.96%	88.2%	90.6%	24	12	7
Antonio Brown	142	25.36%	95.2%	98.3%	19	6	2
Julio Jones	144	28.24%	81.9%	88.7%	11	5	3
JuJu Smith-Schuster	131	23.39%	84.4%	86.7%	27	11	8
DeAndre Hopkins	124	30.77%	99.3%	100%	21	15	9
Keenan Allen	122	29.54%	84.2%	94.7%	15	7	4
Odell Beckham	124	26.67%	86.5%	N/A	20	8	5
Mike Evans	111	21.47%	84.1%	87.1%	10	4	2
Stefon Diggs	127	24.24%	82.2%	86.2%	13	6	4
Robert Woods	111	24.08%	96.7%	100%	10	8	3
Tyler Boyd	103	22.06%	89.4%	95.5%	8	2	1
Brandin Cooks	97	21.04%	90.6%	98.4%	14	6	2
Emmanuel Sanders	98	21.54%	84.3%	N/A	11	5	3
T.Y. Hilton	98	18.32%	78.4%	80.6%	14	9	7
Amari Cooper	84	N/A	79.2%	90.9%	12	7	2
Tyler Lockett	62	17.92%	84.2%	84.8%	6	3	0
Jarvis Landry	124	26.78%	87.7%	80.8%	16	5	3
Kenny Golladay	96	20.47%	91.2%	83.3%	13	6	3
Calvin Ridley	75	14.71%	60.6%	62%	7	3	2
Golden Tate	99	20.45%	67.5%	38.5%	10	7	2
Corey Davis	94	25.97%	88.9%	83.3%	15	9	5
Adam Humphries	81	15.67%	69.1%	81.4%	11	5	3
Julian Edelman	81	16.88%	88.3%	91.5%	17	10	5
Dede Westbrook	81	17.34%	76.2%	91.5%	11	5	0
A.J. Green	77	16.49%	60.9%	N/A	14	6	5
Chris Godwin	77	14.89%	61%	85.7%	13	9	3
Sterling Shepard	82	17.63%	90.5%	67.2%	18	7	6
DeSean Jackson	70	13.54%	45.8%	N/A	5	1	0
Larry Fitzgerald	86	21.83%	91.3%	95.7%	12	6	5
Demaryius Thomas	76	18.86%	77.4%	94.4%	11	4	3
D.J. Moore	64	14.35%	63.4%	90.5%	5	2	1
Josh Gordon	68	14.17%	70.4%	86.6%	8	4	2
John Brown	85	17.45%	65.6%	70.4%	13	7	2
Cooper Kupp	56	12.15%	72%	N/A	12	7	0
Alshon Jeffery	74	15.29%	81.6%	98.1%	12	5	3
Mohamed Sanu	70	13.73%	77.9%	80.3%	4	2	2
Allen Robinson	79	18.41%	76.4%	85.9%	11	5	2
Taylor Gabriel	83	19.35%	79.8%	80.3%	8	5	3
Michael Crabtree	93	19.10%	67.9%	71.8%	9	4	1
Mike Williams	48	11.62%	61.1%	50.9%	9	5	1
Christian Kirk	68	17.26%	79.1%	N/A	5	2	0
Kenny Stills	52	13.79%	79.1%	83.3%	4	3	1
Willie Snead	87	17.86%	67.5%	71.8%	5	0	0
Nelson Agholor	82	16.94%	89.6%	94.2%	9	4	2
Devin Funchess	74	16.59%	70.5%	39.2%	11	7	4
Donte Moncrief	80	17.13%	77.9%	73.2%	7	5	3
Tyrell Williams	47	11.38%	74.8%	84.2%	4	1	1
Zay Jones	78	19.21%	87.1%	90.8%	14	4	2
Marvin Jones	62	13.22%	72.8%	N/A	11	6	1
Sammy Watkins	55	11.41%	53%	N/A	10	4	0
Jordy Nelson	58	12.61%	79.3%	94%	7	4	1
Cole Beasley	68	16.23%	65.3%	65.7%	9	4	2
Danny Amendola	63	16.71%	73.7%	47.9%	1	1	0
Anthony Miller	51	11.89%	63.1%	52.1%	10	5	2
Curtis Samuel	44	9.87%	41.7%	93.2%	5	2	1
Will Fuller	45	11.17%	77%	N/A	5	3	2
Courtland Sutton	65	14.29%	72%	68.9%	7	4	3

