Fantasy Football: The Report, Week 16

NFL

JJ Zachariason Dec 19th, 2018

What is The Report? It's a comprehensive, statistical look at how teams and players are functioning offensively, with notes as to what it all means for the fantasy football future. Each week, The Report will feature charts on team play-calling tendencies, player usage close to the end zone, deep ball rates, and so much more. With added commentary, the purpose is to not only hand you information, but provide actionable information to crush both season-long and daily fantasy football.

Let's dig into Week 16's report.

Team Play-Calling

Team	Pass Att	Rush Att	Ratio	+/-6 Ratio	RZ Plays	RZ Ratio	GL Plays	GL Ratio
ARI	430	313	1.37	1.13	80	1.22	16	0.78
ATL	546	300	1.82	1.96	119	1.70	36	1.57
BAL	510	465	1.10	1.07	152	0.85	31	0.72
BUF	432	417	1.04	0.98	102	0.65	21	0.62
CAR	476	354	1.34	1.42	127	0.92	40	0.67
CHI	457	403	1.13	1.23	125	1.36	31	1.07
CIN	500	317	1.58	1.66	113	1.46	34	1.00
CLE	494	369	1.34	1.33	97	1.02	31	0.55
DAL	458	393	1.17	1.27	126	1.14	34	0.79
DEN	503	344	1.46	1.60	110	1.20	31	1.07
DET	498	343	1.45	1.47	126	1.21	26	0.53
GB	545	300	1.82	1.81	105	1.92	18	2.00
HOU	431	420	1.03	1.18	139	1.48	40	1.67
IND	562	356	1.58	1.80	148	1.47	41	1.56
JAX	484	368	1.32	1.09	99	1.15	25	0.56
KC	516	341	1.51	1.77	163	1.55	49	0.69
LAC	451	353	1.28	1.35	127	1.27	28	1.00
LAR	516	376	1.37	1.49	181	1.10	37	0.54
MIA	401	328	1.22	1.22	72	1.12	8	3.00
MIN	545	314	1.74	1.63	109	1.87	24	1.67
NE	516	401	1.29	1.49	165	1.04	47	0.62
NO	457	425	1.08	1.30	192	0.94	61	0.69
NYG	509	300	1.70	1.52	137	1.54	39	1.29
NYJ	461	366	1.26	1.23	98	1.04	20	0.67
OAK	498	328	1.52	1.37	128	1.10	32	0.68
PHI	515	342	1.51	1.52	144	1.12	28	0.87
PIT	594	307	1.93	1.92	130	1.71	41	0.78
SEA	377	457	0.82	0.85	129	0.95	30	0.76
SF	461	386	1.19	1.20	134	1.00	34	0.79
TB	542	345	1.57	1.41	147	1.30	36	1.00
TEN	383	411	0.93	1.10	132	0.78	37	0.37
WAS	458	368	1.24	1.29	104	0.96	21	0.40

The Ravens keep running. In the chart, you can see that they've got an overall pass-to-rush attempt ratio of 1.10, which is one of the lower marks in the league. But since Lamar Jackson took over, their ratio has actually been 0.51. They've been running the ball twice as much as they've been throwing it. That's by far the most run-heavy approach in the league -- Seattle has a 0.82 pass-to-rush attempt rate, and they're the least pass-friendly team in football. All of this has essentially ruined the fantasy value for Baltimore pass-catchers.

Cody Kessler hasn't been the answer in Jacksonville. With Kessler under center over the team's last three games, the Jags have averaged fewer than 10 points per contest, and their yards per drive rate has dipped by over eight yards. That makes the Dolphins a very, very viable streamer this week.

The Falcons have passed the Steelers in pass-to-rush ratio in neutral game scripts, and we may see a pass-friendly approach this weekend at Carolina. Atlanta's down to Tevin Coleman as their only relevant, healthy back, and while the Panthers looked fine against the Saints on Thursday night, they've struggled against the pass this year.

Schedule-Adjusted Net Expected Points

To learn more about numberFire's Net Expected Points (NEP) metric, check out the glossary. (Note: Negative figures for defense are good.)