Without Emmanuel Sanders, Courtland Sutton didn't do a whole lot this past week, but part of that was because of a thigh injury. The player who emerged in that Denver offense was DaeSean Hamilton, who played two-thirds of his snap from the slot, a role Sanders had played throughout the season. Hamilton ended Sunday with nine targets and seven catches. That's also an area of the field that Case Keenum seems to enjoy targeting -- last season, Keenum's Vikings ranked eighth in slot yards.

Curtis Samuel is being used more and more in the Carolina offense, having seen 19 targets over the past two weeks. He's now played three straight games with a snap share north of 83%. As this has happened, Devin Funchess has watched his share drop dramatically, as he's become just a part-time player.

The Bears only threw Anthony Miller onto the field for 52.1% of their snaps on Monday night, which was his second-lowest snap share of his season. Earlier in the season, it looked like he was emerging as a potential fantasy starter, but he's seen just three targets over the last two weeks. He's not someone you can trust, despite a plus matchup this week.

If you played Chris Godwin last week, you got the process right. He saw 10 targets -- you'll always take 10 targets from a fantasy wideout. The problem is that many of those looks weren't catchable, and he finished the day with just one reception. Nevertheless, without DeSean Jackson in the lineup over the last two years, Godwin is averaging 8.5 targets per game. With him, that number drops to just 4.1. Considering D-Jax is having trouble gripping a football right now, Godwin remains someone who should see volume in the Bucs passing attack. His matchup this week is tough, though, so you may not be able to start him.

Tight End Usage

Player	Targets	Target %	Snap %	Last Wk Rate	RZ Targets	< 10 Targets	GL Targets
Travis Kelce	123	25.52%	95.6%	98.8%	22	10	5
Zach Ertz	129	26.65%	93.1%	84.6%	20	8	3
George Kittle	102	23.61%	86%	91.7%	12	7	4
Eric Ebron	96	17.94%	58.6%	67.2%	20	5	3
Jared Cook	88	19.13%	74.5%	85.1%	14	10	3
Austin Hooper	79	15.49%	80.1%	77.5%	12	9	4
Rob Gronkowski	62	12.92%	77.9%	95.1%	7	2	0
O.J. Howard	48	9.28%	60.8%	N/A	7	4	2
Jordan Reed	84	19.40%	60.5%	11.3%	7	5	1
Trey Burton	59	13.75%	81.2%	80.3%	11	7	3
Jimmy Graham	77	15.31%	75%	72.3%	8	4	4
David Njoku	73	15.77%	80.3%	82.7%	4	3	1
Vance McDonald	60	10.71%	56.4%	63.3%	6	2	1
Kyle Rudolph	64	12.21%	88.8%	98.3%	12	7	4
C.J. Uzomah	53	11.35%	83.6%	86.6%	4	3	2
Christopher Herndon	42	9.93%	50.9%	75.9%	4	0	0
Jesse James	37	6.61%	55.1%	51.7%	5	2	1
Cameron Brate	40	7.74%	43.2%	65.7%	11	4	3
Greg Olsen	38	8.52%	61.5%	N/A	6	3	3
Ben Watson	39	9.24%	49%	43.8%	9	6	4
Mark Andrews	39	8.01%	34.7%	35.2%	6	3	1
Dallas Goedert	36	7.44%	45%	59.6%	6	2	2
Evan Engram	38	8.17%	52.2%	51.6%	5	1	1
Vernon Davis	33	7.62%	49.3%	79%	1	0	0
Jeff Heuerman	48	10.55%	76.9%	N/A	12	7	2
Ricky Seals-Jones	61	15.48%	63%	62.9%	3	2	1
Gerald Everett	37	8.03%	28.3%	57.1%	9	6	1
Jonnu Smith	31	8.56%	75.2%	28.3%	5	5	2
Antonio Gates	34	8.23%	33.5%	40.4%	8	7	4
Jordan Thomas	24	5.96%	46.5%	45.8%	7	4	1

Gerald Everett played more snaps than Tyler Higbee in Week 14, and that was the first time that's happened in 2018. Everett's 57.1% snap share was easily his highest of the season -- it makes sense that he also saw a season-high seven targets. That's something to keep an eye on this week, because he could make for a decent streamer during championship week.

If you had told me at the beginning of the season that David Njoku would be seventh in target share at tight end through 14 weeks, I'd almost expect him to be a top-five tight end. But for whatever reason, Njoku hasn't been all that heavily involved in the red zone this year -- among the top-30 tight ends, only two have fewer red-zone targets.

One of my favorite streamers this week is Blake Jarwin, who's not even listed in the tight end usage report. He ran 19 more routes than any other Dallas tight end this past Sunday, and he saw more than two targets (he had seven) for the first time all season. If that workload continues against Indy, he'll be useful -- as I mentioned above, the Colts have been strong against wide receivers, but are surrendering a large percentage of receiving yards to tight ends and running backs.

Deep Ball Passing

Player	15+ Yd Att	15+ Yd Att %	15+ Comp %	15+ % of Tot Yds	15+ Yd TD %
Ben Roethlisberger	87	15.93%	39.08%	27.84%	39.29%
Andrew Luck	82	15.47%	46.34%	28.60%	20.59%
Kirk Cousins	73	13.93%	42.47%	23.28%	37.50%
Matt Ryan	95	18.92%	43.16%	28.66%	21.43%
Aaron Rodgers	104	21.01%	43.27%	38.65%	34.78%
Patrick Mahomes	105	21.78%	47.62%	34.56%	23.26%
Tom Brady	80	16.77%	43.75%	26.57%	30.43%
Matthew Stafford	63	13.64%	46.03%	26.39%	27.78%
Jared Goff	91	19.87%	48.35%	31.80%	25.93%
Eli Manning	81	17.69%	46.91%	30.66%	16.67%
Derek Carr	61	13.38%	45.90%	23.79%	22.22%
Case Keenum	65	14.35%	43.08%	28.54%	33.33%
Cam Newton	74	16.74%	39.19%	20.37%	20.83%
Dak Prescott	59	14.11%	40.68%	25.75%	35.29%
Drew Brees	68	16.39%	58.82%	32.43%	29.03%
Philip Rivers	75	18.34%	56.00%	33.10%	31.03%
Deshaun Watson	67	16.67%	47.76%	27.11%	22.73%
Carson Wentz	64	15.96%	39.06%	25.28%	14.29%
Joe Flacco	70	18.47%	34.29%	25.72%	16.67%
Baker Mayfield	91	24.20%	47.25%	39.76%	31.58%
Blake Bortles	56	15.18%	37.50%	24.49%	30.77%
Andy Dalton	62	16.99%	43.55%	27.32%	28.57%
Mitchell Trubisky	83	23.65%	34.94%	35.32%	28.57%
Russell Wilson	70	20.23%	47.14%	37.20%	44.83%
Alex Smith	61	18.60%	32.79%	25.32%	20.00%
Josh Rosen	61	19.43%	40.98%	33.82%	40.00%
Sam Darnold	60	19.17%	40.00%	32.41%	41.67%
Marcus Mariota	53	17.79%	47.17%	28.71%	18.18%
Jameis Winston	59	21.85%	40.68%	27.11%	21.43%
Ryan Fitzpatrick	65	26.42%	53.85%	44.13%	35.29%
Josh Allen	64	28.19%	29.69%	39.19%	60.00%
Ryan Tannehill	33	16.75%	33.33%	24.52%	43.75%
Nick Mullens	17	9.77%	58.82%	18.86%	11.11%
Lamar Jackson	14	13.86%	35.71%	23.00%	25.00%
Jeff Driskel	16	16.00%	37.50%	21.40%	33.33%
Cody Kessler	12	12.37%	33.33%	17.58%	0.00%