Team	Adj NEP	Adj Pass NEP	Adj Rush NEP	Adj D NEP	Adj D Pass NEP	Adj D Rush NEP
ARI	-124.21	-88.85	-26.69	60.82	36.25	36.34
ATL	129.97	122.94	-5.01	166.81	115.36	50.95
BAL	71.85	25.39	28.48	-25.35	-15.77	-13.46
BUF	-47.87	-74.82	18.88	33.97	23.28	1.12
CAR	101.01	55.94	51.67	105.84	90.30	16.20
CHI	82.43	50.71	13.22	-34.73	1.67	-30.94
CIN	50.97	41.99	0.41	103.16	76.06	34.97
CLE	4.05	-6.77	5.55	-5.87	2.14	8.98
DAL	48.10	24.16	36.40	38.68	50.55	-19.41
DEN	69.13	45.92	29.86	29.19	32.39	9.96
DET	58.12	42.82	8.56	143.68	110.87	22.56
GB	120.56	84.48	45.78	114.43	90.20	24.00
HOU	102.12	90.61	8.37	55.02	70.06	-27.87
IND	136.25	112.41	22.02	87.35	78.45	2.51
JAX	-31.04	-17.58	3.27	47.73	22.48	13.01
KC	255.12	213.34	34.12	134.45	60.43	52.88
LAC	181.23	129.92	57.17	41.71	22.73	30.84
LAR	183.04	155.52	31.34	51.32	26.07	20.36
MIA	28.86	12.49	18.04	161.28	100.74	47.50
MIN	34.13	56.23	-16.80	-5.28	-5.87	-2.68
NE	176.47	141.27	29.40	81.93	59.65	28.70
NO	202.63	158.69	25.26	56.32	44.94	-4.45
NYG	54.78	44.64	13.23	96.66	60.51	35.30
NYJ	-42.00	-27.35	2.44	87.59	66.76	27.37
OAK	15.48	48.70	-17.09	148.80	109.39	54.30
PHI	81.48	75.64	3.24	79.42	72.08	19.67
PIT	154.96	131.64	19.79	62.19	54.69	10.68
SEA	126.16	84.06	51.68	71.11	55.89	-5.82
SF	22.75	28.40	-16.28	118.34	97.36	10.52
TB	104.50	101.84	0.80	130.28	94.64	33.41
TEN	60.20	36.30	27.83	62.37	59.48	18.97
WAS	-2.55	-17.66	28.45	74.14	37.48	32.22

Not much has changed in the Net Expected Points chart week over week. The Falcons now own numberFire's worst-rated secondary, while Baltimore is pretty far in front of the pack. Meanwhile, Chicago and Houston have been strong against the run. That makes me nervous about starting any 49ers or Eagles back this week.

Team Pass Defense Splits

The chart below displays the raw number of yards and the percentage of yards allowed by pass defense to wide receivers, tight ends, and running backs.

The top quarterback streamer this week may be Nick Foles. Part of that is because ownership percentages continue to be very flat at the position, limiting our true streaming options, but Foles is also in a low-key good matchup. The Texans are average against quarterbacks in fantasy points against, but they've only faced one quarterback this season who ranks in the top-10 in points per game at the position. That's Andrew Luck, who scored 35.7 and 23.6 fantasy points against the Texans in his two outings.

Meanwhile, as noted above, Houston can stop the run well. That may force the Eagles to throw a bit more. And that's not necessarily a bad thing -- one matchup that Philly could exploit is at tight end, as 23.6% of the Texans' receiving yards allowed have gone to tight ends this year, the ninth-highest rate in the league.

I'm intrigued by Kenneth Dixon this week. While Gus Edwards has been out-touching him in the Ravens backfield, Dixon actually played more snaps than Edwards in Week 16. Dixon's snap rate has now risen from 21% two weeks ago all the way to 52% this past weekend. And he's a more capable pass-catcher, which could be big against the Chargers -- no team has allowed a higher percentage of receiving yards to running backs this year. We saw that in action last week versus Damien Williams.

Heading into last week, the Saints were first in the league in percentage of receiving yards allowed going to wide receivers. This week, that's changed. After getting torched by DeAndre Hopkins, the Jets have become arguably the best matchup for wide receivers, which is good news for those of you needing some Davante Adams help in your fantasy championship.

Evan Engram had a pretty big Week 15 with 8 catches on 12 targets, and his matchup this week is nice against Indy. The Colts have seen 28.8% of their receiving yards go to tight ends, which is the second-highest rate in the league. And no team has allowed more receiving yards to the position.

If you need a tight end streamer, Matt LaCosse could be it. The Raiders have allowed the second-most fantasy points to tight ends this year, and 28.9% of their passing yards allowed have gone to tight ends, marking the top rate in the league. LaCosse saw six targets in Week 15, and according to Pro Football Focus, he ran 32 routes, seventh-most at the position last week. The position is a dumpster fire, but the matchup is there for LaCosse.

Team Directional Rushing

All numbers below reflect yards per play.

According to numberFire's expected points model, no team has allowed a higher Success Rate (percentage of positive expected point plays) to running backs through the air than Cleveland. The Bengals are banged up offensively, but Joe Mixon continues to see a ton of work -- he's carried the ball 53 times over the last two weeks -- and he's got the receiving upside in this matchup to come through with a big performance.

On the other side of that matchup is Nick Chubb, who should have zero trouble this week running against the Bengals. Not only are the Browns favorites, which could generate a nice positive game script, but Cincy's given up the second-highest Success Rate to opposing backs this year on the ground. And only two teams -- Kansas City and Oakland -- have been less efficient at stopping the run on a per-rush basis.

You've got to love Marlon Mack's spot this week. Prior to trading Damon Harrison, the Giants were allowing 3.9 yards per carry to opposing running backs. Since, that number's jumped to 4.5, and the G-Men have surrendered five top-10 running back performances in seven games played. As home favorites, the Colts should see a positive script, benefiting Mack tremendously.

Running Back Usage

Player	Att	Rush %	Targets	Target %	Snap %	Last Wk Rate	RZ Att	RZ Targets	GL Att
Todd Gurley	256	68.09%	81	15.70%	86%	82.9%	64	19	22
Christian McCaffrey	194	54.80%	110	23.11%	97.7%	100%	39	14	14
Saquon Barkley	223	74.33%	106	20.83%	82.6%	100%	40	14	14
Alvin Kamara	187	44.00%	99	21.66%	66.1%	63.5%	48	25	14
Ezekiel Elliott	286	72.77%	89	19.43%	88.9%	88.4%	37	16	10
James Conner	201	65.47%	68	11.45%	70.7%	N/A	34	7	17
Melvin Gordon	153	43.34%	60	13.30%	54.3%	N/A	20	13	3
James White	82	20.45%	114	22.09%	55.7%	40.3%	18	20	6
Kareem Hunt	181	53.08%	35	6.78%	64.2%	N/A	27	9	11
Joe Mixon	207	65.30%	52	10.40%	63.3%	65%	31	8	13
David Johnson	231	73.80%	67	15.58%	79.7%	49.3%	26	9	9
Tarik Cohen	88	21.84%	87	19.04%	47%	63.3%	12	14	1
Phillip Lindsay	182	52.91%	45	8.95%	46.6%	53.4%	25	5	7
Kenyan Drake	103	31.40%	63	15.71%	57.1%	52.8%	12	7	1
Nick Chubb	164	44.44%	23	4.66%	34.6%	59.7%	22	4	8
Tevin Coleman	149	49.67%	42	7.69%	56.1%	50.7%	16	10	6
Adrian Peterson	221	60.05%	24	5.24%	47.2%	54.4%	29	2	8
Derrick Henry	178	43.31%	16	4.18%	38.8%	70%	39	1	15
T.J. Yeldon	104	28.26%	78	16.12%	54.8%	34.6%	12	5	2
Aaron Jones	133	44.33%	35	6.42%	47.5%	10.3%	18	3	4
Lamar Miller	193	45.95%	33	7.66%	58.3%	20.8%	29	2	7
Matt Breida	149	38.60%	30	6.51%	37.9%	72.6%	23	4	6
Chris Carson	201	43.98%	23	6.10%	43.9%	52%	32	3	12
Austin Ekeler	98	27.76%	52	11.53%	38.1%	N/A	15	5	4
Dion Lewis	152	36.98%	59	15.40%	62.8%	32.9%	22	8	5
Marlon Mack	158	44.38%	20	3.56%	51.4%	61.1%	28	2	10
Isaiah Crowell	143	39.07%	28	6.07%	41.1%	N/A	16	1	3
Nyheim Hines	82	23.03%	71	12.63%	46.7%	40.3%	21	7	2
Jordan Howard	216	53.60%	22	4.81%	57.6%	56.7%	30	3	11
Kerryon Johnson	118	34.40%	39	7.83%	37.4%	N/A	17	6	2
Jalen Richard	48	14.63%	74	14.86%	40.7%	50.8%	7	4	1
Peyton Barber	202	58.55%	25	4.61%	54.8%	64%	35	5	13
Dalvin Cook	106	33.76%	41	7.52%	58.8%	60.9%	11	2	2
Latavius Murray	129	41.08%	24	4.40%	47.4%	39.1%	18	2	4
Mark Ingram	122	28.71%	23	5.03%	45.8%	44.6%	22	1	12
Mike Davis	98	21.44%	38	10.08%	38.1%	44%	17	1	3
Sony Michel	177	44.14%	11	2.13%	30.4%	37.1%	38	1	12
Duke Johnson	34	9.21%	52	10.53%	40.5%	38.8%	4	6	0
LeSean McCoy	145	34.77%	40	9.26%	49.1%	0%	19	1	4
Theo Riddick	33	9.62%	69	13.86%	41.9%	43.9%	7	10	0
Alex Collins	114	24.52%	21	4.12%	37.8%	N/A	21	5	6
Leonard Fournette	115	31.25%	21	4.34%	42.8%	51.9%	19	2	10
Frank Gore	156	47.56%	16	3.99%	40.7%	13.2%	13	3	1
Wendell Smallwood	74	21.64%	27	5.24%	29.9%	31.2%	13	5	2
Ito Smith	90	30.00%	32	5.86%	33.2%	43.3%	21	4	4
Javorius Allen	41	8.82%	43	8.43%	29.6%	3.9%	11	6	6
Doug Martin	130	39.63%	20	4.02%	31.1%	45.8%	26	2	11
Giovani Bernard	53	16.72%	41	8.20%	41.3%	37.5%	8	1	3
Alfred Blue	143	34.05%	19	4.41%	42.9%	77.4%	14	3	4
Jamaal Williams	98	32.67%	29	5.32%	42.9%	86.8%	9	3	1
Corey Clement	68	19.88%	25	4.85%	29.9%	N/A	16	2	1
Royce Freeman	106	30.81%	9	1.79%	25.8%	24.7%	17	0	4
LeGarrette Blount	132	38.48%	11	2.21%	26.1%	19.3%	25	0	12
Chris Thompson	37	10.05%	46	10.04%	30.5%	42.6%	3	4	2
Marshawn Lynch	90	27.44%	20	4.02%	50.4%	N/A	16	5	3
Spencer Ware	51	14.96%	23	4.46%	26.5%	N/A	12	2	5
Devontae Booker	26	7.56%	39	7.75%	27.7%	20.5%	2	5	0
Gus Edwards	111	23.87%	1	0.20%	35.1%	42.9%	13	0	1
Josh Adams	98	28.65%	9	1.75%	29.3%	37.5%	16	0	5