Prior to Freddie Kitchens taking over as Cleveland's offensive coordinator, Baker Mayfield was throwing it 15-plus air yards on about 22% of his passes. Since, that number's jumped to 27.5%. Had he been throwing it deep that often all year long, he'd be ranked second in deep-ball rate behind only Josh Allen.

The Minnesota offensive line has been a mess, and that's part of the reason why Kirk Cousins ranks towards the bottom in deep-ball rate. He's tossed it 15 or more yards through the air on roughly 14% of his pass attempts this year, far lower than Keenum's 18.3% rate with the Vikings last season.

Running Back Touchdown Regression

Regression analysis doesn't always have to be so complicated. As you'd expect, there's a decent correlation between yards gained and touchdowns scored. The regression analysis in The Report looks at running back and wide receiver yards gained, shows how many touchdowns they've scored, and then finds how many touchdowns they should have scored based on trends from the last seven NFL seasons.

Player	Rush Yds	TD	Should Have	Difference	Rec Yds	TD	Should Have	Difference	Total Difference
Todd Gurley	1203	15	8.05	6.95	504	4	2.20	1.80	8.74
Alvin Kamara	793	11	5.31	5.69	591	4	2.59	1.41	7.11
Kareem Hunt	824	7	5.52	1.48	378	7	1.65	5.35	6.83
Melvin Gordon	802	9	5.37	3.63	453	4	1.98	2.02	5.65
James Conner	909	12	6.08	5.92	467	1	2.04	-1.04	4.87
Alex Collins	411	7	2.75	4.25	105	1	0.46	0.54	4.79
James White	342	4	2.29	1.71	674	6	2.95	3.05	4.76
Kenyan Drake	463	4	3.10	0.90	366	5	1.60	3.40	4.30
Nick Chubb	760	8	5.09	2.91	150	2	0.66	1.34	4.26
Derrick Henry	712	9	4.77	4.23	78	0	0.34	-0.34	3.89
James Develin	8	4	0.05	3.95	41	0	0.18	-0.18	3.77
Christian McCaffrey	926	7	6.20	0.80	701	6	3.07	2.93	3.74
Javorius Allen	110	3	0.74	2.26	196	2	0.86	1.14	3.41
Aaron Jones	720	8	4.82	3.18	206	1	0.90	0.10	3.28
Kapri Bibbs	101	3	0.68	2.32	102	1	0.45	0.55	2.88
Saquon Barkley	1124	9	7.52	1.48	629	4	2.75	1.25	2.73
Phillip Lindsay	967	9	6.47	2.53	210	1	0.92	0.08	2.61
LeGarrette Blount	365	5	2.44	2.56	72	0	0.31	-0.31	2.24
Tevin Coleman	559	2	3.74	-1.74	267	5	1.17	3.83	2.09
Leonard Fournette	350	4	2.34	1.66	139	1	0.61	0.39	2.05
Alfred Morris	317	1	2.12	-1.12	69	0	0.30	-0.30	-1.42
Dalvin Cook	367	0	2.46	-2.46	222	2	0.97	1.03	-1.43
Jordan Wilkins	318	1	2.13	-1.13	74	0	0.32	-0.32	-1.45
Jamaal Williams	310	1	2.07	-1.07	91	0	0.40	-0.40	-1.47
Marcus Murphy	215	0	1.44	-1.44	26	0	0.11	-0.11	-1.55
Alfred Blue	467	2	3.13	-1.13	107	0	0.47	-0.47	-1.59
Jeffery Wilson	184	0	1.23	-1.23	87	0	0.38	-0.38	-1.61
Ezekiel Elliott	1263	6	8.45	-2.45	502	3	2.20	0.80	-1.65
Jacquizz Rodgers	101	0	0.68	-0.68	246	0	1.08	-1.08	-1.75
Bilal Powell	343	0	2.30	-2.30	110	1	0.48	0.52	-1.78
Lamar Miller	909	4	6.08	-2.08	163	1	0.71	0.29	-1.80
Chris Ivory	340	1	2.28	-1.28	159	0	0.70	-0.70	-1.97
Gus Edwards	446	1	2.99	-1.99	7	0	0.03	-0.03	-2.02
LeSean McCoy	479	2	3.21	-1.21	210	0	0.92	-0.92	-2.12
Theo Riddick	102	0	0.68	-0.68	368	0	1.61	-1.61	-2.29
Dion Lewis	477	1	3.19	-2.19	348	1	1.52	-0.52	-2.71
Jalen Richard	238	0	1.59	-1.59	483	0	2.11	-2.11	-3.71
Frank Gore	708	0	4.74	-4.74	124	1	0.54	0.46	-4.28