With Aaron Jones sidelined early against Chicago on Sunday, Jamaal Williams handled every single running back carry while playing almost 87% of the team's snaps. If he's on your waiver wire, you've got to snatch him up this week, even if it's to block your opponent.

Instead of giving the ball to Kenyan Drake after Frank Gore was injured in Week 15, Miami opted to feature rookie Kalen Ballage. Drake only played about 53% of Miami's snaps on Sunday, and he was out-attempted 12 to 1 versus Ballage. We should probably assume Ballage will be featured against Jacksonville this week as a result.

For the first time since Week 3, Derrick Henry out-snapped Dion Lewis. No, that's not a typo. He (Henry) played 70% of the team's snaps, when his season high before Week 15 was 52%. It's now his backfield, and it should be: Henry has a 45.5% Success Rate this season, while Lewis' is at 31.6%.

Wide Receiver Usage

Player	Targets	Target %	Snap %	Last Wk Rate	RZ Targets	< 10 Targets	GL Targets
Davante Adams	151	27.71%	93.4%	94.1%	28	8	2
DeAndre Hopkins	135	31.32%	99.2%	96.2%	23	15	9
Adam Thielen	145	26.61%	96.6%	91.3%	19	8	6
Tyreek Hill	121	23.45%	87.2%	88.3%	16	7	4
Julio Jones	152	27.84%	79.5%	47.8%	12	6	4
Michael Thomas	127	27.79%	88.6%	93.2%	25	12	7
Antonio Brown	149	25.08%	95.2%	95.3%	20	6	2
JuJu Smith-Schuster	141	23.74%	85%	93.8%	27	11	8
Mike Evans	120	22.14%	84.4%	90%	10	4	2
Keenan Allen	121	26.83%	79.1%	23%	15	7	4
Stefon Diggs	134	24.59%	82%	79.7%	15	6	4
Robert Woods	120	23.26%	97%	100%	11	8	3
Odell Beckham	124	24.36%	80.2%	N/A	20	8	5
Tyler Boyd	108	21.60%	85.8%	48.8%	10	3	1
Brandin Cooks	105	20.35%	91.3%	100%	14	6	2
T.Y. Hilton	106	18.86%	76.6%	56.9%	15	10	8
Amari Cooper	91	N/A	79.1%	78.3%	12	7	2
Emmanuel Sanders	98	19.48%	84.3%	N/A	11	5	3
Kenny Golladay	104	20.88%	91.2%	91.2%	13	6	3
Tyler Lockett	64	16.98%	84.8%	90.7%	6	3	0
Jarvis Landry	132	26.72%	87.6%	85.1%	17	6	3
Calvin Ridley	82	15.02%	61%	65.7%	7	3	2
Golden Tate	104	20.19%	64.9%	34.4%	11	7	2
Julian Edelman	92	17.83%	88.8%	93.5%	19	10	5
Corey Davis	100	26.11%	89.2%	92.9%	15	9	5
Mike Williams	57	12.64%	63.5%	89.2%	13	8	3
Adam Humphries	87	16.05%	68.5%	58%	12	6	4
Dede Westbrook	86	17.77%	76.5%	82.7%	11	5	0
Alshon Jeffery	82	15.92%	83.1%	100%	12	5	3
Larry Fitzgerald	94	21.86%	91.6%	95.7%	12	6	5
Sterling Shepard	91	17.88%	91.2%	100%	18	7	6
Demaryius Thomas	84	19.49%	78.1%	88.7%	11	4	3
A.J. Green	77	15.40%	60.9%	N/A	14	6	5
Chris Godwin	80	14.76%	62.1%	82%	14	10	3
DeSean Jackson	70	12.92%	43.5%	N/A	5	1	0
D.J. Moore	67	14.08%	65.7%	98.3%	5	2	1
Mohamed Sanu	76	13.92%	78.7%	89.6%	5	2	2
Allen Robinson	86	18.82%	76.4%	76.7%	11	5	2
Josh Gordon	71	13.76%	71.9%	91.9%	8	4	2
John Brown	88	17.25%	65.4%	62.3%	13	7	2
Taylor Gabriel	86	18.82%	79.6%	76.7%	8	5	3
Cooper Kupp	56	10.85%	72%	N/A	12	7	0
Tyrell Williams	60	13.30%	75.9%	87.8%	6	2	1
Willie Snead	93	18.24%	68.1%	76.6%	7	0	0
Michael Crabtree	94	18.43%	67.2%	58.4%	9	4	1
Jordy Nelson	66	13.25%	80.4%	96.6%	7	4	1
Christian Kirk	68	15.81%	79.1%	N/A	5	2	0
Kenny Stills	55	13.72%	80.2%	96.2%	4	3	1
Robby Anderson	72	15.62%	64.6%	94.7%	6	4	3
Nelson Agholor	84	16.31%	90.2%	98.4%	9	4	2
Zay Jones	84	19.44%	87.8%	97.1%	14	4	2
Cole Beasley	75	16.38%	65.2%	63.8%	9	4	2
Devin Funchess	75	15.76%	67.1%	19%	12	7	4
Donte Moncrief	82	16.94%	77.8%	76.9%	7	5	3
Marvin Jones	62	12.45%	72.8%	N/A	11	6	1
Sammy Watkins	55	10.66%	49.6%	N/A	10	4	0
Antonio Callaway	70	14.17%	69.7%	73.1%	7	4	3
Courtland Sutton	71	14.12%	73.2%	86.3%	7	4	3
Danny Amendola	71	17.71%	73.7%	73.6%	2	2	0
Doug Baldwin	56	14.85%	74.4%	81.3%	11	7	3

Robby Anderson hit his highest snap rate of the season on Sunday, and he's now seen 7, 7, and 11 targets over his last three games. The Packers have a bottom-10 secondary according to numberFire's expected points model, making Anderson a very viable option this week.

Nick Foles has much stronger numbers when targeting Alshon Jeffery compared to his other pass-catchers, including an 11.1 yards per attempt rate. When looking strictly at this 2018 season, Jeffery has two games where he's hit the 100-yard mark. One happened this past week with Foles, and the other was in an overtime game where he essentially played an extra quarter. Against a beatable Texans secondary, Jeffery is in a good spot this week and should be in your lineup.

Adam Thielen has struggled, at least when you compare his production to where he was at across the first half of the season. Since Week 8, Thielen has just one 100-yard game after starting the season with eight consecutive ones. What's happened? Well, it could be partially due to his work in the slot. Since Week 8, 51.8% of his snaps have come from the slot, and he's seen 23 of his 47 (48.9%) targets from that area of the field. That's all according to Pro Football Focus. From Weeks 1 through 8, that slot snap rate was 61.9%, and 59 of his 98 (60.2%) looks were in the slot. So Thielen's seeing fewer slot snaps and, in turn, he's also getting fewer targets. He's still someone you need to start, but that helps explain his "struggles".

Tight End Usage

Player	Targets	Target %	Snap %	Last Wk Rate	RZ Targets	< 10 Targets	GL Targets
Travis Kelce	132	25.58%	95.9%	100%	23	11	5
Zach Ertz	136	26.41%	93.1%	92.2%	23	8	3
George Kittle	110	23.86%	86.6%	95.2%	12	7	4
Eric Ebron	99	17.62%	58.1%	52.8%	20	5	3
Jared Cook	93	18.67%	75.4%	88.1%	15	11	3
Austin Hooper	80	14.65%	78%	50.7%	13	10	5
Trey Burton	66	14.44%	80.9%	76.7%	12	7	3
Rob Gronkowski	67	12.98%	79.4%	100%	8	2	0
O.J. Howard	48	8.86%	60.8%	N/A	7	4	2
Vance McDonald	63	10.61%	54.9%	35.9%	8	3	2
Jordan Reed	84	18.34%	56%	N/A	7	5	1
Jimmy Graham	82	15.05%	74.6%	69.1%	10	6	4
David Njoku	78	15.79%	80.5%	83.6%	5	3	1
Kyle Rudolph	67	12.29%	87.7%	73.9%	12	7	4
Christopher Herndon	46	9.98%	52.4%	69.3%	5	0	0
C.J. Uzomah	58	11.60%	83.8%	86.2%	5	3	2
Evan Engram	50	9.82%	53.8%	69.2%	6	2	2
Jesse James	38	6.40%	53.7%	34.4%	5	2	1
Cameron Brate	42	7.75%	45.2%	82%	11	4	3
Mark Andrews	43	8.43%	34.9%	37.7%	7	3	1
Ben Watson	41	8.97%	48.5%	43.2%	9	6	4
Greg Olsen	38	7.98%	56.7%	N/A	6	3	3
Dallas Goedert	38	7.38%	46.1%	60.9%	6	2	2
Gerald Everett	44	8.53%	29.6%	44.7%	10	6	1
Vernon Davis	36	7.86%	49%	44.1%	1	0	0
Ricky Seals-Jones	69	16.05%	64.7%	82.6%	4	3	1
Antonio Gates	39	8.65%	35.5%	56.8%	8	7	4
Jeff Heuerman	48	9.54%	76.9%	N/A	12	7	2
Jordan Thomas	25	5.80%	46.4%	45.3%	7	4	1
Jonnu Smith	31	8.09%	75.2%	N/A	5	5	2

Guys, O.J. Howard hasn't played football for a month, and he's still a top-10 fantasy tight end. That's how bad the position has been.

Since Week 11 -- which is when Geoff Swaim was injured -- Blake Jarwin has dominated the routes run at tight end for Dallas. According to Pro Football Focus, over the last four weeks, Jarwin's run 109 routes, when the next-closest Cowboys tight end has 55. That's led to back to back seven-target games for Jarwin.