We still haven't seen a rushing touchdown from Frank Gore despite 708 rushing yards. If he finishes the season without a rushing score, he'd become the first player to do so with 700 or more rushing yards since 2003.

Wide Receiver Touchdown Regression

Player	Rec Yds	TD	Should Have	Difference
Antonio Brown	1063	12	6.37	5.63
Davante Adams	1196	12	7.17	4.83
John Ross	200	6	1.20	4.80
Tyler Lockett	755	9	4.53	4.47
Jaron Brown	150	5	0.90	4.10
Calvin Ridley	657	8	3.94	4.06
Mike Williams	516	7	3.09	3.91
Anthony Miller	399	6	2.39	3.61
Tyreek Hill	1258	11	7.54	3.46
Chris Conley	261	5	1.57	3.43
Kenny Stills	504	6	3.02	2.98
Aldrick Robinson	187	4	1.12	2.88
Dante Pettis	363	5	2.18	2.82
Cooper Kupp	566	6	3.39	2.61
David Moore	413	5	2.48	2.52
DeAndre Hopkins	1151	9	6.90	2.10
Marvin Jones	508	5	3.05	1.95
Marquise Goodwin	359	4	2.15	1.85
AJ Green	694	6	4.16	1.84
Curtis Samuel	364	4	2.18	1.82
Tre'Quan Smith	371	4	2.22	1.78
Alshon Jeffery	542	5	3.25	1.75
Tyrell Williams	547	5	3.28	1.72
Taylor Gabriel	566	2	3.39	-1.39
JuJu Smith-Schuster	1234	6	7.40	-1.40
Michael Gallup	404	1	2.42	-1.42
Martavis Bryant	266	0	1.60	-1.60
Keelan Cole	446	1	2.67	-1.67
Quincy Enunwa	449	1	2.69	-1.69
Jarvis Landry	790	3	4.74	-1.74
Maurice Harris	291	0	1.75	-1.75
Danny Amendola	479	1	2.87	-1.87
D.J. Moore	676	2	4.05	-2.05
Mike Evans	1207	5	7.24	-2.24
Willie Snead	568	1	3.41	-2.41
Nelson Agholor	572	1	3.43	-2.43
Brandin Cooks	1048	3	6.28	-3.28
Julio Jones	1429	5	8.57	-3.57

Now that JuJu Smith-Schuster saw positive touchdown regression, we've got a couple of newcomers towards the bottom of this week's wide receiver list. Nelson Agholor has seen inconsistent usage of late, but he's scored just once despite nearly 600 yards receiving. And Willie Snead is in a similar boat. The problem is, that positive regression may not come given their current usage and, in Snead's case, quarterback situation.