Deep Ball Passing

Player	15+ Yd Att	15+ Yd Att %	15+ Comp %	15+ % of Tot Yds	15+ Yd TD %
Ben Roethlisberger	97	16.72%	39.18%	28.51%	40.00%
Andrew Luck	88	15.80%	45.45%	28.73%	20.59%
Kirk Cousins	76	13.94%	44.74%	23.97%	38.46%
Matt Ryan	101	18.77%	43.56%	28.63%	23.33%
Aaron Rodgers	114	21.23%	41.23%	37.09%	34.78%
Patrick Mahomes	110	21.32%	48.18%	34.16%	22.22%
Tom Brady	89	17.35%	43.82%	28.25%	33.33%
Jared Goff	99	19.34%	46.46%	30.52%	25.93%
Eli Manning	92	18.33%	46.74%	32.15%	16.67%
Case Keenum	71	14.17%	40.85%	27.06%	33.33%
Derek Carr	68	13.77%	44.12%	24.15%	21.05%
Matthew Stafford	69	14.05%	49.28%	28.69%	26.32%
Cam Newton	75	15.92%	40.00%	20.09%	20.83%
Dak Prescott	65	14.22%	38.46%	24.70%	35.29%
Drew Brees	75	16.67%	57.33%	32.49%	29.03%
Philip Rivers	83	18.57%	55.42%	33.54%	29.03%
Deshaun Watson	71	16.51%	50.70%	27.95%	25.00%
Baker Mayfield	99	24.32%	45.45%	38.96%	33.33%
Carson Wentz	64	15.96%	39.06%	25.28%	14.29%
Mitchell Trubisky	85	22.43%	35.29%	33.19%	26.09%
Joe Flacco	70	18.47%	34.29%	25.72%	16.67%
Russell Wilson	77	20.42%	48.05%	37.79%	45.16%
Blake Bortles	56	15.18%	37.50%	24.49%	30.77%
Andy Dalton	62	16.99%	43.55%	27.32%	28.57%
Sam Darnold	70	19.94%	41.43%	33.39%	35.71%
Josh Rosen	63	18.75%	41.27%	33.59%	40.00%
Alex Smith	61	18.60%	32.79%	25.32%	20.00%
Marcus Mariota	55	17.30%	47.27%	28.37%	18.18%
Jameis Winston	65	22.03%	41.54%	29.90%	21.43%
Josh Allen	76	30.04%	31.58%	42.99%	66.67%
Ryan Fitzpatrick	65	26.42%	53.85%	44.13%	35.29%
Ryan Tannehill	40	18.10%	32.50%	25.03%	43.75%
Nick Mullens	24	11.82%	54.17%	21.09%	20.00%
Jeff Driskel	25	18.80%	24.00%	17.81%	25.00%
Lamar Jackson	16	12.90%	37.50%	22.74%	20.00%
Cody Kessler	14	12.28%	28.57%	15.92%	0.00%
Nick Foles	20	17.70%	35.00%	29.40%	0.00%

Nick Mullens is a fun story, but he's getting a good bit of help from his teammates. He's throwing it deep on fewer than 12% of his passes, and just 21% of his yards have come on those types of throws. The conservative approach has worked, but it shows that he's still limited the offense overall.

Russell Wilson has had a really interesting season. He's been unbelievably efficient in a run-first offense, and while he's throwing it 15-plus air yards on 20.4% of his throws, he's getting the most out of those tosses. He ranks eighth in deep-ball rate, but he's fourth in percentage of yards coming from those tosses. It's just another example of Wilson getting the most of his throws this year.

Running Back Touchdown Regression

Regression analysis doesn't always have to be so complicated. As you'd expect, there's a decent correlation between yards gained and touchdowns scored. The regression analysis in The Report looks at running back and wide receiver yards gained, shows how many touchdowns they've scored, and then finds how many touchdowns they should have scored based on trends from the last seven NFL seasons.

Player	Rush Yds	TD	Should Have	Difference	Rec Yds	TD	Should Have	Difference	Total Difference
Todd Gurley	1251	17	8.37	8.63	580	4	2.54	1.46	10.09
Alvin Kamara	860	12	5.76	6.24	627	4	2.74	1.26	7.50
Kareem Hunt	824	7	5.52	1.48	378	7	1.65	5.35	6.83
Melvin Gordon	802	9	5.37	3.63	453	4	1.98	2.02	5.65
James Conner	909	12	6.08	5.92	467	1	2.04	-1.04	4.87
Alex Collins	411	7	2.75	4.25	105	1	0.46	0.54	4.79
Derrick Henry	882	11	5.90	5.10	78	0	0.34	-0.34	4.76
James White	354	4	2.37	1.63	699	6	3.06	2.94	4.57
Kenyan Drake	469	4	3.14	0.86	394	5	1.72	3.28	4.14
James Develin	8	4	0.05	3.95	59	0	0.26	-0.26	3.69
Nick Chubb	860	8	5.76	2.24	150	2	0.66	1.34	3.59
Javorius Allen	110	3	0.74	2.26	196	2	0.86	1.14	3.41
Aaron Jones	728	8	4.87	3.13	206	1	0.90	0.10	3.23
Christian McCaffrey	979	7	6.55	0.45	768	6	3.36	2.64	3.09
Kapri Bibbs	101	3	0.68	2.32	102	1	0.45	0.55	2.88
Damien Williams	102	3	0.68	2.32	115	1	0.50	0.50	2.81
Marlon Mack	755	7	5.05	1.95	100	1	0.44	0.56	2.51
Saquon Barkley	1155	9	7.73	1.27	654	4	2.86	1.14	2.41
Phillip Lindsay	991	9	6.63	2.37	230	1	1.01	-0.01	2.36
Alfred Blue	473	2	3.17	-1.17	116	0	0.51	-0.51	-1.67
Gus Edwards	550	2	3.68	-1.68	7	0	0.03	-0.03	-1.71
Jacquizz Rodgers	101	0	0.68	-0.68	247	0	1.08	-1.08	-1.76
Bilal Powell	343	0	2.30	-2.30	110	1	0.48	0.52	-1.78
Marcus Murphy	250	0	1.67	-1.67	26	0	0.11	-0.11	-1.79
Lamar Miller	917	4	6.14	-2.14	163	1	0.71	0.29	-1.85
Jeffery Wilson	230	0	1.54	-1.54	87	0	0.38	-0.38	-1.92
Chris Ivory	340	1	2.28	-1.28	159	0	0.70	-0.70	-1.97
LeSean McCoy	479	2	3.21	-1.21	210	0	0.92	-0.92	-2.12
Ezekiel Elliott	1350	6	9.04	-3.04	543	3	2.38	0.62	-2.41
Theo Riddick	149	0	1.00	-1.00	377	0	1.65	-1.65	-2.65
Dion Lewis	512	1	3.43	-2.43	357	1	1.56	-0.56	-2.99
Jalen Richard	247	0	1.65	-1.65	550	0	2.41	-2.41	-4.06
Frank Gore	722	0	4.83	-4.83	124	1	0.54	0.46	-4.37

With Frank Gore's season now over, he's become just the 10th player in NFL history to rush for 700 or more yards without finding the end zone on the ground. Among the 11 instances of this happening (one player, Joe Washington, did it twice), Gore's 722 rushing yards ranks eighth on the list. It was truly an outlier season touchdown-wise for Gore.

Ezekiel Elliott has scored nine times this year, but he actually should have two to three more touchdowns. He's essentially the only elite running back who is underperforming in the touchdown column. Perhaps some positive regression hits this weekend in a plus matchup against Tampa Bay.

Wide Receiver Touchdown Regression

Player	Rec Yds	TD	Should Have	Difference
Antonio Brown	1112	13	6.67	6.33
Mike Williams	592	9	3.55	5.45
John Ross	206	6	1.24	4.76
Tyler Lockett	800	9	4.80	4.20
Davante Adams	1315	12	7.89	4.11
Jaron Brown	150	5	0.90	4.10
Calvin Ridley	699	8	4.19	3.81
Aldrick Robinson	231	5	1.39	3.61
Anthony Miller	399	6	2.39	3.61
Chris Conley	280	5	1.68	3.32
Tyreek Hill	1304	11	7.82	3.18
DeAndre Hopkins	1321	11	7.92	3.08
Kenny Stills	521	6	3.12	2.88
Cooper Kupp	566	6	3.39	2.61
David Moore	422	5	2.53	2.47
Dante Pettis	446	5	2.67	2.33
Marvin Jones	508	5	3.05	1.95
AJ Green	694	6	4.16	1.84
Marquise Goodwin	366	4	2.19	1.81
Curtis Samuel	381	4	2.28	1.72
Emmanuel Sanders	868	4	5.21	-1.21
Kelvin Benjamin	371	1	2.22	-1.22
Taywan Taylor	394	1	2.36	-1.36
Chester Rogers	399	1	2.39	-1.39
Equanimeous St. Brown	234	0	1.40	-1.40
Michael Gallup	404	1	2.42	-1.42
Taylor Gabriel	599	2	3.59	-1.59
Martavis Bryant	266	0	1.60	-1.60
Robert Woods	1106	5	6.63	-1.63
JuJu Smith-Schuster	1274	6	7.64	-1.64
Keelan Cole	446	1	2.67	-1.67
Quincy Enunwa	449	1	2.69	-1.69
Maurice Harris	304	0	1.82	-1.82
Jarvis Landry	827	3	4.96	-1.96
Danny Amendola	509	1	3.05	-2.05
D.J. Moore	688	2	4.13	-2.13
Nelson Agholor	580	1	3.48	-2.48
Willie Snead	626	1	3.75	-2.75
Mike Evans	1328	5	7.96	-2.96
Julio Jones	1511	6	9.06	-3.06
Brandin Cooks	1107	3	6.64	-3.64

Brandin Cooks has officially passed Julio Jones as the most unfortunate touchdown scorer at wide receiver this year.